Political feasibility of structural adjustment in africa: an application of SAM mixed multipliers

The implementation of structural adjustment programs (SAPs) has often been undermined by opposition from politically powerful groups who are favored by existing policies. To assess the political sustainability of SAPs this paper uses social accounting matrices for three African countries to model the income effects of stylized SAPs on different socioeconomic groups. The analysis reveals wide variation in the likelihood for typical SAPs to be acceptable to political elites while generating growth in the rest of the economy. The presence of a rural elite or strong farm-nonfarm linkages can enhance the political sustainability of SAPs.     

对我国经济增长方式转变的新思考

我国经济增长方式长期存在着由粗放型向集约型转变的困扰,表现为经济增长过度依赖于投入的增加,生产技术水平偏低,劳动者素质结构改善缓慢,经济比例关系没有理顺,产业结构不合理现象突出等。转变增长方式的关键在于增强国内自主创新能力,调整和优化产业结构,以科技进步推动经济增长由低质低效向高质高效的转化,以产业结构的调整和优化保障增长目标的实现。     

Adjustment Process of the Price to Book Ratio for Regulated Utilities

This study tests whether shifts in the price to book ratio (PB) of electric utilities follow a partial adjustment rather than the pure adjustment process implied by the cost-plus pricing policy of regulation. The results for utilities are compared to benchmark results for manufacturing firms to highlight the similarity/dissimilarity in the time-series behavior of PB for regulated and non-regulated firms. It is shown that shifts in PB follow a partial adjustment process. The adjustment period is longer for utilities than for manufacturing firms and extends well beyond the average regulatory lag. Moreover, shifts in PB are associated with changes in future profits and investments.     

Do Vietnamese upland farmers benefit from high world market prices for maize?

For rural households in the north of Vietnam, maize cropping is the main source of income. In the face of the world market price increases of the recent past, we analyze the regional marketing chain of this commodity qualitatively and econometrically investigating to what extent smallholder farmers in developing countries are affected by international price movements. Vietnamese maize markets are found to be well integrated. Recent price hikes have fully transmitted along the regional supply chain so that farmers profited. Nevertheless, adverse factors such as increasing input prices have neutralized these benefits resulting in a decline in real income of smallholders.     

Devaluation, Capital Formation, and the Current Account

This paper re-examines the effects of devaluation and a rise in the rate of devaluation on capital formation and the current account in an optimizing monetary model of a small open economy with endogenous labor, investment with adjustment costs, and perfect capital mobility. It is shown that devaluation leads to capital accumulation and a current-account deficit in the long run and during the adjustment process, whereas a rise in the rate of devaluation has an ambiguous impact on capital formation and the current account depending on the relationship between consumption and real balances in the utility function. If consumption and real balances are separable or complements, then a rise in the rate of devaluation produces capital decumulation and a current-account surplus in the long run as well as on the transition path. These results stand in sharp contrast with Calvo (1981). JEL Classification Numbers: F41     

房地产价格与通货膨胀、产出的关系——理论分析与基于中国数据的实证检验

本文运用一个简单的数理模型与四象限模型分析了房地产价格影响通货膨胀与产出的机制,结论是:房地产价格通过影响总需求对物价水平产生压力,其中,房价对储蓄的边际影响十分重要。在此基础上,综合运用相关性分析、协整检验、脉冲响应函数与方差分解等方法实证检验我国房地产价格与通货膨胀、产出的关系,其结论是:短期内,房地产价格对通货膨胀与产出的影响十分有限,长期则对通货膨胀与产出产生重要的影响,并且,在房价与通货膨胀、产出之间存在正反馈作用机制。这意味着在一个平稳的宏观经济环境中,这种正反馈机制可能会引发经济过热和房价泡沫。     

我国产业结构失衡的实证分析与调整对策

产业结构失衡问题不仅造成了我国不合理的产业间比例,也导致了更深层次的产业结构矛盾,影响了中国经济的可持续发展能力。因此,要重新调整投资率、努力培育居民消费需求,以技术进步提升我国的产业国际竞争力,并在资源约束下不断推进产业结构升级,从而形成合理的产业结构与可持续型的经济发展模式。     

当前我国物价形势分析

本文详细介绍了改革开放不同阶段我国物价运行的特征,分析了历次物价上涨的原因,且进一步从工业类消费品与食品类消费品的物理属性及消费特点进行了深入研究,并对影响目前物价的各因素进行剖析,进而提出了有效控制物价的政策建议。     

论西部大开发中重庆产业布局调整及发展战略

经济结构调整是区域经济可持续发展的重要保证，产业布局调整则是经济结构调整的重要方面。依据重庆市情、劳动地域分工、建设长江上游经济中心要求和重庆实施西部大开发战略基本思路，划分和界定重庆三大产业区，以此作为产业布局调整的一种地域形式，在综合评价三大产业区产业现状和发展优势基础上，对三大产业区产业发展战略进行初步探索。     

人民币汇率变动的物价传递效应:多结构变化协整回归分析

现有研究物价传递效应的文献以线性模型为主,甚少关注物价传递过程中可能存在的结构变化,本文在充分考虑我国转轨时期所面临的各种经济冲击的条件下,利用最新发展的多结构变化协整回归方法考察了1994年1月至2008年12月间人民币汇率变动的物价传递效应。研究结果表明,人民币汇率变动的物价传递效应分别在1998年8月、2002年10月、2005年8月及2007年7月发生了四次结构变化,传递效应虽总体趋减,但2007年7月后出现了反复,且符号也发生了改变。在上述结论基础上,本文提出了相关政策建议。