Adaptive model-based seasonal adjustment of time series: An Empirical Comparison with XII-ARIMA and SIGEX

Several model-based approaches have been proposed in recent years for adjusting and decomposing time series data. Using real world data, this paper presents results of a large scale empirical comparison of the XII-ARIMA and SIGEX procedures to DESAEP, a new adaptive model-based method that combines stochastic and deterministic effects. The comparison reveals no substantial inconsistencies in seasonally adjusted values produced by the 3 methods. As for the magnitude in revisions in both concurrent and forecasted seasonally adjusted values, an overall reduction by a factor of 2 to 3 was obtained with DESAEP depending on the level of variability in the data.     

A protectionist foodgrain price policy : The case of rice in Panama

Panama has pursued a protectionist price policy for rice, with domestic prices well above the world market level. The government marketing authority purchases sufficient rice to support the established price level and stores or exports the surplus. Although producers benefit, this policy imposes significant costs on consumers, government expenditures and economic efficiency. One policy recommendation is to bring domestic prices in line with the international level. Although free trade is one possibility, a market stabilization programme could be retained. At a minimum Panama's rice price should reflect domestic demand and not production costs. The unfavourable rice-fertilizer price ratio also deserves attention.     

From Deficits to Debt and Back: Political Incentives under Numerical Fiscal Rules

Under numerical fiscal rules, such as those underpinning EMU,governments have strong temptations to use accounting tricksto meet the fiscal constraints. Given these political incentives,fiscal variables that in the past were regarded as a mere residualacquire a strategic role. This is the case of the so-calledstock-flow adjustment (SFA) which reconciles deficit and debtdevelopments. We develop a simple theoretical model where deficitsand two distinct SFA components (one that could be used to reducethe deficit figures and the other to impact debt figures instead)are determined as a result of a constrained optimisation byfiscal authorities. Econometric evidence provides results consistentwith the model findings. The SFA component related to the purposeto hide deficits rises with the recorded deficit, while thesales of financial assets designed to keep the debt under controlrise with both debt and deficit. When deficits are in excessof the 3 percent limit, accounting gimmicks become more sensitiveto the size of deficits. The SGP per se does not appear to increasethe extent to which higher deficits trigger more accountinggimmicks. However, the SGP seems associated with a more intenseuse of accounting gimmicks irrespective of the level of deficit.Such accounting practices have greatly contributed to the lossof credibility of Economic and Monetary Union's fiscal rules.If properly implemented, the reformed Pact, which stresses durableadjustment and long-run sustainability, should help curb suchperverse incentives. (JEL codes: E61, H62, H87)     

内外经济平衡中存在的矛盾

近年我国贸易顺差不断扩大,同时国内经济又出现投资过热,商务部将"调投资、促消费、减顺差"定为2007年我国经济工作的三大着力点,以平衡内外经济.但是"减顺差"与"调投资"和"促消费"都有一定的矛盾.从平衡贸易角度看,在三者中"促消费"是核心,但也是最难的.政府对公共基础设施的投资如果能够适当扩大,还是有利于减少贸易顺差的.     

The Euro Changeover and Numerical Intuition for Prices in the Old and New Currencies

This study examines how numerical intuition for prices in euros and in the Portuguese currency escudos developed in Portugal after the euro changeover. Estimates of prices of 40 different products were collected in the two currencies and at four different times from November 2001 to April 2004. The results regarding price estimates in euros were more in accordance with a relearning hypothesis considering that price estimates become progressively more accurate by a process that is related to purchase frequency. It was also suggested that this is a very slow process and that prices in the former currency are not simply forgotten. On the contrary, the escudos remained a general benchmark for an extended period. The results regarding estimated price intuition and use of intuition in estimating prices are also consistent with a slow adaptation process. Implications for future euro changeovers are discussed.     

Retail pricing and clearance sales: the multiple product case

This paper deals with the phenomenon of clearance sales of fashion type goods which have an intertemporal aspect similar to durable goods. Using the Van Praag and Bode (1992) model, the case of clearance sales in a store selling more than one commodity is analyzed. Conditions and rules of thumb are shown in which it is optimal to increase the price of one product while decreasing the price of another. A linear demand model and a numerical example are presented, showing that the price of one product decreases while the price of the other product may increase or decrease in different periods.     

Bartlett adjustments for systems of linear equations with linear restrictions

Simple matrix formulae are derived for calculating a Bartlett adjustment to the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing linear parameter restrictions in a system of linear equations. For the special case of column and/or row restrictions on the matrix of coefficients the adjustment is a simple function of matrix dimensions being invariant to sample observations and the error covariance matrix. An example of testing for homogeneity and symmetry in a demand system is given.     

Does the exchange rate regime matter for real shocks? Evidence from windstorms and earthquakes

Does the choice of exchange rate regime affect an economy's adjustment to real shocks? Exploiting the unpredictability and economic exogeniety of windstorms-hurricanes and typhoons-and earthquakes this paper assesses the often contrasting answers found in the theoretical literature. There is robust evidence that exchange rate flexibility helps an economy better adjust to real shocks. And consistent with the channels emphasized in the classic literature on exchange rates and shocks, differences in the behavior of the export sector help explain the different reactions between the two regimes.     

从高管眼中透视上市公司的亏损

文章从高管的角度透视上市公司的亏损,按亏损对上市公司价值的影响将其分为折价型亏损和溢价型亏损,在分析各类亏损产生的原因基础上,指出对于溢价型亏损,高管人员不必惊慌,需要耐心期待;时于折价型亏损.则需要高管人员采取恰当措施进行拯救.     

医疗服务市场的高价格形成机制——一个基于信息扩散的解释框架

本文指出,一个自由的医疗服务市场会导致过高的价格水平,其原因在于,医疗服务的价格变化信息在患者之间扩散是一个缓慢的时间过程,致使医院的医疗服务需求对价格变化不敏感,从而降低了医疗服务市场的竞争性。本文同时指出,政府只要能够改变医疗服务价格信息的扩散机制,就能够建立一个以市场机制为基础的高效率的医疗卫生体制。