人民币实际汇率调整趋势与中国经济转型

1978年以来的人民币实际汇率呈现出长期的贬值态势,本文结合中国经济改革的历程深入分析了实际汇率贬值的内在机制,认为市场化进程中的制度变迁和技术进步是其根本原因。而目前经济的内外失衡所引发的实际汇率和名义汇率的升值压力,本质上是深层次市场化改革推进受阻后经济结构扭曲的外在表现。本文认为,以汇率形成机制改革为主要内容的名义的市场化改革只能缓解而无法根除这种压力,推行土地、劳动力和自然资源等要素价格在内的实际的市场改革才是纠正内外失衡,缓解汇率升值压力的治本之道。     

The side effects of quantitative easing: Evidence from the UK bond market

We examine the returns to UK government bonds before, during and between the phases of quantitative easing to identify the side effects for the market itself. We show that the onset of QE led to a sustained reduction in the costs of trading and removed some return regularities. However, controlling for a wide range of market activity, including issuance and QE announcements, we find evidence that investors could have earned excess returns after costs by trading in response to the purchase auction calendar. Drawing on economic theory, we explore the implications of these findings for both the efficiency of the market and the costs of government debt management in both the short and long run.     

Short-term overreaction to specific events: Evidence from an emerging market

This paper investigates the short-term overreaction to specific events and whether stock prices are predictable in the Egyptian stock exchange (EGX). We find evidence of the short-term overreaction in the EGX. Losers (“bad news” portfolios) significantly outperform winners (“good news” portfolios) and investors can earn abnormal return by selling the winners and buying losers. Terrorist attacks have negative and significant abnormal returns for three days post event followed by price reversals on day four post event. Whereas, the tensions in the Middle East region have a negative and significant abnormal returns on event day followed by price reversals on day one post event. Moreover, the formation of a new government has no effect on the average abnormal returns post event in the EGX. The results also show that small firms tend to have greater price reversals compared to large firms. Overall, our results provide evidence of the leakage of information in the EGX.     

外汇储备增长对我国物价影响的实证分析

2007年以来,我国物价水平出现持续攀升的势头。2008年1～4月份,居民消费价格水平同比上涨8.2%。与物价上涨相对应的是我国外汇储备水平创出了历史新高,截至2008年6月末,我国外汇储备余额达1.8万亿美元。那么,外汇储备增长与物价上涨之间有没有直接的联系?本文从短期和长期两个视角,理论和实证相结合探讨了我国外汇储备增长对物价上涨的影响及其作用机制。     

反倾销措施对产业的关联影响--反倾销税价格效应的投入产出分析

WTO反倾销协议允许成员国在倾销造成国内产业实质性损害或产生实质性损害威胁时采取反倾销措施。反倾销措施的实施在保护国内受损害产业的同时 ,会损害下游产业和消费者的利益。本文以化工行业为例 ,利用中国投入产出表定量分析反倾销税价格效应对国民经济各产业部门的关联影响。我国对外反倾销涉案产品大多是中间产品 ,因此在反倾销措施执行中应当全面考虑包括下游产业利益在内的公共利益问题。     

When quality signals talk: Evidence from the Turin hotel industry

This study analyzes the relationship between quality signals and price setting through the application of hedonic price functions. The model proposals also include variables relating to land use policies and tourism development strategies. A simultaneous equation model endogenously estimates quality signals. This method is appropriate for analyzing emerging urban destinations, as characterized by the presence of an expanding hotel industry. The results are based on a dataset of 145 hotels in Turin, Italy. The empirical findings reveal that reputation-based quality signals help explain tariff levels. Price proposals also include a premium for quality assured hotels, defining some limits of the current hotel classification system. The empirical evidence has significant marketing implications for the hospitality industry’s competitiveness, since the results clarify the impact of quality signals on price level.     

Immigration and international inbound tourism: Empirical evidence from Australia

Immigration can potentially influence tourism flows. However, in spite of the vast number of studies on tourism demand modelling, the immigration-tourism linkage has not received much attention in the empirical literature. This paper seeks to address this gap. A dynamic demand model is developed and estimated using data from 1980 to 2008 for the 15 main markets of Australia. The explanatory variables included are income, own price, price of a substitute destination, airfare and immigration. The estimation results empirically establish the connection between immigration and inbound tourism. The short run and long-run immigration elasticities generated are 0.028 and 0.09 respectively. Additionally this paper demonstrates that omission of prices of substitutes affects the value of the own price elasticity of demand. The results have implications for future research and for stakeholders who can improve the efficiency of their planning exercises by taking into account additional information on immigration trends.     

Are USDA reports still news to changing crop markets?

This study investigates whether major USDA reports still provide important news to changing crop markets. The news component of each report, or market “surprise,” is measured as a difference between the USDA estimate and its private expectation in corn, soybeans, and wheat markets. Changes in the relevance of USDA information are assessed by examining changes in the magnitude of market surprises and shifts in the futures price reaction to these surprises, which isolates the impact of each report. The stable size of market surprises over time suggests that competition from alternative data sources has not reduced the news component of USDA crop reports. Increasing price reaction to most reports, including those facing competition from alternative information sources, suggests that value of public information may be enhanced in uncertain markets affected by structural changes.     

Understanding heterogeneity in price changes and firm responses to a national unhealthy food tax in Mexico

To address the high prevalence of overweight and obesity in Mexico, an eight percent ad valorem excise tax on non-essential energy-dense foods came into effect on 1 January 2014. This paper estimates price changes after the tax implementation among the top four food categories and by leading vs. non-leading firms using purchase information from over 6000 urban households in the 2012–2015 Nielsen Mexico Consumer Panel. We create product-city-month specific prices that correct for potential biases associated with household and retailer characteristics. Using these corrected prices, we conduct before and after quasi-experimental analyses and find that price increases were larger than eight percent for cookies but were less than eight percent for ready-to-eat cereals, salty snacks, and pre-packaged sweet bread. For the latter food group, event-study analyses on the gradual price change over time suggest that price changes might be the result of an increasing price trend rather than the tax implementation. Firm-level analyses mostly show that price increases by the leading firms were larger than the overall increase at the food market level, helping explain variability in post-tax declines in food purchases as reported in other research. We also find that price changes are generally underestimated when we do not correct prices for biases associated with households and retailers. These results improve our understanding of the mechanisms behind heterogeneous changes in purchases after the tax implementation. Additionally, these results can assist policymakers when designing or improving taxes on non-essential energy-dense foods at a time when these policy options are high on the agenda in many places.