地方公共服务、要素流动与要素空间配置——基于本地交易成本的均衡分析

通过"两区域、两要素与两部门"模型研究发现,即使存在区域内与区域间两类交易成本,增加公共服务仍有利于吸引要素流入,并产生要素空间聚集效应;增加公共支出以改善区内贸易条件对要素流动及其空间分布具有不同的影响;我国地方公共支出规模与全要素生产率之间存在明显的长期因果关系.     

How do great shocks influence the correlation between oil and international stock markets?

We investigate the impacts of great shocks (2003 Iraq War and 2008 Financial Crisis) on the correlations between oil and US/China stock markets, utilizing a novel MADCC (mixed asymmetry dynamic conditional correlation) model. This model successfully captures the coexistence of opposite signed asymmetries. We find that great shocks indeed increased the correlations. Further, results from the news impact surfaces indicate that correlations between oil and stock markets are higher to joint negative shocks; however, correlation between stock markets has stronger response to joint positive shocks.     

The identification of fiscal and monetary policy in a structural VAR

Good economic management depends on understanding shocks from monetary policy, fiscal policy and other sources affecting the economy and their subsequent interactions. This paper presents a new methodology to disentangle such shocks in a structural VAR framework. The method combines identification via sign restrictions, cointegration and traditional exclusion restrictions within a system which explicitly models stationary and non-stationary variables and accounts for both permanent and temporary shocks. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated on a small open economy where policy makers are actively considering the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies.     

Inflation Adjustment and Labour Market Structures: Evidence from a Multi‐country Study*

The impact of labour market structures on the response of inflation to macroeconomic shocks is analysed empirically. Results based on a 20‐country panel show that if labour market coordination is high, the effect on inflation of movements in unemployment, import prices, tax rates and productivity is dampened, both on impact and dynamically. In contrast, monopoly power in labour supply, measured by the percentage unionisation of the workforce, appears to amplify the response of inflation to its reduced‐form determinants. These findings are attributed to the behaviour of wages following movements in demand‐ and supply‐side conditions.     

The dilemma of exchange rate arrangements in East Asia

This paper analyzes exchange rate flexibility in East Asia and explores what has changed since the Asian financial crisis. Our focus is not on the choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime in East Asia, but rather on exchange rate flexibility and management in the region. We find that exchange rate management in East Asia differs based on the country and the time period. We identify major concerns about current exchange rate arrangements in East Asia, including asymmetric responses to external shocks, competitive devaluation, and the dilemma of choosing between asset dollarization and liability dollarization. The paper concludes with some policy implications for an exchange rate arrangement in East Asia.     

基于时变参数的我国全要素生产率估计

本文应用时变参数状态空间模型,利用1953~2005年中国宏观经济数据,估计了样本区间内我国的全要素生产率(TFP),并与传统的索洛残差方法的计算结果进行了比较。分析表明:时变参数方法得到的TFP增长率计算结果由于不包含方程误差,比索洛残差方法的结果精确;TFP增长率的变化趋势,基本和GDP的增长趋势相同,只是有所滞后,滞后期一般为一年。     

Productivity, terms of trade and the ‘home market effect’

This paper analyzes the international transmission and welfare implications of productivity gains and changes in market size when macroeconomic adjustment occurs both along the intensive margin of trade (changes in the relative price of existing varieties of tradable goods) and the extensive margin (creation and destruction of varieties). We draw a distinction between productivity gains that enhance manufacturing efficiency and gains that lower the cost of firms' entry and of product differentiation. Countries with lower manufacturing costs have higher GDP but supply their products at lower international prices. Instead, countries with lower entry costs supply a larger array of goods at improved terms of trade. Output growth driven by demographic expansions, as well as government spending, is associated with an improvement in international relative prices and firms' entry. While trade liberalization may result in a smaller array of goods available to consumers, efficiency gains from deeper economic integration benefit consumers via lower goods prices. The international transmission mechanism and the welfare spillovers vary under different asset market structures, depending on trade costs, the elasticity of labor supply, and consumers' taste for varieties.     

Evaluating the efficiency and productivity change within government subsidy recipients of a national technology innovation research and development program

This study analyzes the efficiency and productivity change within government subsidy recipients of a national technology innovation research and development (R&D) program. We examine 6,990 government‐sponsored, completed R&D projects during the last three performance follow‐up survey years from 2010 to 2012, and present a design of the sample of panel data to cope with the typical R&D performance time lag using a set of massive observations associated with completed R&D projects for the past 7 years from 2005 to 2011. In particular, data envelopment analysis is adopted to measure the efficiency and productivity change, which is measured in the Malmquist index. Parametric and nonparametric statistical tests are carried out to check for statistically significant differences among the characteristics regarding the types of government subsidy recipients. This study's major findings are as follows. First, during the entire period analyzed (2010–2012), there was a similar yearly pattern of statistically significant differences in the government subsidy means among the recipient types. In contrast, there were no obviously equivalent differences in the efficiency and productivity change. Second, the productivity had increased year on year, but the increments were reduced from year to year. Third, the productivity change was induced mainly by the Frontier‐shift, which indicates overall technology innovation progress, compared with the Catch‐up, which only indicates a simple increase in the efficiency. In particular, in this empirical analysis, the recipient types of ‘national laboratory’ and ‘large company’ had relatively larger sizes of government subsidies per project. However, the efficiency and productivity change of these types was not better than the others. This implies, therefore, that the government should control the ratio of the subsidy to the total R&D budget with an appropriate upper limit.

• I empirically evaluate the productivity change within a national technology innovation R&D program.
• I design a sample of panel data to cope with the typical R&D performance time lag using massive observations.
• There is no obvious relationship between the government subsidy size and R&D productivity change.
• Some particular types of government subsidy recipient are inferior in terms of R&D productivity change.
• It practically implies that the government should control the ratio of the subsidy to the total R&D budget.

     

Oil shocks,policy uncertainty and stock returns in China

This paper examines the interdependence of China's policy uncertainty, the global oil market and stock market returns in China. A structural VAR model is estimated that shows that a positive shock to economic policy uncertainty in China has a delayed negative effect on global oil production, real oil prices and real stock market returns. Shocks to oil market‐specific demand significantly raise China's economic policy uncertainty and reduce the real stock market returns. As measured by a spillover index, the interdependence between these variables has been rising since 2003 as China's influence in the oil market has increased. An equivalent spillover index calculated for the US is smaller and has been largely flat over time.     

Are Small Firms Really Less Productive?

Small and medium-sized establishments (SMEs) account for a large proportion of industrial employment and production in almost all countries. Moreover, the recent literature emphasizes the role SMEs play in nurturing entrepreneurship and generating new products and processes. Although SMEs could be a source of new ideas and innovations, there are substantial productivity differences between small and large establishments. In this paper, we analyze three sources of productivity differentials: technical efficiency, returns to scale, and technical change. Our analysis on the creation, survival, and growth of new establishments in Turkish manufacturing industries in the period 1987–1997 shows that all these three factors play a very important role in determining the survival probability and growth prospects of new establishments.