Determinants of violent and property crimes in England and Wales: a panel data analysis

We examine various determinants of property and violent crimes by using police force area level (PFA) data on England and Wales over the period of 1992–2008. Our list of potential determinants includes two law enforcement variables namely crime-specific detection rate and prison population, and various socio-economic variables such as unemployment rate, real earnings, proportion of young people and the Gini Coefficient. By adopting a fixed effect dynamic GMM estimation methodology we attempt to address the potential bias that arises from the presence of time-invariant unobserved characteristics of a PFA and the endogeneity of several regressors. There is a significant positive effect of own-lagged crime rate. The own-lagged effect is stronger for property crime, on an average, than violent crime. We find that, on an average, higher detection rate and prison population leads to lower property and violent crimes. This is robust to various specifications. However, socio-economic variables with the exception of real earnings play a limited role in explaining different crime types.     

Decomposing the bias in time-series estimates of CAPM betas

We identify two sources of bias arising from time-series regression used to compute beta. This bias arises due to the classical error in variables problem and a ‘mechanical interaction’ which exists when the index comprises the asset of interest. Assuming that the market is proxied by a fixed-weight index, we demonstrate that the relative weighting of an asset within the index, and/or the magnitude of its idiosyncratic risk, directly biases the beta estimate for the individual stock and also for all stocks within the index. Via simulations, we show that the problem is most pronounced for markets with a small number of highly concentrated assets. Finally, we propose a procedure to reduce this bias and apply the methods to equity data.     

Strategie Orientation and Export Performance

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the linkage between strategic variables and the export performance of firms in the United States, Germany, and Japan. R&D Intensity, Capital Intensity, Average Collection Period, Debt Leverage, and Labor Productivity are used as measures of strategic variables. R&D intensity and Labor Productivity are found to have a strong and positive association with export performance in all three countries. Capital intensity and average collection period also have significant relationship with export performance in the United States and Japan, respectively.     

Corporate Performance in Jordan: A Macro Analysis

Abstract

The aim of this study is to de ter mine and an a lyze cor porate per for mance in Jor dan dur ing the pe riod 1989-1996. Four mod els have been spec i fied to test and an a lyze cor po rate per for mance at the macro level. The find ings have re vealed that earn ing per share (EPS) and stock prices are found to be the better mea sures of cor po rate per formance at the macro level. These mea sures were found to be af fected basi cally by or ga ni za tional vari ables, fol lowed by lead er ship vari ables. The pa per thus chal lenges the view that the poor cor po rate per for mance is at trib uted to en vi ron men tal and man a ge rial vari ables, as these variables were found to have no ma jor ef fect on cor po rate per for mance in Jor dan.     

基于面板模型的中国国债风险溢价实证研究

该研究采用面板模型实证分析了2003年12月至2008年4月上海证券交易所债券市场国债风险溢价与利率期限结构及宏观经济变量的关系。实证结果显示，上期利率期限结构曲线越陡峭，当期国债风险溢价越高；上期通货膨胀水平越高，当期国债风险溢价越高，而再延长一期滞后期，会发现滞后第二期的通货膨胀水平与当期国债风险溢价存在显著负关系；货币供应同比增速增加时，国债风险溢价水平降低。     

建筑产品价格探讨

建筑产品价格的变动趋势影响业主、承包商、金融机构及其他相关利益团体的投资决策，随着我国加入WTO及建筑业与世界接轨，计划经济时期以行政命令方式决定建筑产品价格、计划经济向市场经济转变时期依据统一定额和费率决定建筑产品价格的模式已不适应市场经济的发展了，西方市场经济国家成熟的无底招标模式在我国的应用也正在探索之中。为了正确理解建筑产品价格并进一步为建筑产品价格的预测奠定一定的基础，结合我国建筑业的实际，探讨建筑产品价格的特点、不同经济时期建筑产品价格形成的模式以及建筑产品价格运动的规律，并初步探讨了可能影响建筑产品价格的宏观经济变量。     

工业行业综合竞争力的主成份分析

本文应用多元统计分析方法---主成份分析方法,选择行业竞争力的十五大指标对工业行业综合竞争力进行评价。以河北省25个主要行业为分析对象,通过对行业竞争力的主成份分析,我们对河北省各行业的竞争能力情况以及各行业本身长短处进行了评价,同时也指出河北省工业行业发展中所存在的主要问题。     

Using Fast and Slow Processes to Manage Resources with Thresholds

Economists have relied on convexity assumptions for a long time but many natural resources that stem from ecosystems have non-convexities in their dynamics. This article illustrates the consequences of relaxing convexity assumptions for management and the role of fast and slow variables. The paper presents a general framework to handle systems with fast and slow variables, and illustrates the method using a model of coral reefs subject to fishing pressure. The insights obtained are used to discuss alternative management strategies.

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Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at .      

Non-causality: The role of the omitted variables

In this paper a proof is offered that if a variable Y₃ does not cause a variable Y₁ in the bivariate system (Y₁, Y₃) and Y₃ causes a variable Y₁ in higher-order system (Y₁, Y₂, Y₃), then the omitted variable Y₂ must cause the variable Y₁ in the bivariate system (Y₁, Y₂) and in the trivariate system (Y₁, Y₂, Y₃).