Alternative approaches to evaluation in empirical microeconomics

Four alternative but related approaches to empirical evaluation of policy interventions are studied: social experiments, natural experiments, matching methods, and instrumental variables. In each case the necessary assumptions and the data requirements are considered for estimation of a number of key parameters of interest. These key parameters include the average treatment effect, the treatment on the treated and the local average treatment effect. Some issues of implementation and interpretation are discussed drawing on the labour market programme evaluation literature.JEL Classification: J21, J64, C33Correspondence to: Richard BlundellThis review was prepared for the special microeconometrics PEJ. Comments from the editors, the referee and participants at the CeMMAP conference at which the papers for this volume were presented are gratefully acknowledged. The research is part of the program of the ESRC Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Fiscal Policy at IFS. Financial support from the ESRC is gratefully acknowledged. The second author also acknowledges the financial support from Sub-Programa Ciência e Tecnologia do Segundo Quadro Comunitário de Apoio, grant number PRAXIS XXI/BD/11413/97. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Modeling Discrete Choice with Uncertain Data: An Augmented MNL Estimator

This article introduces a multinomial logit model that uses ancillary information to control for uncertainty in both the observed choices made by respondents, and in the attributes of a respondent's choice set. Simulated data are used to compare the performance of this estimator versus simpler models, under several different kinds of uncertainty.     

Political Variables in Cross-country Growth Analysis

The recent boom in cross-country growth analysis has renewed the empirical interest in political sources of economic growth. A large number of studies have tested political variables in growth regressions and a very heterogenous set of variables has been proposed to measure economically relevant differences in the political systems of countries. This paper distinguishes five categories of relevant political variables: democracy, government stability, political violence, policy volatility, and subjective perception of politics. For each of these categories, the specification, testing method, and results of the most relevant studies are presented and are critically discussed. The paper concludes that measures of democracy are least successful and measures of policy volatility and subjective perception of politics most successful as explanatory variables in cross-country growth regressions.     

The largest square of successes covering the origin for Bernoulli trials on the lattice

Consider a collection of Bernoulli random variables on the two dimensional integer lattice and define the length D of the side of the largest square consisting entirely of successes, which covers the origin of the lattice. The paper gives a method to evaluate the probability distribution function of D . An analogous problem for the Poisson process on the plane is also considered.     

Applying Kalman Filter on Solving Simultaneous Equations with Overidentifying Rank Restrictions: The Analysis of the Demand and Supply Model of Medium-size Scooter Market in Taiwan

Once the structure form of demand and supply is translated into areduced form, one can solve the reduced form with a state space modelof the Kalman filter method. This paper discusses an innovationrepresentation that links the structure form with the state space model.For the state space model, the recursive Expectation Maximization(EM) algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of a structure form.This research successfully applied the Kalman filter method to theestimation of the coefficients of simultaneous equations withoveridentifying rank restrictions. The empirical monthly data set camefrom the medium-size scooter market in Taiwan during 1987 to 1992period.     

On decompositions of some random variables

The aim of this paper is to present several stochastic analogs of classical formulas for the gamma function. The obtained results provide representation of some random variables as finite or infinite products of independent random variables. Examples include generalized gamma, normal, beta and other distributions.     

DIFFUSION COEFFICIENT ESTIMATION AND ASSET PRICING WHEN RISK PREMIA AND SENSITIVITIES ARE TIME VARYING: A COMMENT

The purpose of this note is to analyze the diffusion coefficient estimator suggested by Chesney, Elliott, Madan, and Yang (1993). I start by correcting their formula (4.1), and by showing that their procedure is a member of a class of estimators sharing the same Milstein approximation. I then show how to select the minimum variance estimator (for constant μσ) within a two-parameter subclass of procedures which do not depend on the current realization of the process. I also show that if μ is small the best procedure only allows moderate reduction in variance with respect to the classical quadratic variation estimator (which is a member of the same class). the note concludes by highlighting the fact that the empirical use of the filtered volatilities poses an error in variables problem which can be addressed using instrumental variables methods.     

制度变革与省区经济增长——基于内生视角的实证研究

首先利用主成分方法构建了各省区的年度制度指数,设计了制度的工具变量,即各省区的矿产资源禀赋和海外市场接近度,然后利用回归方程分析了制度变革对经济增长的影响。结果表明,市场化导向的制度变革直接推动了我国省区的经济增长。     

Operators are not Parameters, the Dimensions of Operators and Variables Must be Invariant, and Indices may not be Dimensioned: Rejoinder to Professors Folsom and Gonzalez

What is certain is that mathematics cannot possibly be a valid means (to advances in economic understanding) unless and until it is used properly. That means that dimensions must be used consistently and correctly. Barnett (Barnett, Quart J Austrian Econ, pp. 27–46, 2003) is about problems with the use of mathematics in economics involving the failure to use dimensions/units consistently and correctly. Professor Emeritus Folsom and Professor Gonzalez (Folsom and Gonzalez, Quart J Austrian Econ, pp. 45–65, 2005), hereinafter F&G, say, essentially, that what is correct therein is not new and that what is new is not correct. Additionally, they imply, by raising them, that I did not address issues that I should have, e.g., how to introduce dimensions into introductory economics and problems with the Cobb-Douglas (CD) function unrelated to dimensions. Herein, because of space limitations, I respond only to some of their criticisms. Responses to others are posted on the Ludwig von Mises Institute Working Papers site.

旅游产业竞争潜力构成及其影响变量分析

伴随着旅游产业竞争的日益国际化和激烈化,如何增强旅游产业竞争力以便在旅游市场竞争中取胜已成为各旅游目的地发展战略中需要重点解决的问题。而从持续竞争优势的角度来看,不仅需要关注旅游产业现实竞争力,更要关注旅游产业竞争潜力,因为在一定外力的推动作用下潜力可以转化为竞争力。本文针对现有潜力研究中只关注供给而忽略需求要素的不足,提出从供需两方面分析旅游产业潜力体系的构成及其影响变量,揭示出旅游产业潜力构成是一个多层次、多要素的有机结合体,从而为将旅游产业潜力与竞争力进行联动机理分析、并为提升我国旅游产业竞争力对策建议提供了一个更全面的分析视角。