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541.
    
  相似文献   
542.
    
Inflation forecasts are a key ingredient for monetary policy-making – especially in an inflation targeting country such as South Africa. Generally, a typical Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) only includes a core set of variables. As such, other variables, for example alternative measures of inflation that might be of interest to policy-makers, do not feature in the model. Given this, we implement a closed-economy New Keynesian DSGE model-based procedure which includes variables that do not explicitly appear in the model. We estimate such a model using an in-sample covering 1971Q2 to 1999Q4 and generate recursive forecasts over 2000Q1 to 2011Q4. The hybrid DSGE performs extremely well in forecasting inflation variables (both core and nonmodelled) in comparison with forecasts reported by other models such as AR(1). In addition, based on ex-ante forecasts over the period 2012Q1–2013Q4, we find that the DSGE model performs better than the AR(1) counterpart in forecasting actual GDP deflator inflation.  相似文献   
543.
王锴  杨伟  杜伟锦 《科技和产业》2024,24(22):76-86
随着价值共创理论与实践的不断发展,对其前因与后果的研究已成为学界关注的重点,但现有文献的实证结果存在较大差异.由此对139项研究、141个独立样本中的461个效应值进行元分析,旨在归纳和识别影响价值共创的前因及其后果.研究发现,显著影响主体间价值共创的前因包括企业主体特征、顾客主体特征、交互特征和环境特征4个维度的14个变量;在企业主体特征方面,企业资本对价值共创的影响为高强度相关,企业的技术创新能力对主体间的价值共创影响并不显著;在顾客主体特征方面,各个维度因素都与价值共创之间高强度相关;在交互特征方面,主体间交互的便利性对价值共创的影响为高强度相关;在价值共创后果的研究中,价值共创对各结果变量都呈显著强相关.该研究得出了更具普适性的研究结论,为价值共创后续深入研究奠定了基础.  相似文献   
544.
本文认为,我国现在甚至以后影响首次公开发行制度变迁的主导因素已经由改革之初的政府利润预期变为不断出现的市场发展与现行制度的内在矛盾,但外生变量仍具有积极作用。第一,政府和其他制度变迁主体之间具有较强的利益相关性,这使得政府确定的外部规则与其他制度主体所创造的内部规则有激励兼容的可能,政府引进的外部规则有助于内部规则的发育;第二,政府在外部规则创新过程中会同时引进和发现许多制度知识,这些知识会通过各种途径传播开来,从而节约其他制度变迁主体的制度创新成本;第三,其他制度变迁主体之间存在的竞争迫使它们选择相互妥协的制度变迁方案,而成功的市场化经历或失败的市场化教训会吸引政府直接应用符合市场经济的一般规则,缩短其他制度变迁主体制定内部规则的时间。  相似文献   
545.
We wish to study inter-rater agreement comparing groups of observers who express their ratings on a discrete or ordinal scale. The starting point is that of defining what we mean by “agreement”. Given d observers, let the scores they assign to a given statistical unit be expressed as a d-vector in the real space. We define a deterministic ordering among these vectors, which expresses the degree of the raters’ agreement. The overall scoring of the raters on the sample space will be a d-dimensional random vector. We then define an associated partial ordering among the random vectors of the ratings, illustrate a number of its properties, and look at order-preserving functions (agreement measures). In this paper we also show how to test the hypothesis of greater agreement against the unrestricted hypothesis, and the hypothesis of equal agreement against the hypothesis that an agreement ordering holds. The test is applied to real data on two medical observers rating clinical guidelines.  相似文献   
546.
547.
本文通过对上海期货交易所的三个品种的涨跌停板制度进行检验,检验方法为:从收益率所拟和的ARMA模型中滤出残差,进行波动率的GARCH模型回归。波动率模型中加入了哑元变量来体现涨停板对后一日波动的影响。实证结果显示,铜、铝、天然橡胶的涨跌停板本应显著地使收益率的波动率减小的作用未检验出,相反却得到涨停板使三个品种显著波动率增大的检验结果。是否需要扩大涨跌停板,提高市场效率?检验结果带给我们如何使涨跌停板制度趋于合理化的思考。  相似文献   
548.
    
Changes in the risk structure of stock returns may sometimes be very revealing. We examine economic variables that help explain principal components in UK stock returns, 01/1985 to 12/2001. The loading pattern on explanatory variables for the first component in a ‘bubble’ period is distinctive and consistent with a bubble/crash market. The second component shows a loading pattern on a Consumer Confidence variable in a pre-bubble period only. We observe apparently systematic changes in the structure of risk, and conjecture that Consumer Confidence captures a change in market sentiment that could be a signal for the evolution of stock prices.  相似文献   
549.
    
Together with their associated statistical routines, this paper describes the control and sensitivity methods that can be employed by accounting researchers to address the important issue of unobserved (omitted) variable bias in regression and matching models according to the types of variables employed. As with other social science disciplines, an important and pervasive issue in observational (non-experimental) accounting research is omitted variable bias (endogeneity). Causal inferences for endogenous explanatory variables are biased. This occurs in regression models where an unobserved (confounding) variable is correlated with both the dependent (outcome) variable in a regression model and the causal explanatory (often a selection) variable of interest. The Heckman treatment effect model has been widely employed to control for hidden bias for continuous outcomes and endogenous binary selection variables. However, in accounting studies, limited (categorical) dependent variables are a common feature and endogenous explanatory variables may be other than binary in nature. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of contemporary control methods, together with the statistical routines to implement them, which extend the Heckman approach to binary, multinomial, ordinal, count and percentile outcomes and to where endogenous variables take various forms. These contemporary methods aim to improve causal estimates by controlling for hidden bias, though at the price of increased complexity. A simpler approach is to conduct sensitivity analysis. This paper also presents a synopsis of a number of sensitivity techniques and their associated statistical routines which accounting researchers can employ routinely to appraise the vulnerability of causal effects to potential (simulated) unobserved bias when estimated with conventional regression and propensity score matching estimators.  相似文献   
550.
When a house is placed on the market, the seller must choose the initial offer price. Setting the price too high or too low affects the marketability of the property. While there is near universal agreement that the seller faces a trade-off between selling at a higher price and selling in less time, there is less agreement about how to measure this trade-off. This paper offers a framework for analysis and shows that an increase in the list price increases expected time-on-the-market (TOM). Because house buyers must solve a type of signal extraction problem, the effect of a higher list price is magnified for houses in a market segment having a low predicted variance of the list price. This paper also shows that the list price of houses which are withdrawn before sale has a higher mean and variance, and that the possibility of withdrawal censors information about the time-on-the-market.  相似文献   
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