Targeting,bias, and expected impact of complex innovations on developing‐country agriculture: evidence from Malawi

Agronomic analyses of new technologies are often conducted under carefully controlled research station programs or trials managed by self‐selected farmers. Oftentimes, the technologies are then scaled up with minimal evaluation under real‐world conditions. Yet, the interim step between agronomic trials and large‐scale promotion is crucial to generate evidence on the social and economic impact of technologies that is both internally valid and generalizable. The article focuses on a participatory action research program in Malawi designed to test and identify scalable technology options to intensify the smallholder sector and contribute to poverty reduction and food and nutrition security. We examine the socioeconomic characteristics of farmers testing technologies and find evidence of systematic targeting of better‐endowed farmers. After controlling for observable differences using matching and a doubly robust estimator, we find evidence of early positive effects on maize yield and harvest value, although placebo tests suggest possible selection on unobservables. We note that attention should be given to program design and household characterization to better define and improve targeting criteria, technology selection, and external validity.     

Monetary policy shocks and the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices: evidence from structural and factor‐augmented VAR analyses

Fluctuation in commodity prices is a significant and timely issue to be studied. This study is to examine the impact of monetary policy and other macroeconomic shocks on the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices. The major contributions of this study are twofold. First, unlike other studies that use indexes, this study analyzes the commodities individually, affording the inclusion of commodity‐specific fundamentals such as the level of inventory—an important determinant of commodity price—in a structural VAR framework. Second, it exploits a rich data set of agricultural commodity prices which includes commodities that are usually overlooked in the literature, and extracts a common factor using the dynamic factor model to understand the extent of comovement of the prices and to gauge the extent to which macroeconomic shocks drive the “comovement” in a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR) framework. The findings show that monetary policy, global economic conditions, and the U.S. dollar exchange rates play an important role in the dynamics of agricultural commodity prices.     

Do farm operators benefit from direct to consumer marketing strategies?

Using farm‐level data this study investigates factors associated with the choice of three direct marketing strategies (DMSs). Particular attention is given to the role of management and marketing skills in selection of DMSs. Additionally, the study applies a selectivity‐based approach for the multinomial logit model to assess the relationship between DMSs and the financial performance of the business. Results suggest that both management and marketing skills significantly affect direct‐to‐consumer sales. Farmers choosing the strategy of sales only through direct‐to‐consumer outlets report earnings that are significantly lower than earnings from the other marketing strategies. Marketing skills prove to be beneficial to direct‐to‐consumer (DTC) earnings. Finally, the selectivity correction terms in the direct sales model are significantly negative in the choice of DTC, indicating the presence of sample selection effects. Accounting for selectivity is essential to ensure unbiased and consistent estimates.     

On Taxation,Political Accountability and Foreign Aid: Empirics to a Celebrated Literature

The Eubank findings on taxation, political accountability and foreign aid have had an important influence on academic and policymaking debates. Eubank has warned that his findings should not be generalised across Africa until they are backed by robust empirical evidence. This paper puts some empirical structure to the celebrated literature. The empirical evidence which is based on data from 53 African countries for the period 1996‐2010 broadly confirms the Somaliland‐based Eubank hypothesis that in the absence of foreign aid, the dependence of government on local tax revenues provides the leverage for better political governance.     

Optimal Forestry Contracts under Asymmetry of Information

In this paper, I analyze optimal royalty contracts in forestry when the harvesting firm has private information on the cost of harvesting. This infinite horizon forest rotation model with asymmetry of information on the cost parameter results in a dynamic incentive problem. Depending on whether the costs are correlated over time or not, the firm either receives rent or receives no rent, associated with the continuation part of the rotation choice. I characterize the optimal contract explicitly in both cases. I also examine the loss in expected welfare surplus resulting from the use of a linear contract instead of the more general non‐linear contract.     

Adaptation to Global Warming as an Optimal Transition Process to A Greenhouse World

This article develops the economics of adaptation to global warming as an optimal transition process to future climates. Three policy approaches that encompass the existing theories and policy options are initially outlined: measures based on individuals' social responsibility, government regulations, and carbon pricing. Evidence suggests that each of these options has little chance of being agreed upon and implemented at a global level. The economics of adaptation begins with climate signals which force individuals to adapt. Private adaptations are simultaneously tapped into for carbon dioxide removal and abatement. With increasingly severe damage over time, public sectors will be compelled to work in partnership with individuals and communities. Responding to amplifying climate signals, adaptation strategies evolve in such a way as to accelerate carbon dioxide reductions through low‐carbon energy sources and technological solutions. Adaptations in a centuries‐long timescale would effectively fend off dangerous global warming, but in a manner that is unbearably slow for the world's communities. The optimality of the transition process is based on micro efficiency, coordination, and the public goods nature and unique characteristics of specific adaptation strategies.     

Imitation,Contagion, or Exertion? Using a Tax Reform to Reveal How Colleagues' Sick Leaves Influence Worker Behaviour

We analyse the social interaction effects in sick‐leave behaviour in the workplace, using high‐quality Norwegian matched employer–employee data with detailed individual information on sick leaves during the 2004–2006 period. We find that social interaction effects in sick‐leave behaviour in the workplace do exist, and that the effects are noticeable in size. The strong relationship between the sick‐leave rates among colleagues is not solely the result of contagious diseases, nor is it caused by improved informational quality or by the increased workload for the non‐absent workers. Evidence supports the existence of reciprocal worker behaviour that is unrelated to joint leisure‐seeking activities.     

A Voting Architecture for the Governance of Free‐Driver Externalities,with Application to Geoengineering

Abating climate change is an enormous international public‐goods problem with a classical “free‐rider” structure. However, it is also a global “free‐driver” problem because geoengineering the stratosphere with reflective particles to block incoming solar radiation is so cheap that it could essentially be undertaken unilaterally by one state perceiving itself to be in peril. This exploratory paper develops the main features of a free‐driver externality in a simple model motivated by the asymmetric consequences of type‐I and type‐II errors. I propose a social‐choice decision architecture, embodying the solution concept of a supermajority voting rule, and derive its basic properties.     

The behavioral basis of policies fostering long-run transitions: Stakeholders,limited rationality and social context

Writings on sustainability transitions generally pay slight attention to the specific behavioral characteristics of individuals, groups and organizations. This paper examines how modern insights about bounded rationality, social interaction and learning can contribute to making transition polices more effective in addressing barriers and opportunities to realize a sustainability transition in the near future. We argue that the behavioral underpinnings of features like lock-in, surprises in innovation systems and network interactions have been insufficiently elaborated and connected to policy design. We identify and illustrate the most important behavioral features of relevant stakeholders in transition processes. By focusing on behavioral features at both individual and organizational levels, we arrive at recommendations for policy makers regarding important barriers to change and how to overcome these. Specific policy insights are offered at multiple levels, for different stakeholders, and associated with both behavioral biases and social interactions. The analysis combines insights from the literatures on sustainability transitions, “environmental–behavioral economics”, and behavioral foundations of learning and innovation. Our framework may serve as a basis for coherent behavior studies of transitions that otherwise run the risk of being ad hoc. This will improve conditional forecasting of system responses to transition policies.     

On food security and the economic valuation of food

The paper presents an economic evaluation of food and the cost of food insecurity. Building on behavioral regularities of consumer behavior, the analysis estimates the benefit of food at the individual level and at the world level. It finds an inverted-U relationship between food benefit and income. At the individual level, the “food benefit/income” ratio starts at 0 under extreme poverty, increases with income to reach a maximum of 4.4 when income per capita is around $13,000, and then declines slowly as income rises. The paper shows very large aggregate net benefit of food. The analysis also evaluates the cost of food insecurity. It shows that aversion to food insecurity is pervasive, the coefficient of relative risk aversion to food insecurity being around 2.7. The analysis evaluates empirically the cost of food insecurity. We report the cost of food insecurity under alternative scenarios, documenting that it can be large in situations of exposure to significant downside risk.