回归诊断在统计数据异常值探测中的应用

近年来有关异常值的理论探讨一直是个热点问题,从回归模型诊断的角度对统计数据中的异常值进行探测与分析,并在基于R语言的基础上,结合具体实例,给出回归诊断在统计数据异常值探测中的应用。     

A model of collateral, investment, and adverse selection

This paper characterizes the relationship between entrepreneurial wealth and aggregate investment under adverse selection. Its main finding is that such a relationship need not be monotonic. In particular, three results emerge from the analysis: (i) pooling equilibria, in which investment is independent of entrepreneurial wealth, are more likely to arise when entrepreneurial wealth is relatively low; (ii) separating equilibria, in which investment is increasing in entrepreneurial wealth, are most likely to arise when entrepreneurial wealth is relatively high and; (iii) for a given interest rate, an increase in entrepreneurial wealth may generate a discontinuous fall in investment.     

The role of the state in resolving business disputes in China

In this paper, we follow the theoretical framework proposed by Djankov et al. (2003) to investigate the role of the state in resolving business disputes and its impact on enterprise performance. Using a survey of private enterprises in China, we first construct an index to quantify the power of the state vis-à-vis the market in resolving business disputes, and then find that enterprises located in regions where the government has a greater relative power enjoy better performance. Our results suggest that the regulatory state has played a positive role in the economic transition in China.     

Gambling in contests

This paper presents a strategic model of risk-taking behavior in contests. Formally, we analyze an n-player winner-take-all contest in which each player decides when to stop a privately observed Brownian motion with drift. A player whose process reaches zero has to stop. The player with the highest stopping point wins. Unlike the explicit cost for a higher stopping time in a war of attrition, here, higher stopping times are riskier, because players can go bankrupt. We derive a closed-form solution of a Nash equilibrium outcome. In equilibrium, highest expected losses occur at an intermediate negative value of the drift.     

Interdependence in multinational production networks

Abstract Most multinational firms today operate multilateral production networks. Most existing empirical analyses, however, have focused on firms’ choice between producing at home and investing overseas. This paper uses detailed French multinational subsidiary data to examine the effect of existing production networks on multinationals’ entry decisions. The paper finds strong horizontal and vertical interdependence across multinationals’ foreign production locations, but little interdependence between home and foreign production when third‐country effects are taken into account. This result constitutes a sharp contrast to the conventional emphasis and highlights the importance of investigating foreign direct investment in the context of multinational production networks.     

Endogenous retirement and public pension system reform in Spain

Population aging has spurred developed countries around the world to reform their PAYG pension systems. In particular, delaying legal retirement ages and reducing the generosity of pension benefits have been widely implemented changes. This paper assesses the potential success of these policies in the case of the Spanish economy, and compares them with the results obtained by the (rather modest) reforms already implemented in 1997 and 2001. This evaluation is accomplished in a heterogeneous-agent dynamic general equilibrium model where individuals can adjust their retirement ages in response to changes to the pension rules. We check the ability of the model to reproduce the basic stylized facts of retirement behavior (particularly the pattern of early retirement induced by minimum pensions). The model is then used to explore the impact of pension reforms. We find that already implemented changes actually increase the implicit liabilities of the system. In contrast, delaying the legal retirement age and extending the averaging period in the pension formula to cover most of the individual's life-cycle can reduce the implicit liabilities substantially. These findings reveal the failure of the Spanish political system to distribute the costs of population aging more evenly across the generations.     

Parallel axiomatizations of majority and unanimity

The relative majority rule and the unanimity rule are characterized in the two alternatives case. The main axioms rely on the idea of determining the preference of a group by partitioning it into two subgroups and aggregating next their preferences.