Local elections and consumption insurance

During our sample period from 1987 to 2002, Chinese villages completed the transition from government‐appointed village leaders to elected ones. This article examines if and how much democratic elections of the village leaders affected consumption insurance by Chinese village residents. Exploring a panel dataset of 1,400 households from this period, we find that consumption insurance is around 20 percent more complete with elected village leaders. Furthermore, local elections improve consumption insurance only for the poor and middle‐income farmers, but not for the rich. The results are robust when we allow for pretrending, potential endogeneity of elections, and higher measurement errors for rich residents. We also find that the effects on consumption insurance are stronger when closer to the upcoming election year and when the village committees consist largely of non‐Communist Party members. These findings suggest that the election effects on consumption insurance partly come from increasing accountability to local constituents.     

The animal spirits hypothesis and the Benhabib–Farmer condition for indeterminacy

This paper provides a self-contained review of the introduction of the animal spirits hypothesis into the infinite horizon optimal‐growth model. The analysis begins with an economic discussion of Pontryagin's maximum principles. Thereafter, I develop a version of the increasing-returns Benhabib–Farmer model by showing the possible sub-optimality of the central planner solution and deriving the bifurcation condition for indeterminacy. Moreover, I give some insights on how to model intrinsic and extrinsic uncertainty. Finally, analyzing the equilibrium condition of the labor market, I provide an intuitive rationale for the mechanism that in this model might lead prophecies to be self-fulfilling.     

Social contracts,markets and efficiency: Groundwater irrigation in North India

This paper uses primary data to analyze the institutions and informal markets that govern groundwater allocation in a sugarcane-cultivating village in North India. We find that, in contrast to earlier literature, the observed water trades result in efficient water allocation across farms. We interpret this and other stylized facts in terms of a social contract using a simple bargaining model with limited inter-player transfers. Poor functioning of the power sector leads to reduced pumping and a water supply constraint. Simulations show that power supply reform can significantly increase farm yields, and be financed out of increased farm profits.     

Microfinance and gender empowerment

In this paper, we develop a theoretical model of household production, bargaining and credit to analyse how access to microcredit affects intra-household decision-making and welfare, and identify conditions under which female household members are most likely to benefit. We show that, consistent with ethnographic accounts of the impact of microcredit programmes on poor households, access to loans can lead to a variety of outcomes for intra-household decision-making and welfare depending on initial conditions and that, in some instances, women borrowers may experience a decline in welfare. We identify two instances in which a woman is most likely to benefit: when there is scope for investing the loan profitably in a joint activity, and when a large share of the household budget is devoted to household public goods.     

Chinese competition and product variety of Indian firms

Using detailed firm-product-year data across manufacturing industries in India, and exploiting the exogenous nature of China’s entry into the WTO in 2001, we investigate the link between the impact of import penetration from China on the product variety of Indian manufacturing firms. We find: (i) robust and significant effects of product drop, with the effect coming only from competitive pressure in the domestic market; (ii) robust evidence of product drop or ‘creative destruction’ only for firms belonging to the lower-half of the size distribution; (iii) firms drop their peripheral/marginal products and concentrate on the core ones; and (iv) the result is strongest for firms producing intermediate goods. For an average Indian manufacturing firm, a 10 percentage point increase in India’s Chinese share of imports in the domestic market reduces the product scope of firms by 1.7–4.4%. In contrast, we find positive effects on product scope when firms are importing intermediate goods. We also find evidence of significant productivity effects and within-firm factor reallocation. Our results are consistent to a battery of robustness checks and IV estimation.     

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND NON‐MONOTONIC SPATIAL TRANSITIONS

The purpose of the present study is to analyse non‐monotonic spatial changes accompanying economic development. A dynamic two‐region model with endogenous human capital and converging processes to its long‐run equilibria is investigated. The main focus of the present study is to investigate how the level of migration cost influences the shape of a converging process. From the analysis of the model, population distribution draws an inverted‐U‐curve to describe economic development when the cost of migration is low enough. Also, the transition of interregional income inequalities is an inverted‐U when migration cost is at an intermediate level.     

Institutions and geography: Empirical test of spatial growth models for European regions

This article provides an empirical assessment of the growth experiences of European regions, during the period 1991–2004, by taking into account the spatial effects due to both institutions and geography. These effects have been modelled by means of specific controls and by using a non-conventional spatial weight matrix. Results favour a model dealing with substantive spatial externalities. Within this framework, the country-specific institutions are strongly and positively related to the regional productivity's growth rate. In addition, the geo-institutional proximity increases the spatial dependence of the regional output per worker and raises the speed of convergence. By contrast, the pure geographical metrics is underperforming, while underestimating the convergence dynamics.     

Regional convergence of growth,inequality and poverty in India—An empirical study

The paper attempts to examine whether there is regional convergence of per capita consumption, inequality and poverty across various states in India. Using panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-sectional dependence, we find that inequality and poverty indicators converge at both rural and urban levels. Further, per capita consumption converges at urban level but not at rural level. Based on factor analysis, we find two groups of states for rural sectors, viz., low-growth and high-growth states, for each of which per capita consumption converges. We also attempt at identifying the responsible entities — central or state governments or both in cases where convergence is not achieved.     

On the evolutionary edge of altruism: a game-theoretic proof of Hamilton’s rule for a simple case of siblings

We offer a game-theoretic proof of Hamiltons rule for the spread of altruism. For a simple case of siblings, we show that the rule can be derived as the outcome of a one-shot prisoners dilemma game between siblings.JEL Classification: A13, C70, D64Correspondence to: Oded Stark, ZEF, University of Bonn, Walter-Flex-Strasse 3, 53113 Bonn, GermanyWe are indebted to an anonymous referee and to Uwe Cantner for helpful comments and suggestions. Partial financial support from the National Institute on Aging (grant RO1-AG13037) and from the Humboldt Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.