The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward

Research on foreign exchange market microstructure stresses the importance of order flow, heterogeneity among agents, and private information as crucial determinants of short-run exchange rate dynamics. Microstructure researchers have produced empirically-driven models that fit the data surprisingly well. But FX markets are evolving rapidly in response to new electronic trading technologies. Transparency has risen, trading costs have tumbled, and transaction speed has accelerated as new players have entered the market and existing players have modified their behavior. These changes will have profound effects on exchange rate dynamics. Looking forward, we highlight fundamental yet unanswered questions on the nature of private information, the impact on market liquidity, and the changing process of price discovery. We also outline potential microstructure explanations for long-standing exchange rate puzzles.     

企业债券融资的国际比较分析与启示——基于优序融资理论视角

本文基于优序融资理论,通过对不同融资模式下企业债券融资的国际比较,结合我国企业融资模式的变迁,指出大力发展企业债券融资是扩大我国企业融资渠道的必然选择。     

行业变革下理财子公司的机遇和挑战

随着资管新规、理财新规和理财子公司管理办法的相继颁布,我国资产管理行业迎来了重大的变革。2019年,理财子公司陆续成立,作为一种全新的资产管理机构,因为体量大、背景深,对整个资管行业将产生重大影响。理财子公司成立于行业发生重大变革的背景下,面临着经营模式转型、关系重新定位、人才系统欠缺、能力亟待提升等方面的挑战,但同时也有市场机遇、政策机遇和转型机遇等方面的有利条件。面对行业变革带来的机遇和挑战,理财子公司要通过做好自身定位、打造合作共赢生态圈、建设三大体系、构筑四大基础,为客户和企业提供一站式金融服务。     

Disclosure Policy and Market Liquidity: Impact of Depth Quotes and Order Sizes*

This paper investigates the relation between disclosure policy and market liquidity. Our tests examine two key aspects of market liquidity, the effective bid‐ask spread and quoted depth, and how they relate to financial analysts' ratings of firms' disclosure policies. We introduce a method of combining order sizes and depth quotes to yield more precise estimates of effective spreads on trades likely constrained by quoted depth. We find that while firms with higher rated disclosures are charged lower effective spreads, they are also quoted lower depth, consistent with the notion that better disclosures reduce information asymmetry but also cause some liquidity suppliers to exit the market. Therefore, a simple examination of spreads and depths yields ambiguous inferences on the relation between disclosure policy and market liquidity. We resolve this ambiguity by estimating depth‐adjusted effective spreads, and find that firms with higher rated disclosures have lower depth‐adjusted effective spreads across all trade sizes. Consequently, our results reveal a robust inverse relation between disclosure ratings and effective trading costs. This implies that a policy of enhanced financial disclosure is related to improved market liquidity.     

Throughput time distribution analysis for a one-block warehouse

We develop discrete time models for the throughput time distribution of orders arriving to a one-block warehouse. The models accommodate single- or multi-line orders, and we show how to use them to determine the optimal batch size, given a desired probability of on-time order fulfillment. Experiments suggest that the optimal batch size is slightly higher than one would choose if minimizing average throughput time.     

Optimal economic ordering policy with deteriorating items under different supplier trade credits for finite horizon case

This paper develops and solves a general finite horizon trade credit economic ordering policy for an inventory model with deteriorating items under inflation and time value of money when shortages are not allowed. The time horizon is divided into different cycles each of which has its own demand rate and its own trade credit period offered from the supplier to his retailer so that the retailer should pay his supplier before or after the end of the permissible trade credit of that cycle. Up to the end of the trade credit of a cycle, the retailer is free of charge, but he is charged on an interest for those items not being sold before this end. The retailer can also earn the interest of the money from the generated sales revenue in any cycle by depositing such revenue into an interest bearing account. The objective of the retailer is then to minimize his net total relevant costs. A closed form of this net total cost is derived and the resulting model is solved. Then rigorous mathematical methods are used to show that, under some seemingly possible conditions, there exist a unique vector of the relevant decision variables that solve the underlying inventory system. A numerical example which shows the applicability of the theoretical results is given.     

Market structure and dealers’ quoting behavior in the foreign exchange market

This article examines how differently the same dealer quotes in the inter-dealer and customer foreign exchange markets that have different market structures. The model first predicts that customer spreads are generally wider than inter-dealer ones due to less transparency in the customer market. The model also predicts that since customers are believed to be less informed than dealers, the differential between customer and inter-dealer spreads tends to fall with the rise in order sizes. In addition, the dealer's mid-quotes are shown to be the same in the two markets. Empirical evidence based on data collected from a FX dealer supports these theoretical findings.     

Assessing ecosystem sustainability and management using fuzzy logic

Concern about the negative impacts of growth and development on protected area ecosystems has drawn attention to methods for assessing ecosystem sustainability and management. Existing non-stochastic and stochastic methods for assessing weak and strong sustainability of ecosystems have several limitations. The non-stochastic method does not account for errors in measuring attributes, stochastic variability in attributes, and uncertainty about the relationship between ecosystem attributes and states (degrees) of ecosystem sustainability. Although the stochastic method better accounts for errors in measuring attributes, and stochastic variability in attributes than the non-stochastic method, it requires information about the probability distributions of attributes for different states of sustainability. Such information is not readily available. The fuzzy logic method overcomes the limitations of the non-stochastic and stochastic methods, but requires fuzzifying an index of sustainability in the case of weak sustainability, fuzzifying individual attributes in the case of strong sustainability, specifying and estimating membership functions for low, medium and high ecosystem sustainability, selecting a rule to determine whether an ecosystem is strongly sustainable based on the conclusions for fuzzy propositions, and specifying fuzzy sets for truth qualifiers when evaluating conditional and qualified propositions. Whether the benefits outweigh the costs of using the fuzzy logic method depends on the knowledge, data, and information available about the ecosystem, the expertise of the persons doing the assessment, and other factors. The non-stochastic, stochastic and fuzzy logic methods can be used to rank management alternatives and select a preferred alternative in cases where the current state of the ecosystem is unsustainable. Ranking management alternatives using a fuzzy logic method requires ordering the fuzzy scores for alternatives. All three methods for ranking management alternatives call for a group preference ordering for management alternatives in cases where individuals in the group have different preferences for alternatives.     

The economic agent as rule maker and rule user: <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Homo Sapiens Oeconomicus</Emphasis>

The paper discusses the micro foundations of evolutionary economics, introducing a unified concept of the economic agent as a rule maker and rule user. Based on recent findings of the neuronal, cognitive and behavioral sciences, Homo Sapiens Oeconomicus emerges as an alternative to Homo Oeconomicus. A taxonomy of rules distinguishing between cognitive, behavioral and blueprint rules and a set of theoretical propositions related to the structure and evolution of those rules are suggested.JEL Classification: A 12, B 41, B 52, B 53, D 00, D 64, D 80, D 83, E 11, L20The present paper had its origin in a research project on The Interdisciplinary Foundations of Economic Decision Making supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation during 1978-1980. The core of that work was a brain model whose architecture also serves as a corner stone for this paper. Since then there have been substantial developments in the respective areas; some of the major findings of the more recent research in the neuronal, cognitive and related sciences are discussed and integrated into the present paper. - I gratefully acknowledge insightful comments and criticisms from Georg D. Blind. Some ideas were discussed during my tenure as a Visiting Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Queensland, in fall 2003, and I wish to record my appreciation of the hospitality during that visit. Particular thanks for the inspiring discussions go to Peter Earl, John Foster, and, as always, Jason Potts. Special thanks are due to Juli Lessmann and Charles R. McCann for their thoughtful corrections of my English prose and their editorial help. The usual disclaimer applies.     

模块化结构下的市场结构、行为及绩效

模块化作为新产业结构的本质特征,其结构由三部分构成:设计规则、隐形模块生产和系统集成与检测。模块化改变了传统的产业组织形态,在模块化结构下,市场结构是分散型的大系统,市场行为表现为三种新竞争形态,最终市场绩效是增进的。