Best classification algorithms in peer-to-peer lending

A proper credit scoring technique is vital to the long-term success of all kinds of financial institutions, including peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms. The main contribution of our paper is the robust ranking of 10 different classification techniques based on a real-world P2P lending data set. Our data set comes from the Lending Club covering the 2009–2013 period, which contains 212,252 records and 23 different variables. Unlike other researchers, we use a data sample which contains the final loan resolution for all loans. We built our research using a 5-fold cross-validation method and 6 different classification performance measurements. Our results show that logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and linear discriminant analysis are the three best algorithms based on the Lending Club data. Conversely, we identify k-nearest neighbors and classification and regression tree as the two worst classification methods.     

遗赠、婚外同居与公序良俗

《民法典》继承制度延续了《继承法》,最终并未采纳特留份制度。自比较法角度看,《民法典》继承制度的重要特色在于注重扶养或需要,避免不加限制的“不劳而获”。在向婚外同居者遗赠情形中,生存配偶非基于扶养或需要而主张违反遗嘱意思的继承,不符合我国继承制度缓解“不劳而获”思想的特点,可不予支持。向婚外同居者遗赠的法律行为,若不涉及金钱和婚外同居的交换——如与婚外同居者订立遗赠扶养协议,则不应以违反公序良俗为由认定其无效。婚外同居者违反夫妻忠实义务可在夫妻关系的法律规定中寻求解决之道。     

构建社会主义和谐社会的制度分析

制度安排是社会状态函数的一个关键性变量，因此，相应的制度安排是构建社会主义和谐社会的关键之所在。而和谐的制度安排应立足于其根本的“基础设施”——政府、市场、社会自身及其关系的和谐，然后构建其对策性的制度安排：合理的利益协调机制、利益沟通与谈判的机制、有序的社会流动机制、表达与参与机制、以社会公平、正义为核心的价值评价机制。     

因势利导推进西部高校科研管理机制的创新

科研是提高大学发展水平最直接和最有效的推进器。对条件相对落后的西部高校而言，科研管理部门要用良好的开放心态，创立优秀的科研工作平台，吸引四方人才，激发科研活力。对科研人员要“不求所有，但求所用”，通过规范管理制度、创新管理思维，关注相关领域科学研究全局，因势利导，顺水推舟，促进本校科研水平不断攀上新台阶。     

Earnings Quality under Rules‐ versus Principles‐based Accounting Standards: A Test of the Skinner Hypothesis / LA QUALITÉ DES RÉSULTATS SELON QUE LES NORMES COMPTABLES SONT AXÉES SUR LES RÈGLES OU SUR LES PRINCIPES: VÉRIFICATION DE L'HYPOTHÈSE DE SKINNER*

We provide preliminary evidence, consistent with Skinner (1995), that Canada's relatively principles‐based GAAP yield higher accrual quality than the United States' relatively rules‐based GAAP. These results stem from a comparison of the Dechow‐Dichev (2002) measure of accrual quality for cross‐listed Canadian firms reporting under both Canadian and U.S. GAAP. However, we document lower accrual quality for Canadian firms reporting under U.S. GAAP than for U.S. firms, which are subject to stronger U.S. oversight, reporting under U.S. GAAP. The latter results suggest that stronger U.S. oversight compensates for inferior accrual quality associated with rules‐based GAAP. Consistent with the positive effect of Canada's principles‐based GAAP and the offsetting negative effect of Canada's weaker oversight, we find no overall difference in accrual quality between Canadian firms reporting under Canadian GAAP and U.S. firms reporting under U.S. GAAP. Our results imply that (1) policymakers who wish to compare the effectiveness of oversight across jurisdictions must control for the GAAP effect; and (2) accounting standard‐setters who wish to compare the effectiveness of principles‐ versus rules‐based GAAP must control for oversight strength.     

货币政策有效性研究的最新文献述评

本文从常见研究视角和常用研究方法两个角度,对货币政策有效性研究的最新文献展开综述。通过综述本文发现,参考最优货币政策规则理论的模型设定思路和量化方法,不仅可以避免以多元线性回归模型和S-VAR模型作为重要工具的相关研究中存在的诸如价格之谜和产出之谜等问题,而且其研究结论与政策建议更有利于宏观经济的长期稳定发展。     

Optimal execution with uncertain order fills in Almgren–Chriss framework

The classical price impact model of Almgren and Chriss is extended to incorporate the uncertainty of order fills. The extended model can be recast as alternatives to uncertain impact models and stochastic liquidity models. Optimal strategies are determined by maximizing the expected final profit and loss (P&L) and various P&L-risk tradeoffs including utility maximization. Closed form expressions for optimal strategies are obtained in linear cases. The results suggest a type of adaptive volume weighted average price, adaptive percentage of volume and adaptive Almgren–Chriss strategies. VWAP and classical Almgren–Chriss strategies are recovered as limiting cases with a different characteristic time scale of liquidation for the latter.     

运用学习规则求解编组站静态配流问题的研究

编组站静态配流问题需要制定配流方案,明确出发列车的编组内容和车流来源。算法的思路是通过构建网络模型,将静态配流问题转化为固定费用的产销平衡运输问题,并将目标函数转化为求最小虚拟到达列车车辆数。首先设定虚拟到达列车并对其赋初值,把出发列车分为可欠轴与不可欠轴两类,在计算过程中调用学习规则保证出发列车满轴,最后求出虚拟到达列车的最小值,得到配流方案。通过简单的算例验证表明,该算法能够在有效的时间内求解大规模的静态配流问题,为静态配流问题提供一种新的方法。     

论惩罚性赔偿的正当性

惩罚性赔偿在我国一些法律制度中已有所体现。惩罚性赔偿的正当性,是惩罚性赔偿制度架构的基石。从古代法及宗教教义中发掘惩罚的正当性思想,大陆法系理应蕴含惩罚性赔偿制度。通过经济学的方法,分析补偿性赔偿的缺陷,惩罚性赔偿的产生原因,阐释惩罚性赔偿具有的惩罚、威慑、激励等功能。此外,惩罚性赔偿蕴含着正义,秩序等法律理念,包含着促使民众为权利斗争的精神。惩罚性赔偿外在的工具价值与内在的法律价值,均体现了惩罚性赔偿的正当性。     

论金融衍生品投资者适当性制度

目前国内在金融衍生品市场已初步建立起了投资者适当性制度,且已取得一定实效。但这一法律制度在具体规则的制订和实施中仍缺乏明确的定位,存在不少问题。因此不能过于依赖这一制度,而应通过这一制度的认真实施和不断改进,并结合其它制度而逐步建立起完善的投资者法律保护体制,从而形成一套既合理可行又不断完善的法律制度体系,能够坚实有力地促进衍生品市场的稳步和可持续的发展,进而推动整个金融经济的全面健康发展。