中国化泰勒规则的构建与规则利率的估算——基于考虑金融周期信息的潜在产出与自然利率的再估算

我国货币政策正在向价格型调控方式转型,有必要探索符合我国实际的泰勒规则以确定政策利率目标水平,而如何科学合理地估算潜在产出和自然利率是关键。本文对构建多目标下的中国化泰勒规则时应考虑的因素作了深入探讨,并将金融周期信息纳入我国潜在产出的测算,同时采用基于潜在产出的方法对自然利率进行估算,进而分不同情形尝试估算我国的规则利率水平。结果表明,考虑金融周期信息后的潜在产出在金融扩张期将低于传统方法的估计结果,可为政策制定者有效应对经济运行的过热现象或泡沫化状态提供参考;无论是基于何种潜在产出和自然利率的测算组合,将国内外利差、房价涨幅偏离经济增长程度纳入中国化泰勒规则的构建均是合理的;不同情形下估算的规则利率走势,自2004年以来与货币市场利率走势均较为相近,且2013年后随着利率市场化改革的快速推进,差距呈明显缩小态势,但2017年下半年至2018年期间,受国际宏观形势和国内因素影响,估算的规则利率均快速上扬,与货币市场利率走低形成反差。     

广西铁路多式联运发展对策研究

广西作为我国唯一与东盟国家陆海相邻的省区,发展铁路多式联运具有广阔前景和独特优势。基于联运发展环境和班列开行组织2个方面,深入阐述广西铁路多式联运发展现状,分析得出目前存在的联运基础设施亟待完善、各运输方式间协同水平较低、各运输方式分工不够合理、市场综合竞争力有待提高4个方面问题。据此,提出广西铁路多式联运发展对策,即:完善联运设备设施、加强各种交通方式融合、推进运输结构调整、优化联运产品供给、加强技术装备应用,以进一步完善广西铁路多式联运体系,提升社会物流服务整体水平。     

Market or limit orders?

In this paper we investigate the problem of optimal order placement of an asset listed on an exchange using both market and limit orders in a simple model of market dynamics. We seek to understand under which settings it is optimal to place limit or market orders. Limit orders typically lower transaction costs but increase the risk of incomplete order execution, whereas market orders typically have higher transaction costs but are guaranteed to be executed. Rather than considering order book dynamics to determine if a limit order is executed we rely on price dynamics for this. We look at implementation shortfall in this setup with market impact of trading and propose a dynamic program to find the optimal placement of both market and limit orders for risk-neutral and risk-averse traders. With this we find a bound on the expected cost of trading and show that a trader who behaves optimally should always expect to pay less to trade less. We then solve the dynamic program numerically and examine optimal order placement strategies. We find that the decision between market and limit orders is sensitive to price volatility, risk aversion, and trading costs.     

Clustering of intraday order-sizes by uninformed versus informed traders

We examine quantity choice patterns by equity traders across trading hours in the U.S. Controlling for intraday variations in trading activity, we find that traders submit more non-rounded order sizes and more order sizes overall leading up to a day’s market close. Traders who submit more distinct order sizes pay a higher cost to trade, and they are also less informed about future prices. Our results suggest that the goal to satisfy specific quantity demands rises across the day. This differs from total trading demand, which resembles a U-shape pattern intraday, but is consistent with less trade-size clustering at the ends of fiscal quarters.     

Why do traders choose dark markets?

We examine U.S. equity trader use of dark and lit markets. Marketable orders executed in the dark have lower information content and smaller fill rates. Dark orders take longer to execute, but they execute at more favorable prices. Traders are more likely to go dark when the bid-ask spread is wider and those with higher dark participation are more sophisticated. Although market regulators have expressed concern over the rise in dark trading, our results indicate that dark markets provide important benefits to traders that lit markets do not.     

Mastering complexity and changes in projects,economy, and society via Project Management Second Order (PM‐2)

Project Management Second Order (PM‐2) is based on new insights in modern natural and social sciences, which were analyzed in a research program. This was explained in a previously published article in this journal (Saynisch, 2010 ). PM‐2 is a new paradigm and will be the leading concept for the next decades. The concept of PM‐2 was awarded the IPMA Research Award 2007 and the International Centre for Complex Project Management Research Prize 2010. The model represents a reference model. This article will explain the genesis of PM‐2 as well as the principles, methods, and processes. Further, practical use will be discussed and real examples of transfer will be shown as well as PM‐2 in the context of project‐oriented companies. Integration aspects of CPMCS (ICCPM), ICB3 (IPMA), PMBOK® Guide/OPM3® (PMI) as a future view will be shown.     

简述完善企业采购关键点

采购在整个企业的物料产品生产与服务资源中起到了关键性的作用,然而如何使整个采购过程趋于完美化是所以企业的采购部门必须面对的一大问题.答案是将采购部门与企业物流部门紧密的联系在一起,使其达到最晚没的合作,并将采购部门的采购准则标准化将是最好的途径之一.     

The effect of experience and complexity on order and recency bias in decision making by professional accountants

Recently, questions have been raised regarding the impact of experience on the susceptibility of professional accountants to judgment bias—particularly order and recency biases as predicted in the Belief‐Adjustment Model. The Belief‐Adjustment Model predicts recency effects will always exist in complex decision domains (regardless of experience). Complexity is defined within the model as a function of task familiarity and information load. The prior studies on experience and bias in accounting domains have focused on varying task familiarity and have found that task familiarity can mitigate order/recency bias. In this study, complexity is operationalised through heavy information load (a condition more consistent with professional accounting environments) while maintaining a high level of task familiarity. Two experiments were conducted. The first experiment utilised a going concern decision using highly experienced partners and managers. The second experiment was conducted in the insolvency domain and used 87 experienced insolvency practitioners. The results indicate that experience does not mitigate order/recency bias under conditions of heavy information load.