The Workout of Banking Crises: A Macroeconomic Perspective

This paper provides a macroeconomic perspective for governmentinterventions in banking crisis. Such crisis occur when a largenumber of banks fail to meet capital requirements or are insolvent.Using a macroeconomic model with financial intermediation, ouranalyis suggests that strict enforcement of capital-adequaterules suffices in prosperous periods. Capital requirements serveas an indicator for crises interventions in critical stateswhich may require interest rate intervention and restructuringof the banking industry. These policies can be reinforced byrandom bailouts and temporary financial relief, with a largepercentage of the costs being covered by current and futureowners of banks. (JEL D41, E4, G2)     

Strategic Behavior and Consolidation in the Agricultural Biotechnology Industry

We develop a model explaining the consolidation patterns in the agricultural biotechnology industry. Among different consolidation and cooperation mechanisms, we consider collaborative and licensing agreements, joint ventures, acquisitions, and exchanges of ownership and spin-offs. The key results derive from the benefits of coordinated actions, distinction between transferable and nontransferable payoffs, the substitutability, complementarity, and the importance of the managers' noncontractible investments, and access and expansion of markets. Results from the model are used to examine the cooperation and consolidation activities for four major players in the agricultural biotechnology industry, DuPont , Dow Chemical , Monsanto , and Novartis .     

Modeling Conditional Yield Densities

Given the increasing interest in agricultural risk, many have sought improved methods to characterize conditional crop-yield densities. While most have postulated the Beta as a flexible alternative to the Normal, others have chosen nonparametric methods. Unfortunately, yield data tends not to be sufficiently abundant to invalidate many reasonable parametric models. This is problematic because conclusions from economic analyses, which require estimated conditional yield densities, tend not to be invariant to the modeling assumption. We propose a semiparametric estimator that, because of its theoretical properties and our simulation results, enables one to empirically proceed with a higher degree of confidence.     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

养老保险金替代率研究

养老保险金替代率是指一定地区当年离退休(含退职，下同)人员的养老金平均水平与该地区当年职工平均工资水平的比率，其是否合理，将影响到养老保险制度安排和政策取向。养老保险金替代率目标的确定，将受到一个国家或者地区的社会保障水平和经济发展水平等因素的影响。按照中国对基本养老保险制度改革的总体思路，未来基本养老保险金替代率目标确定为60％左右。目前，中国基本养老保险金替代率目标已经接近制度改革的目标，北京市的基本养老保险金替代率明显低于全国水平。企业退休金的替代率又明显低于事业和机关单位的退休金替代率，并呈现持续下降的趋势，应当设法进行遏止。     

电子商务合同成立与认定刍议

随着我国电子商务的加快发展，在理论与实践中，产生了一系列的问题，需要深入研究。电子商务合同与传统的合同制度有不同的特点，尤其是电子商务合同的成立与认定问题。     

Does subsidised temporary employment get the unemployed back to work? Aneconometric analysis of two different schemes

Subsidised employment is an important tool of active labour market policies to improve the reemployment chances of the unemployed. Using unusually informative individual data from administrative records, we investigate the effects of two different schemes of subsidised temporary employment implemented in Switzerland: non-profit employment programmes (EP) and a subsidy for temporary jobs (TEMP) in private and public firms. Econometric matching methods show that TEMP is more successful than EP in getting the unemployed back to work. Compared to not participating in any programme, EP and TEMP are ineffective for unemployed who find jobs easily anyway or have a short unemployment spell. For potential and actual long-term unemployed, both programmes may have positive effects, but the effect of TEMP is larger.     

会计诚信契约的理论框架与实现机制研究

会计诚信是一项非正式制度安排，一种隐含契约，也是企业契约主体之间的信任关系表现。按信任的来源分类，会计诚信可以分为基于制度的会计诚信、基于契约的会计诚信与基于信誉的会计诚信三种。提高会计信息质量必须从制度、契约和信誉三方面加强会计诚信契约的履约机制建设。     

关于养老保险基金的几个问题

文章从建立养老保险基金的意义入手,探讨如何筹集养老保险基金,以迎接我国老龄化社会的到来,最后提出了养老保险基金保值增值的途径。     

对我国银行保险的反思与建议

银行保险在我国发展迅速,已成为保险公司继个险、团险之外的另一个重要销售渠道。但在迅速发展的过程中,也暴露出一些问题。针对当前我国银行保险发展中存在的一些问题,必须改善现有的制度环境、银保双方转变观念、加强产品的开发和创新、提高技术水平、储备人才,这样才能确保银行保险健康发展。