Strategic Behavior and Consolidation in the Agricultural Biotechnology Industry

We develop a model explaining the consolidation patterns in the agricultural biotechnology industry. Among different consolidation and cooperation mechanisms, we consider collaborative and licensing agreements, joint ventures, acquisitions, and exchanges of ownership and spin-offs. The key results derive from the benefits of coordinated actions, distinction between transferable and nontransferable payoffs, the substitutability, complementarity, and the importance of the managers' noncontractible investments, and access and expansion of markets. Results from the model are used to examine the cooperation and consolidation activities for four major players in the agricultural biotechnology industry, DuPont , Dow Chemical , Monsanto , and Novartis .     

Modeling Conditional Yield Densities

Given the increasing interest in agricultural risk, many have sought improved methods to characterize conditional crop-yield densities. While most have postulated the Beta as a flexible alternative to the Normal, others have chosen nonparametric methods. Unfortunately, yield data tends not to be sufficiently abundant to invalidate many reasonable parametric models. This is problematic because conclusions from economic analyses, which require estimated conditional yield densities, tend not to be invariant to the modeling assumption. We propose a semiparametric estimator that, because of its theoretical properties and our simulation results, enables one to empirically proceed with a higher degree of confidence.     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

养老保险金替代率研究

养老保险金替代率是指一定地区当年离退休(含退职，下同)人员的养老金平均水平与该地区当年职工平均工资水平的比率，其是否合理，将影响到养老保险制度安排和政策取向。养老保险金替代率目标的确定，将受到一个国家或者地区的社会保障水平和经济发展水平等因素的影响。按照中国对基本养老保险制度改革的总体思路，未来基本养老保险金替代率目标确定为60％左右。目前，中国基本养老保险金替代率目标已经接近制度改革的目标，北京市的基本养老保险金替代率明显低于全国水平。企业退休金的替代率又明显低于事业和机关单位的退休金替代率，并呈现持续下降的趋势，应当设法进行遏止。     

Incentives for voluntary disclosure

Rule l0b-5 of the 1934 Securities and Exchange Act allows investors to sue firms for misrepresentation or omission. Since firms are principal–agent contracts between owners – contract designers – and privately informed managers, owners are the ultimate firms’ voluntary disclosure strategists. We analyze voluntary disclosure equilibrium in a game with two types of owners: expected liquidating dividends motivated (VMO) and expected price motivated (PMO). We find that Rule l0b-5: (i) does not deter misrepresentation and may suppress voluntary disclosure or, (ii) induces some firms to adopt a partial disclosure policy of disclosing only bad news or only good news.     

电子商务合同成立与认定刍议

随着我国电子商务的加快发展，在理论与实践中，产生了一系列的问题，需要深入研究。电子商务合同与传统的合同制度有不同的特点，尤其是电子商务合同的成立与认定问题。     

Does subsidised temporary employment get the unemployed back to work? Aneconometric analysis of two different schemes

Subsidised employment is an important tool of active labour market policies to improve the reemployment chances of the unemployed. Using unusually informative individual data from administrative records, we investigate the effects of two different schemes of subsidised temporary employment implemented in Switzerland: non-profit employment programmes (EP) and a subsidy for temporary jobs (TEMP) in private and public firms. Econometric matching methods show that TEMP is more successful than EP in getting the unemployed back to work. Compared to not participating in any programme, EP and TEMP are ineffective for unemployed who find jobs easily anyway or have a short unemployment spell. For potential and actual long-term unemployed, both programmes may have positive effects, but the effect of TEMP is larger.     

基于物流保险发展的几点思考

分析在物流业高速发展,其风险亦加大的新形势下物流保险发展迟滞的原因,并提出了促进物流保险发展的相关建议。     

浅析我国工伤保险立法中的几个问题

我国的工伤保险制度曾在我国社会保障体系的建立和完善中发挥了重要作用,但经过几年的实践,逐渐显露出一些问题,主要体现在社会保障作用发挥得不够,工伤范围、工伤认定申请程序不合理,工伤赔偿责任与民事侵权责任的关系不明确等方面。     

养老保险全国统筹、渐进式延迟退休与基金可持续

基于精算模型分析养老金全国统筹与渐进式延迟退休年龄政策对养老保险基金可持续性的影响,结果显示：全国统筹政策在短期使财政负担下降100%,长期内不能有效降低财政负担。在此基础上实施“女先男后”和“男女同步”渐进式延迟退休年龄政策能分别使养老保险累计财政负担降低6.68%和34.36%。为有效减轻养老保险基金支付压力和财政负担,应完善全国统筹政策,并尽快出台渐进式延迟退休年龄方案。