关于社会保险的深层次思考

正确认识社会保险税并非一般意义上的税，而是介于税费之间，从而跳出了目前的费改税之争，对当前我国社会保障制度的构建具有重要的指导作用。关于社会保险模式的选择，结合我国实际，针对不同群体可选择“并列型和个人主导型”。运用收支两条线和提高社会保障立法层次构建起社会保障运行的制约机制。同时，要在工会的参与实施下，通过制度规则建企，构建社会保险的补充形式，如企业保险、社区互助等。     

The minimum variance hedge and the bankruptcy risk of the firm

In this paper, we analyze the influence of hedging with forward contracts on the firm's probability of bankruptcy (POB). The minimization of this probability can serve as a substitute for the maximization of shareholders' wealth. It is shown that the popular minimum variance hedge is generally neither necessary nor sufficient for the minimization of the firm's POB. Moreover, our model suggests a correction of the widespread view that a reduction in the variance of the future value of the firm is inevitably accompanied by a reduction in its default risk. We derive an analytical solution for the variance-minimizing hedge ratio of a firm exposed to both input and output price uncertainty that takes into account the issue of correlation. Based on this solution, we provide a graphical analysis to prove our claim that there is a fundamental difference between hedging policies focused on bankruptcy risk and those following conventional wisdom even if positive correlation constitutes a “natural” hedge.     

Locally Greater Vulnerability to Background Risk

Willingness to take on risk is influenced by the presence of fair and unfair background risks for decision makers who are risk vulnerable as defined by Gollier and Pratt [1996], for these decision makers are more risk averse when they possess such an uninsurable background risk. We present an alternative derivation of the index of local vulnerability based on Diamond and Stiglitz [1974] compensated increases in risk, such that risk aversion increases with the introduction of any small fair background risk if and only if the index of local vulnerability is positive. We establish that the increase in risk aversion is greater for those who are more vulnerable as measured by the index of local vulnerability.     

Capital mobility,wage bargaining,and social insurance policies in an economic union

In a two-country model with mobile capital we analyse decentralized social insurance policies. These policies are a compromise between the preferences of workers and capital owners. Due to wage bargaining, worker-based social insurance contributions are borne by capital owners. These contributions affect the profitability of investment, and consequently the direction and size of capital flows. Countries will take account of these effects in determining social insurance policy. Noncooperative decision making results in tax competition and an underprovision of social insurance. In addition, increasing economic integration, represented by increasing capital mobility, could imply a divergence of social insurance levels in the two countries.     

银行保险的制度变迁理论分析以及对我国的启示

20世纪80年代以来,无论是一直实施混业经营的欧洲,还是近几年重新走上混业经营之路的美国,银行保险都成为一种潮流和趋势。银行保险业务的产生及发展,既源于微观领域经营环境和竞争环境的变化,也源于宏观领域制度管制的放松和信息技术的迅猛发展,更源于银行保险经济学机理带来的范围经济和协同效益。银行保险作为一种制度创新的产物,更多地体现为从销售渠道创新到业务产品创新,再到组织模式创新的金融一体化的制度变迁过程。本文从制度变迁理论的角度对银行保险的产生动因以及演变发展进行分析,以期对我国银行保险的走向提供借鉴。     

Valuing Mortgage Insurance Contracts in Emerging Market Economies

We develop a new option-based method for the valuation of mortgage insurance contracts in closed form in an economy where agents are risk neutral. While the proposed valuation method is general and can be used in any market, it may be particularly useful in emerging market economies where other existing methods may be either inappropriate or are too difficult to implement because of the lack of relevant data. As an application, we price a typical Serbian government-backed mortgage insurance contract.     

银行保险的制度变迁理论分析以及对我国的启示

20世纪80年代以来，无论是一直实施混业经营的欧洲，还是近几年重新走上混业经营之路的美国，银行保险都成为一种潮流和趋势。银行保险业务的产生及发展，既源于微观领域经营环境和竞争环境的变化，也源于宏观领域制度管制的放松和信息技术的迅猛发展，更源于银行保险经济学机理带来的范围经济和协同效益。银行保险作为一种制度创新的产物，更多地体现为从销售渠道创新到业务产品创新，再到组织模式创新的金融一体化的制度变迁过程。本文从制度变迁理论的角度对银行保险的产生动因以及演变发展进行分析，以期对我国银行保险的走向提供借鉴。     

存款保险法律制度利弊之研究

存款保险法律制度是直接针对银行挤兑和破产倒闭而设计的,目的在于保护存款人的利益,增强公众对银行体系的信心,减少挤兑的可能性。我国建立该制度,将有利于维护金融安全,营造公平竞争的市场环境,完善银行的退出机制,从而提高金融业的效率。     

发展我国农村社会养老保险制度的几点思考

长期以来,我国城乡养老社会保障呈现了明显的二元化特征.笔者认为,应该从我国家庭户规模的变化、未来人口发展趋势、经济体制改革以及非经济因素等方面来全面考虑发展农村养老社会保险制度的意义、面临的挑战及改革思路.要根据各地经济发展水平不同建立分地区、分层次的农村养老社会保障制度,必须尽快将农村养老社会保障制度建设纳入法制化轨道,并且应推广发达地区的成功经验,继续进行试点工作.     

The Political Economy of Deposit Insurance

This paper uses a political economy framework to analyze cross-country differences in deposit insurance coverage. It finds supporting evidence of the significance of private interest theories in explaining coverage of deposit insurance. Deposit insurance coverage is significantly higher in countries where poorly capitalized banks dominate the market and in countries where depositors are poorly educated. The analysis does not find that coverage is significantly related to political-institutional variables, such as the degree of democracy or restraints on the executive, or to proxies for the general level of institutional development, such as per capita income or property rights. These results provide evidence in support of the private interest view, according to which risky banks lobby for extensive coverage.