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111.
A theoretical analysis of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is provided, formulating the conditions under which the
NKPC coincides with a real-world relation that is not spurious or misspecified. A time-varying-coefficient (TVC) model, involving
only observed variables, is shown to exactly represent the underlying “true” NKPC under certain conditions. In contrast, “hybrid”
NKPC models, which add lagged-inflation and supply-shock variables, are shown to be spurious and misspecified. We also show
how to empirically implement the NKPC under the assumption that expectations are formed rationally.
We are grateful to C. D. Aliprantis, Harris Dellas and Arnold Zellner for helpful comments. The questions and comments of
an anonymous referee were extremely stimulating. The views expressed are the authors’ own and do not constitute policy of
their respective institutions. 相似文献
112.
Summary. This paper introduces the framework of rational beliefs of Kurz (1994), which makes the assumptions of heterogeneous beliefs
of Harrison and Kreps (1978) and Morris (1996) more plausible. Agents hold diverse beliefs that are “rational” in the sense
of being compatible with ample observed data. In a non-stationary environment the agents only learn about the stationary measure
of observed data, but their beliefs can remain non-stationary and diverse. Speculative trading then stems from disagreements
among traders. In a Markovian framework of dividends and beliefs, we obtain analytical results to show how the speculative
premium depends on the extent of heterogeneity of beliefs. In addition, we demonstrate that there exists a unique Rational
Belief Equilibrium (RBE) generically with endogenous uncertainty (as defined by Kurz and Wu, 1996) and that the RBE price
is higher than the rational expectation equilibrium price (REE) under some general conditions
Received: March 15, 2001; revised version: April 26, 2002
RID="*"
ID="*" We are deeply grateful to Mordecai Kurz for his constant encouragement and inspiring guidance over the years. We wish
to express our gratitude to an anonymous referee for the very valuable comments provided. We also thank Kenneth Arrow, Peter
Hammond, Roko Aliprantis and Nicholas Yannelis for their helpful suggestions and Academia Sinica and the National Science
Council of the R.O.C. for their indispensable support.
Correspondence to: H.-M. Wu 相似文献
113.
Summary. In the context of differential information economies, with and without free disposal, we consider the concepts of Radner
equilibrium, rational expectations equilibrium, private core, weak fine core and weak fine value. We look into the possible
implementation of these concepts as perfect Bayesian or sequential equilibria of noncooperative dynamic formulations. We construct
relevant game trees which indicate the sequence of decisions and the information sets, and explain the rules for calculating
ex ante expected payoffs. The possibility of implementing an allocation is related to whether or not it is incentive compatible.
Implementation through an exogenous third party or an endogenous intermediary is also considered.
Received: November 19, 2001; revised version: April 17, 2002
RID="*"
ID="*" This paper comes out of a visit by Nicholas Yannelis to City University, London, in December 2000. We are grateful
to Dr A. Hadjiprocopis for his invaluable help with the implementation of Latex in a Unix environment. We also thank Leon
Koutsougeras and a referee for several, helpful comments.
Correspondence to: N.C. Yannelis 相似文献
114.
This is an introduction to the special section on the economic theory of bubbles. 相似文献
115.
Rodolfo Signorino 《European Journal of the History of Economic Thought》2013,20(2):329-330
The paper focuses on Blaug's distinction between rational and historical reconstruction within the historiography of economics. Blaug's distinction is shown to be sterile and misleading and his definitions of no avail to clear thinking. Historical reconstruction (as defined by Blaug) is en empty box for reasons which are basically theoretical and not simply practical (as Blaug seems to hold). Moreover, Blaug's primary polemical target is Whig historiography and not rational reconstruction: the two concepts coincide only by means of an ad hoc definition. Blaug's criticism does not apply to other uses of the concept of rational reconstruction such as that proposed by Lakatos. 相似文献
116.
Maurizio Motolese 《Economic Theory》2001,18(1):97-126
Summary. In Rational Beliefs Equilibria money is generically non-neutral. Given the expectational perspective proposed by the Theory
of Rational Belief Equilibrium, we show that one of the most important factors in the emergence of money non-neutrality is
played by Endogenous Uncertainty. This, in contrast to the Rational Expectations results of money neutrality and policy ineffectiveness, leads to a scenario
in which monetary policy has an impact on the real economy and price volatility. The heterogeneity of beliefs together with
the distribution and intensity of agents' states of optimism/pessimism can amplify the real effect of monetary policy and/or
generate endogenous fluctuations in the economy which are not explained by any exogenous shock. We claim that money non-neutrality
is mostly an expectations driven phenomenon. Indeed, additional assumptions of asymmetry of information and/or unanticipated
monetary policy are not needed to explain the real effect of monetary policy as it is customary in the New Classical Theory.
Received: May 30, 2000; revised version: December 28, 2000 相似文献
117.
Endogenous uncertainty and market volatility 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
We advance the theory that the distribution of beliefs in the market is the most important propagation mechanism of economic volatility. Our model is based on the theory of Rational Beliefs (RB) and Rational Belief Equilibrium (RBE) developed by
Kurz (1994, 1997). We argue that the diverse market puzzles which are examined, such as the equity premium puzzle, are all
driven by the structure of market expectations. In support of our view, we present an RBE model with which we study financial
markets. The model is able to simulate the correct order of magnitude of: (i) the long term mean and standard deviation of
the price\dividend ratio; (ii) the long term mean and standard deviation of the risky rate of return on equities; (iii) the
long term mean and standard deviation of the riskless rate; (iv) the long term mean equity premium. In addition, the model
predicts (v) the GARCH property of risky asset returns; (vi) the observed pattern of the predictability of long returns on
assets, and (vii) the Forward Discount Bias in foreign exchange markets. The common economic explanation for these phenomena
is the existence of heterogenous agents with diverse but correlated beliefs such that some agents are optimistic and some
pessimistic about future capital gains. The model has a unique parameterization under which the model makes all the above
predictions simultaneously. The parameterization requires the optimists to be in the majority but the rationality of belief conditions of the RBE require
the pessimists to have a higher intensity level. In simple terms, the large equity premium and the low equilibrium riskless
rate are the result of the fact that at any moment of time there are agents who hold extreme pessimistic beliefs and they
have a relatively stronger impact on the market. The paper also studies the effect of correlation of beliefs among investors.
It shows that the main effect of such correlation is on the dynamic patterns of asset prices and returns and is hence important
for studying such phenomena as stochastic volatility.
Received: May 16, 2000; revised version: November 15, 2000 相似文献
118.
在广大发展中国家及欠发达地区,农户参与正规金融市场的程度很低,尤其是贫困农户的参与度更低。已有的研究认为正规金融部门实施的信贷配给导致了上述现象的发生。而本文提出一个新的命题:农户偏好从非正规金融市场借款是出于成本收益的算计,是既定约束条件下的理性选择,越贫困的农户越偏好农村非正规金融市场。此外,还运用数理模型论证了该命题在理论上成立的可能性,并通过对相关调研资料的梳理及实地调研为该命题的成立提供了充分的经验证据。 相似文献
119.
We show by means of an example that the result of Arrow [Arrow, K.J. (1953), Le rôle des valeurs boursières pour la répartition la meilleure des risques, Econométrie, 41–47, CNRS, Paris; translated as The role of securities in the optimal allocation of risk bearing, Review of Economic Studies, 31, 91–96] is problematic when there exist multiple equilibrium continuations to the initial-period component of an intertemporal equilibrium. 相似文献
120.
Convergence for difference equations with vanishing time-dependence, with applications to adaptive learning 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Summary. We provide conditions for local stability and instability of an equilibrium point in certain systems of nonautonomous nonstochastic
difference equations. In the systems under study the influence of time is present through a positive scalar “gain” parameter
which converges in the limit to zero. These systems have recently been used to study the dynamics of adaptive learning in
economic models, and we provide two economic illustrations of the formal results.
Received: October 7, 1997; revised version: February 8, 1999 相似文献