Money non-neutrality in a Rational Belief Equilibrium with financial assets

Summary. In Rational Beliefs Equilibria money is generically non-neutral. Given the expectational perspective proposed by the Theory of Rational Belief Equilibrium, we show that one of the most important factors in the emergence of money non-neutrality is played by Endogenous Uncertainty. This, in contrast to the Rational Expectations results of money neutrality and policy ineffectiveness, leads to a scenario in which monetary policy has an impact on the real economy and price volatility. The heterogeneity of beliefs together with the distribution and intensity of agents' states of optimism/pessimism can amplify the real effect of monetary policy and/or generate endogenous fluctuations in the economy which are not explained by any exogenous shock. We claim that money non-neutrality is mostly an expectations driven phenomenon. Indeed, additional assumptions of asymmetry of information and/or unanticipated monetary policy are not needed to explain the real effect of monetary policy as it is customary in the New Classical Theory. Received: May 30, 2000; revised version: December 28, 2000     

Switching bubbles: From Outside to Inside Bubbles

The United States has recently experienced two asset price bubbles: the Dot-Com and the Housing Bubbles. These bubbles had very different effects on investment and debt of manufacturing firms. In this paper I develop a framework to understand the differential effect of two types of rational bubbles. I distinguish between (i) Outside Bubbles, which I define as savers purchasing and selling costless assets not-attached to inputs of production and (ii) Inside Bubbles, which I define as savers buying an input of production (e.g., land or houses) only as a store of value. The model is an OLG economy with savers and entrepreneurs. Savers save to consume when they are old. Entrepreneurs can borrow to invest but they face a collateral constraint. In this environment, rational bubbles can emerge. I show that the size of an Inside Bubble is larger. I also find that when the economy switches from an Outside to an Inside Bubble, manufacturing (or non-housing) investment and debt is lower, consistent with the U.S. experience. Finally, I show that even though steady-state consumption is higher with an Outside Bubble, a social planner would prefer an Inside Bubble when the productivity of entrepreneurs is low.     

有效承接发达地区产业转移的金融政策选择——以广西为例

生产要素流动是区际产业转移的推动器,而此其中资金的流动和投资又是实现产业转移目标和提升产业转移绩效的关键。国内外的成功经验也表明,金融产业转移既是产业转移的重要领域,而且往往又是其中的先行领域,因此现阶段在承接区际产业转移的过程中,大力发展金融产业、积极构建有效的地方系统性的金融政策体系以及制定和实施有效的金融倾斜政策,无疑具有重要的现实意义。     

需求曲线的形状及其内在逻辑——破解吉芬之谜、构建中国经济学的消费者行为模型

经济学界在探讨需求曲线问题时经常颠倒了理论与现象或者事实之间的关系、颠倒了价格与需求量之间的因果关系、混淆了个别需求曲线和市场需求曲线,在不知不觉中陷入了一个无法自拔的逻辑困境。消费者的需求量不仅要受到市场价格变化的影响,还要受到其拟选行为的机会成本变化的影响。而消费者的需求价格是由其收入水平和偏好决定的。把“向右下方倾斜的需求曲线”当作一个描述消费者行为的具有普遍意义的定律,是不科学的。     

(Im)Balanced customer-oriented behaviors and AI chatbots' Efficiency–Flexibility performance: The moderating role of customers’ rational choices

Artificial intelligence (AI) based chatbots are increasingly deployed in frontline encounters, because they combine frontline service efficiency and flexibility. Using a large-scale data set with more than 130,000 man–machine dialogues from an e-bike sharing platform, Study 1 reveals a complex relationship between chatbots' customer-oriented behaviors and their efficiency–flexibility ambidexterity. Chatbots' level of efficiency–flexibility ambidexterity is higher when their functional and relational customer-oriented behaviors are balanced rather than imbalanced (i.e., a negative imbalance effect) and when they are balanced at a higher rather than a lower level (i.e., a positive balance effect). A follow-up experiment, Study 2, and online survey, Study 3, consistently show that the negative imbalance effect is stronger as customers' perceptions of non-personalization costs decrease and privacy concerns increase, while opportunity cost has no significant influence on the negative imbalance effect. However, consistent with rational choice theory, the positive balance effect is stronger as non-personalization costs increase, privacy concerns decrease, and opportunity cost decreases. In addition, Study 1 and 3 consistently show that in alignment with the stimulus–organism–response framework, efficiency–flexibility ambidexterity partially mediates the relationship between chatbots’ (im)balanced customer-oriented behaviors and customer patronage. This study contributes to the literature on frontline ambidexterity by introducing an AI application context and a more nuanced nonlinear view of the antecedents and consequences of frontline ambidexterity.     

市场调研在产品前期设计中的运用

企业在决定开发新产品的过程中,首先需要对市场有一个全方位的了解,在理性分析和严格定位现有产品的基础上,再来进行新产品的开发设计,这样才能做到有的放矢。本文就是立足于产品前期的设计定位研究,通过对现阶段国内外调研方法的比较。总结出了一套适合目前国内企业进行产品前期设计的市场调研方法,并对其进行了可行性分析。     

Industry policy,investor sentiment,and cross-industry capital flow: Evidence from Chinese listed companies’ cross-industry M&As

This study investigates how the government’s industry policies affect investor sentiment, and whether the influenced investor sentiment guides corporate capital flow in the real economy. By examining a sample of cross-industry mergers and acquisitions (M&As) of Chinese listed companies, we find that industry policies promulgated by the government have a significant asymmetric influence on investor sentiment. Furthermore, investor sentiment under the exogenous shock of industry policies has a significant real effect on companies’ cross-industry M&A behavior, generating cross-industry capital flow. Additional analyses reveal that this effect arises because the acquirer depends on equity financing and has incentive to cater to investor sentiment. Our findings help clarify the effect of public policies on the stock market, theoretically, from the company’s micro-level perspective, as well as the mechanism by which stock market volatility transmits to the real economy.     

Adaptive learning,endogenous uncertainty,and asymmetric dynamics

I present a simple model where forecasting confidence affects aggregate demand. It is shown that this model has similar stability properties, under statistical and evolutionary learning, as a model without a confidence affect. From this setup, I introduce “Expectational Business Cycles” where output fluctuates due to learning, heterogeneous forecasting models and random changes in the efficient forecasting model. Agents use one of two forecasting models to forecast future variables while heterogeneity is dictated via an evolutionary process. Increased uncertainty, due to a shock to the structure of the economy, may result in a sudden decrease in output. As agents learn the equilibrium, output slowly increases to its equilibrium value. Expectational business cycles tend to arrive faster, last longer and are more severe as agents possess less information.     

Introduction to economic theory of bubbles

This is an introduction to the special section on the economic theory of bubbles.