Global convergence of adaptive learning in models of pure exchange

Summary. This paper develops an adaptive learning scheme for a standard version of the OLG model with pure exchange. Perfect forecasting rules which generate perfect foresight orbits are approximated by cubic spline functions. These approximations are successively constructed using historical data only. Trajectories generated by this scheme converge to perfect foresight orbits globally for all initial conditions. This result holds for all parameterizations guaranteeing the existence of a monetary steady state and hence is independent of consumers' savings behavior. It generalizes to all one-dimensional models of the Cobweb type. Received: October 5, 2000; revised version: February 15, 2001     

Estimation of a rational expectations model of the term structure

This paper shows how to represent a vector autoregression (VAR) in terms of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of its companion matrix. This representation is used to impose the exact restrictions implied by the expectations hypothesis on the VAR for short and long term interest rates and to calculate the restricted maximum likelihood estimates. The first difference representation for short and long rates used by Sargent (1979) is shown to be inconsistent with the expectations hypothesis, but a VAR with two unit roots is constructed that satisfies the exact restrictions and leads to similar restricted estimates.     

Stochastic interest rates under rational inattention

This paper introduces state uncertainty due to information-processing constraints into the Vasicek model to examine the impacts of rational inattention. By exploiting the term structure of interest rates, we derive closed-form solutions for the subjective bond price and the corresponding bond yield and find that uncertainty induced by informational frictions plays vital roles in undervaluing the bond price and overestimating the bond yield. Furthermore, we clarify the applications of interest rate dynamics under rational inattention and generate the following results: (i) there is an ambiguous relationship between the investor’s channel capacity and option price; (ii) an increase in state uncertainty via a change in the degree of channel capacity is likely to accelerate investment.     

Industry policy,investor sentiment,and cross-industry capital flow: Evidence from Chinese listed companies’ cross-industry M&As

This study investigates how the government’s industry policies affect investor sentiment, and whether the influenced investor sentiment guides corporate capital flow in the real economy. By examining a sample of cross-industry mergers and acquisitions (M&As) of Chinese listed companies, we find that industry policies promulgated by the government have a significant asymmetric influence on investor sentiment. Furthermore, investor sentiment under the exogenous shock of industry policies has a significant real effect on companies’ cross-industry M&A behavior, generating cross-industry capital flow. Additional analyses reveal that this effect arises because the acquirer depends on equity financing and has incentive to cater to investor sentiment. Our findings help clarify the effect of public policies on the stock market, theoretically, from the company’s micro-level perspective, as well as the mechanism by which stock market volatility transmits to the real economy.     

需求曲线的形状及其内在逻辑——破解吉芬之谜、构建中国经济学的消费者行为模型

经济学界在探讨需求曲线问题时经常颠倒了理论与现象或者事实之间的关系、颠倒了价格与需求量之间的因果关系、混淆了个别需求曲线和市场需求曲线,在不知不觉中陷入了一个无法自拔的逻辑困境。消费者的需求量不仅要受到市场价格变化的影响,还要受到其拟选行为的机会成本变化的影响。而消费者的需求价格是由其收入水平和偏好决定的。把“向右下方倾斜的需求曲线”当作一个描述消费者行为的具有普遍意义的定律,是不科学的。     

抗菌药物实行分级管理的应用与体会

目的评价我院开展抗菌药物分级管理的应用效果,并总结一些实施过程中的经验和个人体会。方法以我院开展抗菌类药物分级管理前后使用抗菌药物的情况为材料,具体分析抗菌药物分级管理的效果。结果实施抗菌类药物的分级管理后,我院抗生素使用率明显下降,特殊使用级抗菌药物的使用得到有效控制,抗菌类药物的联合使用率下降。结论抗菌类药物分级管理是控制其滥用,促进合理用药的好方法,但其在实施时,需加强医疗机构本身的监督管理和对患者的健康教育。     

临床药师在糖尿病治疗中的药学服务

目的：探讨糖尿病治疗中临床药师的药学服务方法。方法临床药师在糖尿病治疗中,利用自身的药学知识,同时结合药学服务实践,给患者提供相应的药学服务。结果临床药师积极指导糖尿病患者治疗,可提高患者用药依从性,使药物疗效更加明显。结论临床药师在糖尿病治疗中给予合理的用药指导,对提高血糖控制率有着积极的意义,同时也能体现出临床药师的应用价值。     

Uncertainty about average profitability and the diversification discount

The diversification discount (multiple segment firm value below the value imputed using single segment firm multiples) is commonly thought to be generated by agency problems, a lack of transparency, or lackluster future prospects for diversified firms. If multiple segment firms have lower uncertainty about mean profitability than single segment firms, rational learning about mean profitability provides an alternative explanation for the diversification discount that does not rely on suboptimal managerial decisions or a poor firm outlook. Empirical tests which examine changes in firm value across the business cycle and idiosyncratic volatility are consistent with lower uncertainty about mean profitability for multiple segment firms.     

上市公司可持续发展有效途径的探讨

在当前资本市场中,我国上市公司的盈利能力不断提高,但是上市公司的可持续发展问题也随之而来,如何处理好我国上市公司的可持续发展问题将成为我们关注的焦点。本文从上市公司发展的动力机制出发,对我国上市公司的现状进行了论述,分析了阻碍上市公司可持续发展的原因,并提出建立上市公司可持续发展机制的有效途径。