可持续公共债务水平下的政府违约问题研究

现实经济中存在公共债务具有可持续性时却发生政府违约的现象,本文在政府未来收支波动具有不确定性的假设下,建立一个政府与投资者的重复博弈模型以分析这一现象,研究发现:公共债务可持续性并不能完全排除政府违约风险,在政府未来基本盈余不确定的条件下,理性投资者愿意持有的公共债务水平远低于可持续的公共债务水平,两者的差异取决于政府对未来基本盈余的控制能力.     

我院住院病人抗菌药物用药分析

目的:对北京大学人民医院住院病人2009年上、下半年抗菌药物的使用情况进行统计,分析抗菌药物使用特点和趋势,为临床合理用药和科学管理抗菌药物提供依据。方法:从微机管理系统中随机调取3月3日和9月1日两日住院病人的用药情况,分析住院病人抗菌药物的使用率、联合用药、抗菌药物的用药频度等。结果:抗菌药物的临床使用主要以喹诺酮类和头孢菌素类为主,联合用药主要以单一品种用药为主。结论:人民医院抗菌药物仍存在不合理使用的问题,医院应采取措施加强监管,促进抗菌药物合理使用。     

有理Bézier曲线段的几何连续拼接

本文提出了通过调整权因子而不是改变控制顶点来修改有理三次Bézier样条曲线的形状,实现了相邻两段Bézier曲线间的G3连续拼接;实现了两段分离的Bézier曲线之间的G3连续过渡;在不改变给定控制顶点的情况下,能实现整体曲率连续的闭曲线造型;在仅仅修改或插入两点的情形下实现了整体G3连续的闭曲线造型。     

Optimal policy in Markov-switching rational expectations models

In this paper we consider the optimal quadratic control problem of Markov-switching linear rational expectation models. These models are general and flexible tools for modelling not only regime but also model or parameter uncertainty. We show, first, how to find the solution of a Markov-switching linear rational expectation model. Based on this solution we then show how to apply dynamic programming to find the optimal time-consistent policy and the resulting Nash-Stackelberg equilibrium. Suitable modifications of the algorithm allow to deal with the (non-RE) case in which the policymaker and the private sector hold different beliefs or probabilities over regime change. We also show how the optimisation procedure can be employed to obtain the optimal policy under commitment. As an illustration we compute the optimal policy in a small open economy subject to stochastic structural breaks in some of its key parameters.     

审理开发商出售小区地下车库（车位）案件的几个疑难问题

《物权法》第74条规定了住宅小区车位、车库的归属及利用规则。但是,《物权法》的实施并没有起到完全定分止争的效果。理论界有关小区地下车库（车位）尤其是结建人防工程归属的争议一直存在,司法实践上也存在着裁判各异的案例。本文试以两个小区地下车库、车位的真实案例为研究对象,对此问题进行探讨,以期对《物权法》第74条的正确适用有...     

房地产价格预期评估模型研究

人们的预期直接影响着房地产价格的波动,而房地产价格的波动又影响着居民在消费和储蓄上的选择行为,影响着国内经济的持续稳定发展。本文在回顾关于预期与房地产价格波动关系的研究成果基础上,分析了人们预期形成的来源,构建了基于理性预期的房地产价格预期评估模型,并给出了模型的识别和参数估计方法。     

结构化布线浅谈

随着我国经济的高速发展，许多政府办公大楼和各种商用高层建筑如雨后春笋般拔地而起。为了适应计算机网络和通信技术的发展，支持话音和数据的结构化布线系统。将在现代智能建筑中发挥重要的作用。     

Rational bubbles and non-risk neutral investors in Japan

This paper presents a sufficient condition for not observing rational bubbles in real stock prices when investors are not risk neutral and both the real interest rate and the risk premium are time varying. If the risk premium and the real interest rate are stationary, the stationarity of the first differences of real stock prices is a sufficient condition for the absence of rational bubbles. Testing this condition with data on Japanese stock prices, we find that the hypothesis that rational bubbles existed is rejected.     

The Boom and the Slump: a Causal Account of the 1990s/2000s and the 1920s/1930s

Not all booms are alike, nor are slumps. The institutions and the shocks are never exactly the same. Yet the late 1990s boom, and its unwinding, strikingly parallel the boom of the roaring 1920s, the deep decline into the early 1930s andonly a partial rebound. Both experiences began with an investment boom, then a downturn in investment while consumption held up. Economic activity closely tracked investment. The realizations of extraordinary productivity gains were present in the problematic and incomplete recovery of the 1930s, which suggests the possibility that return to the medium‐term natural rate of unemployment may be a rather long process. I expect the rest of the decade to resemble the rest of the 1930s – a limited recovery with investment and employment below historical norms.     

Establish Rational Ecological Man to Construct the Harmonious Society

Rational Ecological Man （REM） is the integration of government, enterprise and the public, which plays an important role in our society. This paper firstly clarifies the definition of REM and regards that REM differs essentially from Rational Economic Man. Subsequently, the.paper analyzes the signi＇ficance of establishing REM to construct the harmonious society. Finally, the paper provides some specific suggestions on how to establish REM.