Establish Rational Ecological Man to Construct the Harmonious Society

Rational Ecological Man （REM） is the integration of government, enterprise and the public, which plays an important role in our society. This paper firstly clarifies the definition of REM and regards that REM differs essentially from Rational Economic Man. Subsequently, the.paper analyzes the signi＇ficance of establishing REM to construct the harmonious society. Finally, the paper provides some specific suggestions on how to establish REM.     

Equilibrium Correlations of Asset Price and Return

Two empirical questions concerning the equity and housing have been studied extensively: (1) Are the price and return serially correlated, and (2) What is the optimal weight of housing in the portfolio? The answer to the second question crucially depends on the cross-correlation of assets. This paper complements the literature by building a simple dynamic general equilibrium with fully rational agents, and obtain closed form solutions for the implied auto- and cross-correlations. The length of time horizon, as well as the persistence of economic shock matter. Implications and future research directions are then discussed.     

中国蓝筹股群体稀缺原因及其壮大路径选择

近年来我国证券市场波动较大。一方面，证券市场需要蓝筹股群众的支撑；另一方面，许多优质大盘蓝筹股又纷纷到海外上市。如何改变我国证券市场的现状，并培育出我国证券市场强大的蓝筹群众，成为值得讨论的重要议题。蓝筹股对于中国证券市场具有重要作用。应当对我国蓝筹股现状及其稀缺原因进行深入探讨，并作出壮大策略选择。     

Information acquisition and mutual funds

We study the formation of mutual funds by generalizing the standard competitive noisy rational expectations framework. In our model, informed agents set up mutual funds as a means of selling their private information to uninformed agents. We study the case of imperfect competition among fund managers, where uninformed agents invest simultaneously in multiple mutual funds. The size of the assets under management in the mutual fund industry is determined by endogenizing the agents' information acquisition decisions. Our model yields novel predictions on the informativeness of price, the optimal fees of mutual funds, and the equilibrium risk premium. In particular, we show that a sufficiently competitive mutual fund sector yields more informative prices and a lower equity risk premium.     

Inflation indexed bonds and monetary theory

Summary. The introduction of inflation indexed bonds, or “tips” - treasury inflation protected securities, provides important new data for analyzing the state of the economy and for assessing the validity and significance of macroeconomic theories. This note will show that tip yields contain information for predicting real variables. Furthermore, the inclusion of tip yields supersedes the role of nominal variables - both the ten year nominal bond and fed funds rate - for incrementally predicting (Granger causing) real variables. The data support the notion of block exogeneity - the lack of feedback from nominal to real variables. This result would appear to be inconsistent with the idea that monetary policy, as implemented through changes in the fed funds rate, has had measurable real effects over this, admittedly brief, sample (See for example Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (1998) who argue that the impulse response functions to fed fund shocks can be used to estimate the response to unanticipated policy shocks. However they find that these have not been a major source of output fluctuations. The present study implies that such inferences are not robust to the introduction of tip yields). Received: 7 August 2004, Revised: 19 December 2004 JEL Classification Numbers: E01, E04, E05.Laurence Weiss: I thank Bob Litterman and Bob Lucas for discussion and inspiration.     

试论商标的合理使用制度

商标的合理使用制度是对商标权限制的一个重要内容，但是我国的现行《商标法》并未对商标的合理使用做出明确的规定，导致了实践中的许多案件无法可依。本文将对商标的合理使用进行理论界定，结合国内的实践，借鉴国外的先进立法，对我国商标的合理使用制度进行立法完善。     

关于民间融资的理性思考

目前,民间融资日趋活跃,已经成为一种普遍存在的经济现象。它在发挥推动经济发展、优化资源配置、补充正规金融机构等正面效应的同时,也带来了引发道德风险、干扰金融秩序、削弱宏观调控等方面的负面效应。本文在对民间融资做出理性思考之后,提出了引导民间融资健康发展的可行性建议。     

中国通货膨胀预期:理性还是适应性

在介绍我国通胀预期测量与估计方法的基础上,分析差额法、正态分布概率法、均匀分布概率法和Logistic分布概率法下通胀预期的形成机制。研究表明,通胀预期的理性或适应性的判断取决于我国居民对未来物价预期所服从的分布,均匀分布下的通胀预期具有较强的特殊性,并且这种分布直接影响着政策制定部门抑制通胀的侧重方向。     

Expectations as a source of macroeconomic persistence: Evidence from survey expectations in a dynamic macro model

Embedding survey expectations in a standard DSGE model helps to identify key slope parameters in standard relationships; dramatically reduces the need for lagged dependent variables, often motivated by price-indexation and habit formation; and obviates the need for autocorrelated structural shocks in the key equations. Formal statistical tests demonstrate that much of the persistence in aggregate data is better accounted for by slow-moving expectations, rather than by habits, indexation and autocorrelated structural shocks.