Structural stability and model design

The paper introduces the concept of structural stability and proposes that it should be considered a necessary property of scientifically valid models. Formalization of the concept is considered in both linear and non-linear models. A strong preference in favour of the wider use of non-linear models is supported by consideration of the dangers of linearization in dynamic models. The importance of structural stability is demonstrated with reference to dynamic rational expectations models which exhibit the saddle-point property. In such cases convergence to equilibrium is shown to be a structurally unstable property which can be forced by restrictive auxillary assumptions, which are highlighted.     

Some political determinants of economic growth: Theory and empirical implications

This work studies the effects of the political environs on economic growth. The theoretical result from a mathematical model suggests that regime instability, political polarization, and government repression all have a negative impact on economic growth. A cross-sectional analysis of 88 countries over the period of 1974–1990 provides preliminary confirmation of three implications derived from the theoretical model.     

我国西部欠发达地区农村金融范式的比较与选择

中国西部欠发达地区的农村金融究竟采取何种范式?在对国际上普遍存在的农业信贷补贴范式、农村金融市场范式和不完全竞争市场范式进行对比分析的基础上,提出了市场主导下的不完全竞争市场范式这一命题。     

From teleology to evolution

This paper focuses on the uneasy alliance of rational choice and evolutionary explanations in modern economics. While direct evolutionary explanations rule out "purposeful" rational choice by assuming "zero-intelligence" and pure rational choice explanations leave no room for "selective" adaptation, the indirect evolutionary approach integrates both perspectives. Subsequently we go stepwise "from teleology to evolution" and thereby study the model spectrum ranging from pure rational choice over indirect to direct evolutionary approaches. We believe that knowledge of this spectrum can help us to choose more adequate models of economic behavior that incorporate both teleological and evolutionary elements.JEL Classification: C72, B52, B59We gratefully acknowledge the very helpful constructive comments, corrections and the encouragement of our referee. Of course, the conventional disclaimer applies.Correspondence to: S. Berninghaus     

Non-implementation of rational expectations as a perfect Bayesian equilibrium

Summary. We point out several conceptual difficulties of the rational expectations equilibrium concept. In particular we show that such an equilibrium need not be incentive compatible and need not be implementable as a perfect Bayesian equilibrium . A comparison of rational expectations equilibria with the private core is also provided. We conclude that the private core is a more appropriate concept to capture the idea of contracts under asymmetric information.Received: 15 December 2003, Revised: 18 November 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C71, C72, D5, D82. Correspondence to: Nicholas C. YannelisWe wish to thank Dr A. Hadjiprocopis for his invaluable help with the implementation of Latex in a Unix environment.     

Rational expectations and fixed-event forecasts: An application to UK inflation

This paper tests a version of the rational expectations hypothesis using ‘fixed-event’ inflation forecasts for the UK. Fixed-event forecasts consist of a panel of forecasts for a set of outturns of a series at varying horizons prior to each outturn. The forecasts are the prediction of fund managers surveyed by Merrill Lynch. Fixed-event forecasts allow tests for whether expectations are unbiased in a similar fashion to the rest of the literature. But they also permit the conduct of particular tests of forecast efficiency - whether the forecasts make best use of available information - that are not possible with rolling-event data. We find evidence of a positive bias in inflation expectations. Evidence for inefficiency is much less clear cut.First version received: June 2002/ Final version received: November 2003We would like two anonymous referees and an editor for comments that have significantly improved the paper. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of England.     

愤世嫉俗·悲天悯人与批判理性——素质教育漫谈之四

批判理性作为社会理性精神的一个重要方面,在影响和引领社会心态与社会思潮方面起着重要的作用。由于历史的原因,批判概念及其使用在现代中国一直与政治和否定紧密关联。批判理性的匮乏致使批判未能成为知识建构的途径,更多的是一种与个体利益相关的攻击性言说方式。传统的"愤世嫉俗"的批判方式常常造成个体与社会的疏离。当代社会竞争环境中批判的普泛化事实上已进一步促使批判理性的失落并导致社会心态的普遍浮躁。检视康德以来批判概念的理性含义和中国传统"悲天悯人"的融合式批判,寻找历史与现实的统一、经验与理性的统一的批判方式,乃是建构当今中国批判理性,提升社会理性精神和民众素质的重要命题。     

基于RCE条件下双头垄断福利分析

本应用RCE（Rational Conjecture Equilibrium)条件来分析双头垄断企业（厂商）在成本不对称、需求不对称、产品差异化条件下对社会福利产生的不同影响，并说明了RCE条件下的双头垄断模型与cournot模型及社会最优模型的关系，提出在“结构－行为－绩效（SCP）”研究中，行为是一个重要的因素，即使在同一结构下，不同行为将会产生不同的绩效与福利。     

投资者理性预期、流动性约束与股价崩盘传染研究

“传染性”是股价崩盘三大基本特征之一,会加剧股价崩盘负面影响,甚至引发系统性金融风险,因此,本文重点关注股价崩盘传染机制研究。首先,本文基于两阶段理性预期均衡模型,提出股价崩盘传染两大假设,即投资者理性预期与流动性约束导致传染;其次,基于2000-2016年全球28个国家或地区资本市场数据,实证检验股价崩盘传染机制和传染渠道。研究显示:(1)投资者理性预期、流动性约束会导致股价崩盘发生传染;(2)股价崩盘事件会在资本市场关联国家或地区传染;(3)提高资本市场信息透明度、加强金融管制有助于降低受关联国家或地区股价崩盘传染。     

Expectations in micro data: rationality revisited

An increasing number of longitudinal data sets collect expectations information regarding a variety of future individual level events and decisions, providing researchers with the opportunity to explore expectations over micro variables in detail. We present a theoretical framework and an econometric methodology to use that type of information to test the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis in models of individual behavior. This RE assumption at the micro level underlies a majority of the research in applied fields in economics, and it is the common foundation of most work in dynamic models of individual behavior. We present tests of three different types of expectations using two different panel data sets that represent two very different populations. In all three cases we cannot reject the RE hypothesis. Our results support a wide variety of models in economics, and other disciplines, that assume rational behavior. We would like to acknowledge outstanding research assistance from Huan Ni. The Michigan Retirement Research Center (MRRC) and the TIAA-CREF Institute made this research possible through their financial support of two related projects. Benítez-Silva also acknowledges the financial support from NIH grant AG1298502 on a related project, and also from the Fundación BBVA, and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology through project number SEJ2005-08783-C04-01, and wants to thank the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland and the Department of Economics at Universitat Pompeu Fabra for their hospitality during the completion of this paper. Three anonymous referees provided excellent comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors are the authors’.