创新管理模式 推进土地房屋登记发证工作

随着人们维权意识的不断提高，迫切要求办理相关的产权证。本文在分析土地房屋发证必要性的基础上，结合实际工作中存在的主要问题，提出了发证工作的新方法。     

Sources of exchange rate fluctuations: Are they real or nominal?

I analyze the role of real and monetary shocks on exchange rate behavior using a structural vector autoregressive model of the US vis-à-vis the rest of the world. The shocks are identified using sign restrictions on the responses of the variables to orthogonal disturbances. These restrictions are derived from the predictions of a two-country DSGE model. I find that monetary shocks are unimportant in explaining exchange rate fluctuations. By contrast, demand shocks explain between 21% and 37% of exchange rate variance at 4-quarter and 20-quarter horizons, respectively. The contribution of demand shocks plays an important role but not of the order of magnitude sometimes found in earlier studies. My results, however, support the recent focus of the literature on real shocks to match the empirical properties of real exchange rates.     

Corporate investment and financing under asymmetric information

We develop a dynamic model of corporate investment and financing decisions in which corporate insiders have superior information about the firm's growth prospects. We show that firms with positive private information can credibly signal their type to outside investors using the timing of corporate actions and their debt-equity mix. Using this result, we show that asymmetric information induces firms with good prospects to speed up investment, leading to a significant erosion of the option value of waiting to invest. Additionally, we demonstrate that informational asymmetries may not translate into a financing hierarchy or pecking order over securities. Finally, we generate a rich set of testable implications relating firms’ investment and financing strategies, abnormal announcement returns, and external financing costs to a number of managerial, firm, and industry characteristics.     

我国房地产开发企业信托融资研究

房地产业是典型的资金密集型行业,相对于投资项目所需资金而言,房地产企业普遍存在自有资金不足的问题,因此必然要依赖于金融体系的资金支持。然而,现阶段我国房地产开发企业融资模式相对单一,主要依赖银行贷款。本文从房地产开发企业的角度出发,以美国为例分析REITs的发展状况及特点,并在此基础上研究和探讨我国房地产企业信托融资问题。     

美国房地产泡沫、世界经济不平衡与金融危机——兼驳金融危机根源外部论

对于世界经济不平衡与金融危机的关系,存在两种不同的观点:一种观点认为世界经济不平衡是金融危机产生的根源,顺差国庞大的过剩储蓄最终引发了金融危机;而另一种观点则认为愈演愈烈的世界经济不平衡却并不必然造成金融危机,而是同金融危机一样,根源于美国国内经济的某些扭曲。两者差别在于将危机的根源归于外因还是内因。本文通过理论分析与格兰杰因果实证检验,否定了危机根源外部论,并证明了后一种观点:美国房地产泡沫(美国国内经济扭曲的重要表现)在造成金融危机的同时,促进了世界经济不平衡的扩大。     

EKC-type transitions and environmental policy under pollutant uncertainty and cost irreversibility

Previous studies have suggested that some pollutant levels first increases due to the economic growth and then start decreasing, the pattern being called the “environmental Kuznets curve” (EKC). We examine EKC-type transitions of pollutant levels not with respect to economic growth but more generally in time. Assuming that each policy maker optimally executes the two switching options of regulation and unregulation for pollution, the switching dynamics of environmental policy can be described by an alternating renewal process. It is shown that the double Laplace transform of transition density of a pollutant level can be obtained by a novel application of renewal theory. The expected level of overall pollutants is then calculated numerically and found to exhibit either a Λ‐shaped or an N-shaped pattern in time. Our results present a simple explanation for the EKC-type transitions of pollutant levels within a real options framework.     

Risk, uncertainty, and option exercise

Many economic decisions can be described as an option exercise or optimal stopping problem under uncertainty. Motivated by experimental evidence such as the Ellsberg Paradox, we follow Knight (1921) and distinguish risk from uncertainty. To capture this distinction, we adopt the multiple-priors utility model. We show that the impact of ambiguity on the option exercise decision depends on the relative degrees of ambiguity about continuation payoffs and termination payoffs. Consequently, ambiguity may accelerate or delay option exercise. We apply our results to investment and exit problems, and show that the myopic NPV rule can be optimal for an agent having an extremely high degree of ambiguity aversion.     

中国十大宜居城市房地产价格泡沫度的实证研究

本文通过单位根ADF检验,对我国十大宜居城市中的九个城市（剔除桂林,数据不可得）的房地产价格泡沫进行了初步检验,结果显示除青岛外其他城市房地产价格都面临着不同程度的泡沫。然后通过建立时变风险溢价模型和三变量VAR模型,对除青岛以外的剩余城市的房地产价格泡沫进行了度量,结果显示：上海、大连、北京、广州、成都、杭州、珠海和厦门的房地产市场都存在着不同程度的泡沫,其中北京、杭州和珠海的房地产市场泡沫已经达到了30％以上,而上海、大连和厦门的房地产市场泡沫在20％以上,成都和广州的房地产市场泡沫也在10％以上。使用该方法可以度量任何一个地区、省份、市区的房地产价格泡沫度,可以为房地产商、购房人和中央及地方政府提供相应的决策依据。     

房地产税改革对公租房制度的政策支持分析

2007年以来,我国住房保障体系建设取得了突破性进展,公租房则是近期住房保障制度的重要创新。随着房地产税改革步伐的加快,新的房地产税制必将对公租房的建设和运营形成制度约束。本文在厘清公租房属性和制度要点的基础上,分析现行房地产税制对公租房建设和运营的制度约束,对最近上海和重庆的房产税试点改革进行评述,讨论房地产税改革取向并提出支持公租房制度的建议。     

旁地产市场宏观调控治“标”更应治“本”

房地产价格的过快上涨直接影响着居民住房问题的解决,房地产市场的异常火爆,也使我国经济的长期稳定发展潜藏着一定的风险隐患。本文透过近年来我国房价飞涨的表象,从更深的层面剖析了导致我国房地产业畸形发展的根源性因素,进而提出加强房地产宏观调控的政策建议：一是地方政府应进一步增强服务功能,落实好民生问题;二是国家应以培育创新创业体系作为经济增长的切入点,不断提高自主创新能力;三是进一步规范与完善资本市场,合理引导资金流向,拓宽投融资渠道;四是加大对住宅的政策性金融扶持力度,改善住房的供给结构,切实解决中低收入居民购房的资金需求。