真实盈余管理动机下R&D削减行为与创新产出——数量、质量与效率

以2007—2017年沪深A股上市公司为样本，基于零盈余、上期盈余和分析师预测盈余对真实盈余管理动机进行刻画识别，检验公司在真实盈余管理动机下削减R&D支出对创新产出的影响。研究发现，与其它动机相比，真实盈余管理动机下的R&D削减会导致未来三期更低的创新产出、创新质量及创新效率。进一步，扩大盈余管理识别范围、使用全样本进行双重差分、替换被解释变量分别检验后，结果依然稳健。     

Space Grabs: Colonizing the Vertical City

Much attention has been paid recently to land grabs in rural and urban areas of the global South, but relatively little attention has been paid to such activities in the third dimension—vertical space. Yet vertical space has also been increasingly colonized, as manifest in the transformation of mega-city skylines through the proliferating number and height of high-rises in both central cities and peri-urban developments. We investigate how floor area ratio policies, originally designed to control densification, have been reworked to facilitate densification through floor area uplift. Thus a tool originally developed to advance public welfare has been used to facilitate the profitability of real estate projects for developers and to benefit local governments. Taking DKI Jakarta as our case study, we sketch out the coevolution of this policy with urban regimes, focusing on the mid-2010s when compensation measures were formalized and made transparent. By using a particular project in Jakarta's central business district we show how the benefits of floor area uplift favor private sector developers over the local government. In a context of rapidly increasing land values, increasing demand for housing from an emergent middle class, and particularly the privatization of planning, this unevenness systematically favors the private sector.     

Catch-up inflation and nominal convergence: The balancing act for new EU entrants

The paper addresses some of the macroeconomic implications of the simultaneous pursuit of the goals of nominal and real convergence in the presence of a fast and sustained catch-up process. It is argued that when pursued simultaneously, nominal and real convergence may give rise to conflicting policy targets for the new EU members and acceding countries. The reason is that a fast catch-up process within a rigid macroeconomic framework is very likely to be accompanied by catch-up inflation, which is an equilibrium feature of this process. The paper proposes a simple accounting framework which is used to simulate the likely range of the expected catch-up inflation in the new EU members and acceding countries and discusses some of the related policy implications.     

Former Soviet Union as the World champion in cheapness

The paper assesses the relationship between income and price levels in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) republics relative to remaining countries during the period 1991–2000. The basic idea of the paper is that the price levels of FSU republics were in the 1990s remarkably lower not only vis-à-vis the non-transitional economies with income levels similar to those of the FSU republics but also vis-à-vis non-FSU transitional countries. The author finds out the cross-country relationship between income and price levels among non-transitional economies and derives from this equation the income-predicted price levels for the FSU republics both at the very beginning, in the middle and at the end of the 1990s. Based on his calculations, the author assesses the differences between the FSU republics’ income-predicted and actual price levels and compares the results with those of the non-FSU transitional countries.     

Note on ‘Loss of monetary discretion in a simple dynamic policy game’

Jensen (1994a) finds that loss of monetary discretion leads to lower welfare. However, by extending his model we show that if real base money holdings are relatively low, as is likely to be the case for modern economics, a zero-inflation rule may well be preferable to monetary discretion. If the emphasis on achieving the output and public spending targets falls, a zero-inflation rule is more likely to be preferred. The increased support for binding policy rules thus conforms with a less tolerant attitude towards inflation.     

政策对房地产价格影响分析

政策作为影响地价的重要因素对地价起着全面性、覆盖性的影响作用。近年来土地价格变化较大，增长较为迅猛，部分长三角、珠三角和京津地区的增长速度较快，为此国家出台了各项政策以调控房地产市场。通过建立1997-2006年上海市房地产价格指数的回归模型，将房地产政策量化后作为影响房地产价格的指标进行回归分析，验证了政策对房地产价格的实际影响力。     

人民币均衡汇率的实证研究

均衡汇率是汇率问题的核心。均衡和有效的汇率制度有助于一国经济实现内外部均衡，而非均衡的汇率和不合适的汇率制度可能会影响一国经济金融的稳定，甚至引发区域性的金融危机。本文用Elbadawi（1994）关于发展中国家的均衡汇率模型，对1978年至2004年人民币均衡汇率进行实证分析，并对人民币汇率的合理性进行了分析。     

影响中国国际资本流动的因素分析

本文结合中国资本流动的特点,加入证券市场价格及房地产价格水平两个变量实证分析了1982～2004年对我国国际资本流动的影响。结果表明对中国资本流动影响最显著的因素依次为利率、汇率、房地产价格指数和证券市场价格。     

UK External Imbalances and the Sterling: Are they on a Sustainable Path?

An updated version of Krugman’s 1993 MMF framework is used to consider the implications of buoyant domestic demand for the real exchange rate and debt dynamics. The updating includes a Taylor rule for monetary policy and explicit treatment of external assets and liabilities. In response to an exogenous rise in the aggregate demand, short-run appreciation of the real exchange rate is followed by a prolonged decline as external debt accumulates and net wealth deteriorates. Whether in equilibrium the real exchange rate is stronger or weaker depends crucially on a comparison of real interest rates and the growth rate. If the domestic growth rate is higher than global real interest rates, the currency may strengthen in the long run despite the deterioration of net external assets. To see whether the strength of sterling is sustainable, the analysis is briefly calibrated to UK data over the last decade. Blanchard et al. (The US current account and the dollar. CEPR DP no 4888, 2005) suggest that international liabilities to be treated as imperfect substitutes: so we check to see how this would affect our results.

Monetary Shocks and REIT Returns

We investigate the influence of unanticipated changes in US monetary policy on Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT’s). Although a number of studies have investigated the issue of interest rate changes, the effect of unanticipated changes has not previously been addressed in terms of possible effects on both REIT’s returns and volatility. The results show a strong response in both the first and second moments of REIT returns to unexpected policy rate changes. The results for the impact of the shock on both mean and volatility of returns is consistent with results from studies addressing broader equity markets. However, we find evidence both against behavioral changes in volatility coincident to US monetary policy decisions and asymmetric responses to the monetary policy shock.