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人民币实际汇率错位的经济效应实证研究 总被引:24,自引:1,他引:24
本文运用行为均衡汇率模型和协整理论,测算1984—2004年人民币实际汇率错位的季度状况,结果表明,人民币实际汇率在此期间经历了三个阶段的币值低估和两个阶段的币值高估。结合这21年间中国主要经济指标的增长率,划分阶段研究人民币实际汇率错位的经济效应,可以发现:较大幅度的实际汇率错位对涉外经济变量产生了比较明显的影响;而低幅度的实际汇率错位,不会对经济产生较大危害,经济系统本身可自动调节;另外,实际汇率错位对涉外经济变量的变动有非常好的解释作用,这反过来证明,对人民币实际汇率错位状况的测算是准确的。通过建立计量模型,从1984—2004年整体时段来研究人民币实际汇率错位的经济效应,结果表明,实际汇率错位对出口和进口都产生了显著的负面影响。 相似文献
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人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响 总被引:24,自引:0,他引:24
封思贤 《数量经济技术经济研究》2007,24(4):3-13
本文从空间和时间两个角度全面考察了人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响。结果表明,人民币汇率的变化会显著影响我国的进出口。但是,这种影响程度在1994年以后明显地出现了下降趋势。同时,人民币汇率变化对我国进出口的调整存在明显的J曲线效应,其中进口变动大致滞后于汇率变动2个季度,而出口则滞后1个季度,滞后期限均短于西方发达国家。本文分析了其中的原因并提出了相关建议。 相似文献
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Xue Wang 《中国与世界经济(英文版)》2020,28(3):90-115
This paper uses household panel data to explore the impact of mobile payments on China's household business activity. Using a difference‐in‐difference fixed effect specification, I find that mobile payment users are more likely to operate small‐scale and self‐employed informal businesses. The impact of using mobile payment primarily derives from the transition of agricultural families to business owners and the development of informal businesses. The paper illustrates an associated increase in employment and income for family members, with more pronounced effects on low‐income and rural households. It also provides prima facie evidence of the increase in fund transfers, which is important for risk sharing that informal businesses may encounter. 相似文献
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It is ubiquitous for non-real estate firms to conduct real estate business in China. Home purchase restriction (HPR) affects corporate innovation by dampening the real estate investment of non-real estate firms. The extant literature has examined the impact of HPR on corporate innovation, but it has not focused on the expectation of HPR and the endogeneity problem. Employing a dataset of 1830 listed non-real estate firms over the period 2009–2016, this research explores the expectation of HPR on corporate innovation based on the motivations for real estate investment in non-real estate firms. We demonstrate that HPR facilitates the enhancement of research and development (R&D) investment in non-real estate listed firms by hindering real estate investment, particularly for non-high-tech firms. The effects of HPR arrive at the crest in the third implementation year and remain steady thereafter. The real estate investment of non-real estate firms rebounds and the R&D investment declines along with the cancellation of HPR. Tackling the selection bias and endogeneity problems, the baseline results are also robust. Hence, HPR should serve as a long-term vehicle to improving corporate innovation, in addition to preventing housing speculation. 相似文献
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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been recognised as a major influence upon urban development within emerging economies. As the focus of production shifted toward higher skills and advanced technologies, expatriate high-skilled employees of the Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) began to play a significant role in FDI projects and recipient cities begin to experience urban development associated with residential development and community services for the settlement of these expatriate staff. This research reports on the experience of Korean investment in real estate following earlier projects in manufacturing activity in the Hanoi Capital Region. Korean investors are currently the largest FDI source in Vietnam and Hanoi has been favoured by them. The purpose of this research is to examine that the urban impact of manufacturing FDI on a recipient city is magnified by its connections with Real estate FDI (RFDI) in a way that it spurs (1) intensified real estate development, (2) the creation of new urban cores, and (3) new commuting patterns. The clustering of Korea-specific residential development and service functions is a contribution to change in Hanoi. The Korean-built housing complexes have transplanted Korean-style housing design into gated communities and the residents continue their Korean life-styles with easy access to language-specific community facilities. This research sheds light on the coalescent nature of RFDI with overall FDI via flows of MNEs and expatriate staff that can generate direct and indirect spatial impacts at project, city and regional scales. 相似文献
89.
The collapse of real estate prices has historically jeopardized banking stability and triggered systemic banking crises. This paper studies risk contagion in a banking system in real estate price shock by adopting complex network theory. Modelling the real estate-related asset as a common exposure of banks to the real estate market, we propose a model that incorporates two main risk contagion channels, i.e., the financial network and asset fire sales, and reveal how the real estate price shock is transmitted and propagated across banks. We demonstrate that banking stability is highly sensitive to the real estate price shock. Moreover, due to the particularly low liquidity of the real estate market, the asset fire-sales of real estate assets overwhelms the financial network, playing the dominant role in risk contagion. Our model can be adopted by regulators to conduct stress testing and to forge effective risk management strategies. 相似文献
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This paper investigates nonlinearities in the dynamics of real exchange rates. We use Monte Carlo simulations to establish the size properties of the Teräsvirta-Anderson test, when the dynamics of the real exchange rate is influenced by an exogenous process. In addition, we show that a modified nonlinearity test, which includes additional right-hand-side variables, performs much better than the original in both Monte Carlo exercises and in the actual data on 1431 bilateral real exchange rate series. Finally, we investigate the dynamics of the real exchange rate for both developed and developing countries using the modified test for the recent floating period. In general, the results find a greater incidence of nonlinear dynamics for developing country real exchange rates. 相似文献