论“90后”高职院校学生体育兴趣的培养

本文阐述了体育兴趣的概念及体育兴趣在体育教学中的作用,分析了90后学生的生理和心理方面的特点,探讨了培养90后高职院校学生体育兴趣的有效方法,以期充分调动90后高职院校学生上体育课的积极性,提高体育课教学质量,改善学生的综合素质,培养他们终身体育锻炼的意识。     

Proportional Odds Models with High‐Dimensional Data Structure

The proportional odds model is the most widely used model when the response has ordered categories. In the case of high‐dimensional predictor structure, the common maximum likelihood approach typically fails when all predictors are included. A boosting technique pomBoost is proposed to fit the model by implicitly selecting the influential predictors. The approach distinguishes between metric and categorical predictors. In the case of categorical predictors, where each predictor relates to a set of parameters, the objective is to select simultaneously all the associated parameters. In addition, the approach distinguishes between nominal and ordinal predictors. In the case of ordinal predictors, the proposed technique uses the ordering of the ordinal predictors by penalizing the difference between the parameters of adjacent categories. The technique has also a provision to consider some mandatory predictors (if any) that must be part of the final sparse model. The performance of the proposed boosting algorithm is evaluated in a simulation study and applications with respect to mean squared error and prediction error. Hit rates and false alarm rates are used to judge the performance of pomBoost for selection of the relevant predictors.     

固定汇率体系下的货币政策:对未来中国货币政策的探讨

Using a macro dynamic model that is specified for the current Chinese economy, we investigate the monetary policy in China under the assumption that the capital market was “open” under WTO frame-work while the exchange rate was fixed. Our purpose here is to find whether it is possible for China in this case to keep the effective monetary policy for stabilizing the domestic economy. For this, we suggest some institutional arrangements (or restrictions). Given these institutional restrictions, we find that not only the monetary policy can still be effective but also the fixed exchange regime will strengthen the macroeconomic stability shared by both the domestic economy and the economy of its trade partners. The dynamic analysis of the model further shows that the under-valued RMB is necessary for the target exchange rate to be sustainable. Finally, due to the import pattern of the current Chinese economy, RMB appreciation will not help to resolve the trade deficit problem in the Western economy with respect to China.      

Planning Discourse versus Land Discourse: The 2009–12 Reforms in Land‐Use Planning Policy and Land Policy in Israel

Land policy and land‐use planning policy are two types of public policy pertaining to space. In general, land‐use planning policy deals with land‐use allocation and property rights, whereas land policy defines the land regime of a society. These differences have shaped a unique discourse for each of these policy types. The purpose of this article is to examine the differences and similarities between the land discourse and the planning discourse by analyzing two public campaigns conducted in Israel against two proposed reforms: the 2009 reform of the Israel Land Administration and the 2010–12 reform of the Planning and Building Law. The findings reveal substantive differences between the two campaigns, manifested in the nature of the leading players, the types of public activities they chose, and most notably in the discourses and the hierarchy of considerations they addressed. The findings raise profound questions regarding universal trends in spatial policy reforms; their influence on the activities of public coalitions and the discourses they adopted; possible future effects of these trends on the differences between the land discourse and the planning discourse; and the impact of these trends on the ability of groups and individuals elsewhere to influence spatial policies (such as planning and land policies).     

Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model

Ricardian dynamic general equilibrium analyses show that under free trade arrangements a low income country with lower wage cost and large endowment of labour has comparative advantage in trade. Efficiency gains from this enhance economic growth and welfare of households simultaneously in both low income and advanced economies. Theoretical predictions are empirically validated here with structural VAR analysis based on quarterly data over the time period 1995:1 to 2009:1 on China's relative wage cost, interest rate differential, real effective exchange rate (REER), relative GDP and the US current account balance. It is shown how the relative prices of labour, capital and the currency affect the economic activity in China and current account balance in the US. With free capital inflows and outflows and restrictions on labour mobility, comparative advantage of China and the trade deficit of the US will both be minimised if China allows real appreciation of the Yuan and complete adjustment in prices. Higher production cost and prices in China could reduce welfare of Chinese households and the trade imbalance of the US, while higher relative GDP of China lowers the current account balance for the US.     

谈谈当前我省消灭无标生产工作的情况和问题

总结甘肃省开展消灭无标生产工作带来的变化,分析提出工作中存在的新情况、新问题及其对策。     

人民币汇率变动与中国的贸易收支——基于汇率传递视角的实证研究

文章从汇率传递视角探讨了人民币名义有效汇率与贸易收支的关系。结论表明:首先,人民币汇率贬值和升值对贸易收支的影响存在非对称性,人民币升值对初级产品贸易收支、工业制成品贸易收支以及贸易总收支几乎没有影响;人民币贬值对工业制成品贸易收支和贸易总收支均存在显著性的影响,但对初级产品贸易收支没有影响。其次,人民币汇率变动对初级产品的净出口基本没有影响,其主要原因在于中国对金属矿砂、煤、焦炭、石油等主要初级产品的刚性需求以及中国在国际市场上对稀缺资源性产品定价权的缺失与不足。再次,人民币贬值不仅不能增加工业制成品净出口,反而恶化了工业制成品的贸易收支,究其原因,在于占较大比重的机械及运输设备类产品的进出口需求弹性较小。最后,本文在以上结论研究基础之上得到了许多有益启示。     

New Political Economy

Alberto Alesina and Nouriel Roubini with Gerald D. Cohen, Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy
Avinash K. Dixit, The Making of Economic Policy: A Transaction-Cost Politics Perspective.
Gordon Pepper, Inside Thatcher's Monetarist Revolution     

Vacancy posting, job separation and unemployment fluctuations

What is the relative importance of hiring and separation in driving unemployment fluctuations? This paper presents a framework to decompose the moments of unemployment and study the respective contributions of vacancy posting, a measure of firms’ hiring efforts, and separation. Separation accounts for about 40% of unemployment's variance, compared to 60% for vacancy posting, and contributes to about 60% of unemployment steepness asymmetry, the fact that unemployment increases faster than it decreases. Further, while vacancy posting is, on average, the most important contributor of unemployment fluctuations, the opposite is true around business cycle turning points, when separation is responsible for most of unemployment movements.     

经济全球化趋势下我国文化产业安全的研究

本文立足于国家文化产业安全这一角度,主要研究我国经济开放对国家文化安全的影响及我国文化产业结构问题,确定了以文化产业国际竞争力和对外依存度为主的文化安全模型体系,选取了世界市场份额等七项指标来建立安全模型体系。总体研究表明,中国文化产业从2002年起有了巨大的发展,国际竞争力持续增强,对外依存度虽然也有所上升但是不显著,增速缓慢有限,文化产业结构相对合理,中国文化产业整体朝安全的方向发展。