旅游地游客量预测模型新方法初探——以贵州省为例

本文通过引入旅游地游客量变化的“速度”和“加速度”两个旅游学参量,构建了基于不同参量状态下的旅游地游客量量测公式;这些公式与不同的回归方程相对应,给回归方程式中的常数以明确的旅游学意义。该模型以旅游地生命周期理论为指导,并与其数学表达式——kgistic曲线模型进行对比研究,尝试探寻旅游地游客量预测模型新方法。文后以贵州省国内游客量为例,进行了实证研究,其结果与实际符合得较好。     

Reseller adoption of manufacturers' e-business tools: The impact of social enforcement, technology-relationship fit and the mediating role of reseller benefits

Manufacturer-reseller relationships are increasingly becoming technology-infused as distribution managers are employing e-business tools to streamline existing channels. This research examines the role of social enforcement, relationship-technology fit and the perceived reseller benefits in reseller adoption of manufacturers' e-business tools. The results of the empirical test involving a sample of 224 resellers suggest that social enforcement and technology-relationship factors impact reseller e-business adoption, while reseller benefits play a mediating role. Implications of these findings for researchers and managers are discussed.     

科技园区企业科技投入与产出绩效关系的实证分析——以西安高新区为例

首先对国内外关于企业研发投入与产出绩效的最新成果进行了评述,然后以西安高新区内2 900家企业2007年研发投入与产出情况的数据为基础,对区内企业研发投入与产出绩效进行相关关系、偏相关关系以及回归分析。结果表明,区内企业研发投入与产出绩效之间存在明显的正相关关系,但企业的国有制性质和市场机制的不完善也对企业产出绩效产生了一些不利影响。最后,总结并提出了提高科技园区产出绩效的对策。     

跨国公司在我国研发投资的区位决定因素研究

基于我国数据运用逐步回归法进行分析,探寻影响跨国公司在我国加大研发投资力度的决定因素:经济发展水平、市场规模潜力、人力资源可得性、劳动力成本优势与知识产权保护力度等均为影响研发投资的决定因素。我国作为投资东道国应从以上方面优化投资环境,努力提高吸引研发投资的力度和效率,并为其它发展中国家东道国提供借鉴。     

Consistent estimation of a general nonparametric regression function in time series

We propose an estimator of the conditional distribution of X_t|X_t−1,X_t−2,…, and the corresponding regression function , where the conditioning set is of infinite order. We establish consistency of our estimator under stationarity and ergodicity conditions plus a mild smoothness condition.     

Take it or leave it: Using regulatory fit theory to understand reward redemption in channel reward programs

Channel Reward Programs (CRPs) facilitate relationship management within reseller networks in distribution channels, yet a persistent problem is that rewards are not seen as valuable, which can reduce program investment. By applying Regulatory Fit theory, to understand how to sustain goal orientation (promotion or prevention) and stimulate task engagement through a match with the manner of goal pursuit, this study demonstrates that the presentation style suppliers adopt influences resellers' perceptions of reward value and their rate of point redemption with respect to CRPs. Two field studies demonstrate the mechanisms driving this effect. First, fit effects result from the interaction between reward type and presentation format (i.e., verbal vs. numerical) and affect perceived reward values and investment decisions. Second, cognitive engagement and “feeling right” about reward redemption mediate the effects of fit on investment opportunity evaluations. In turn, the findings demonstrate that CRP efficacy can be enhanced by stimulating regulatory orientations that match the presentation formats of the reward and that the dual affective–cognitive processes affect probabilistic judgments of rewards. This additional mechanism can further stimulate resellers' engagement with and investment in CRPs within complex decision-making contexts.     

Regulatory fit effects of gender and marketing message content

Many US adults do not get enough daily physical activity. To change behavior, governments and other agencies design marketing messages encouraging more physical activity. A lab experiment draws on Regulatory Focus Theory to examine health communication's persuasive effects on physical activity. This study identifies gender differences in chronic regulatory focus and shows that congruence between message regulatory focus and the message recipient's gender is effective, particularly for males. Results also show that emotions mediate regulatory fit effects on intentions. Further, chronic regulatory focus mediates these effects on emotions. Results inform implications for theory as well as for practitioners who design health-marketing messages.     

Individual and contextual influences on the affective commitment of retail salespeople

Abstract

Salesperson characteristics as well as managerial approaches have been found to play an important role in the development of positive attitudes by salespersons towards an organisation. This study integrates these two research areas to investigate the personal and contextual antecedents of affective organisational commitment of retail salespeople. Fit theory and the literature on person–situation interaction provide the theoretical bases for explaining how salesperson selling skills, job liking, and empowerment individually and jointly influence affective commitment. A multilevel modelling approach is used to analyse data from 105 sales managers and 419 salespeople. Findings reveal that salespersons' affective commitment is influenced by their selling skills, degree of job liking, tenure, and empowerment. The results also indicate that the impact of selling skills on affective commitment is higher when empowerment is high. Based on the study's findings, implications for managing salespeople as well as limitations and suggestions for future research are offered.     

The customer consequences of returns in online retailing: An empirical analysis

Pressure continues to build on the operations management function to facilitate system and firm level benefits. In the online marketplace, one area of growing interest is that of product returns. Though commonly viewed as a cost center from an operations perspective, operations’ actions have the potential to strongly influence future customer buying behavior in several ways. Using an archival database of actual purchase and returns history provided by a moderately sized online retailer, this study examines the relationship between a customer's experience of product returns, and subsequent shopping behavior. Employing transaction cost, consumer risk, and procedural justice theories, we demonstrate that the returns management process, rather than being regarded as an afterthought to the production and deployment of goods, can significantly and positively influence repurchase behavior. Additionally, we provide evidence that certain customers should be considered for prioritization in the returns process. We suggest ways through which operations managers can take care in discharging their responsibilities in this area – to make returns processing more than simply a “necessary cost of doing business” rather, using it to their advantage in engendering repeat and increased purchase behavior.     

我国城镇正规就业与非正规就业工资差异的实证研究——基于分位数回归与分解的发现

本文利用2009年CHNS数据对我国城镇正规就业与非正规就业的工资差异进行实证研究,分位数回归与分解的结果表明:正规就业与非正规就业的教育回报率的差异,随工资分布由低端到高端呈现先升后降趋势,经验—工资线在正规就业与非正规就业明显不同,前者为单调递增的线性关系,后者为倒"U"形曲线关系;正规就业与非正规就业的工资差异主要是由中低端的工资差异引起的;在工资分布中低端和歧视等非市场因素是工资差异的主要原因,而在工资分布高端,工资差异主要来自于教育和经验等个人禀赋差异。