Quantifying and characterising aviation accident risk factors

This paper compares the exposure of normal flights to a number of meteorological factors that also exist for flights resulting in accidents. The factors examined include visibility, ceiling height, temperature, crosswind, tailwind and instrument or visual meteorological conditions. Differences in exposure to these factors are examined and a measure of accident propensity related to different levels of risk exposure is quantified based on relative accident involvement ratios. Four categories of aircraft accidents relevant to the assessment of airport safety areas are examined.     

Nominal rigidities, skewness and inflation regimes

The menu-costs model developed by Ball and Mankiw (BM) [Ball, L., Mankiw, N.G., 1994. Asymmetric price adjustment and economic fluctuations. Economic Journal 104 (423), 247–261; Ball, L., Mankiw, N.G., 1995. Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate supply shocks. Quarterly Journal of Economics 110 (1), 161–193] predicts that inflation is positively related to the skewness of price changes distribution. We test this prediction in different inflationary contexts: Spain (1975–2002) and Argentina (1960–1989). We find a positive inflation–skewness relationship in both countries at low inflation, even though the mean annual inflation rates were very different: 2.2% for Spain and 23% for Argentina. Therefore, the threshold of low inflation under which the menu-costs model is suitable is determined endogenously, and it depends on the inflationary experience of each economy. In the higher inflation periods skewness is not significant. Finally, our results suggest that the menu-costs model is not suitable beyond certain threshold of inflation.     

农村税费制度改革对乡镇财政收支的影响及对策研究

自2000年以来的农村税费制度改革,在减轻农民负担方面取得了重大成就,达到了其最初的目的。但农民负担减轻的同时就意味着乡镇财务收入的减少,这必将对乡镇的财务收支产生影响。本文以乡镇的财政为切入点,主要论述了中国农村税费制度改革对乡镇级别财政收入和支出的影响,通过乡镇收入和支出分开论述,改革前后对比,阐明了中国农村税费制度改革这一历史性变革对乡镇级别财务收支的影响,以期引起人们的注意。最后,就农村税费制度改革对乡村财务收支产生的不利影响,提出了几点不成熟的看法,以保证中国农村税费制度改革顺利进行。     

Human capital aggregation and relative wages across countries

Most of the growth accounting literature relies on an aggregate production function to determine the contribution of factors of production relative to that of total factor productivity (TFP) in explaining differences in incomes across countries. I show that the importance of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences depends crucially on how skilled and unskilled labor are aggregated. Further, cross-country evidence on the relationship between relative wages and relative endowments of skilled and unskilled labor suggests that the two types of labor should not be aggregated into a single factor of production. Growth accounting decomposition using a commonly used nested-CES aggregate production function that allows skilled and unskilled labor to be used as separate factors of production results in a significantly greater role for TFP in accounting for income differences across countries than that found by past studies. The finding that different aggregate production functions lead to significantly different conclusions about the role of TFP in accounting for cross-country income differences calls for a more general approach to understanding such differences.     

团队中成员相对地位与组织公民行为关系研究

以88个工作团队587名员工为研究对象,考察了团队中相对地位对员工组织公民行为的影响。结果表明,较高的相对地位（RLMX）对员工组织公民行为具有显著正向影响,团队关系差异程度（DLMX）大会强化RLMX对组织公民行为的正向影响;员工社会比较倾向（SCO）强,会削弱RLMX对组织公民行为的积极影响,且两者呈负相关关系。另外,不管是DLMX的正向调节还是SCO的负向调节,交互效应对组织指向组织公民行为的影响都大于对个人指向组织公民行为的影响。     

风险度量的幻觉与基于模型的银行资本监管方法

《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》将新资本协议的缺陷,看成是可以通过提高资本充足标准来改进的缺陷,没有系统地分析现有银行监管模式中所存在的问题。文章分析了风险度量模型所存在的一些内在缺陷,并指出,巴塞尔银行监管模式的基本假设——金融风险可以通过先进模型来准确度量,其实只是一种幻觉。文章同时指出,如果模型不能准确地度量风险,在现有的基于模型的银行监管模式下,更高的资本充足要求,只会激起银行更大的监管套利动机;更为重要的是,这种银行监管模式容易引发内生性风险,从而危及整个系统的稳健性。因此,在提高核心资本标准的同时,巴塞尔委员会应考虑如何更加科学地对银行实施资本充足监管。     

EXPLORING THE IMPORTANCE OF EXCESS FEMALE MORTALITY AND DISCRIMINATION IN “NATALITY” IN EXPLAINING THE “LOWNESS” OF THE SEX RATIO IN INDIA

The beginning of the present century has been marked by a shift in attention from “excess” female mortality to discrimination in natality in explaining the “lowness” of the sex ratio or proportion of women in India's population. Such a shift in focus seemingly suggests that discrimination in intra‐family allocation of resources has reduced substantially in India. In this context, an attempt has been made to decompose the observed lowness of the sex ratio in India vis‐à‐vis that of the stable population into that attributable to: (1) age structure difference, (2) excess female mortality, and (3) abnormalities in sex ratios at birth in India. Estimated contributions by each factor suggest that, as late as 2001, excess female mortality or the lowness of the relative survival advantage of women is the single most important determinant of “missing” women in India. The results also point to the importance of age structure difference, which accounts for a little more than 17% of the lowness of the sex ratio in India in 2001.     

Challenges for the new EU member states on the road to the Eurozone

This paper analyses the process of nominal and real convergence in the new Member States of the European Union (NMS). The importance of nominal and real convergence is underlined in connection with a successful catching-up. The NMS economies experienced robust economic growth in recent years, which had a positive impact on the convergence process. Although this favourable development of real convergence is accompanied by a simultaneous price (nominal) convergence, the comparative price level is still biased towards lower level in comparison with the per capita income. The regression analysis shows interdependence between the comparative price and the income per capita level. This basis enables to evaluate potential benefits and risks connected with joining the euro. The benefits connected with elimination of exchange rate risks and reduction of transaction costs can be compared with the disadvantages associated with the loss of an independent monetary policy and an adjusting exchange rate mechanism. Attention is paid to a potential impact on nominal and real convergence of the observed countries. There are some risks for these countries connected with the common monetary policy, which is adjusted more to the conditions of stabilized advanced economies, forming the core of the Eurozone. These risks can be overcome on the basis of a fast labour productivity growth, accompanied by an adequate policy, ensuring the macroeconomic stability. The rapid productivity growth is raising the relative price level. The Maastricht dilemma, i.e. the fulfilment of two objectives during the stay in ERM II (the price stability and the exchange rate volatility) under on-going nominal convergence enforces an appropriate monetary and fiscal policy. However, such strict policies may slow down the economic growth. Another possible measure for keeping the price stability is a relaxation of the fluctuation band (its full exploitation to the upper and bottom limits), or a change of the central parity (revaluation).

我国地区科技投入对经济增长贡献及其影响因素——基于DEA与Tobit方法

本文利用数据包络方法(DEA)对我国31个地区2005年科技投入技术效率、技术与规模效率进行总体评价,并利用Tobit回归模型对影响科技投入的无效率因素予以识别。研究表明,我国地区科技投入在效率上存在显著差异,并且不少地区效率低下;科技投入对经济增长贡献总体偏低;技术与规模效率共同有效的地区较少;科技人员和科技经费相对于投入规模而言,其产出效率不高;R&D经费、技术市场成交合同金额是影响科技投入无效率的重要因素。     

The economic effects of improving investor rights in Portugal

The Portuguese economy has performed remarkably well since joining the EU in 1986. Output per worker grew at an annual rate of 2.25%. The relative price of investment has declined. Real investment has increased compared to output, in part fuelled by an increase in capital inflows. At the same time, resource allocation seems to have improved as well: firm-level data shows a significant decline in the dispersion of labor productivity and size across firms. This paper argues that improvements in outside investor rights that have taken place since Portugal joined the EU is a prime candidate to explain this set of facts.