供应链鲁棒性影响因素及度量研究

鉴于当今世界上的可以影响供应链功能的条件的剧烈变化,提高供应链的鲁棒性迫在眉睫。本文致力于给出供应链鲁棒性的具体定义和影响因素,将供应链鲁棒性具体化,以概率形式进行表达,给出在发生点失和链断条件下供应链鲁棒性的变化,并且对供应链的鲁棒性进行度量。     

中国加工贸易的工资分配效应研究

国际外包的蓬勃发展:一方面,改变了国际贸易格局;另一方面,催生新的贸易方式—中间产品贸易,这种新型的贸易方式会影响一国不同类型劳动者的工资收入。本文以中国加工贸易作为中间产品贸易的衡量,选取1996～2008年数据作为样本进行时间序列回归,结果表明,加工贸易规模与制造业技能工人的相对工资成反方向变动。最后本文结合实证分析结果认为:我国应该积极参与中间产品贸易,扩大加工贸易规模,以增强其对缓解就业、缩小工资差距的作用。     

The effect of relative performance feedback on individual performance in team settings under group-based incentives*

This study reports the results of an experiment that analyses the behavioural effect of relative performance feedback (RPF) on individual performance when compensation is based on team performance. Specifically, it investigates whether RPF affects individual performance differently when the comparison focuses on other members of that individual’s team (within-group RPF) or on other teams (between-group RPF). We predict a negative effect of within-group RPF on individual performance. We also predict that between-group RPF moderates that negative effect, since it encourages individuals to focus on group goals rather than individual goals. Consistent with our predictions, results show that the negative effect of within-group RPF on individual performance is mitigated by between-group RPF. Our results can help accountants to better understand how the effects of relative performance feedback differ according to the predominant comparison target.     

Hypothesis testing and parameter estimation based onM-statistics ink samples with unequal variances

Summary Ink samples with unequal variances,M-tests for homogeneity ofk location parameters are proposed. The asymptoticχ ²-distributions of the test statistics and the robustness of the tests are investigated. NextM-estimators (ME’s) of parameters are discussed. Furthermore positive-part shrinkage versions (PSME’s) of theM-estimators for the location parameters are considered along with modified James-Stein estimation rule. In asymptotic distributional risks based on a special feasible loss, it is shown that the PSME’s dominate the ME’s, and preliminary test and shrinkageM-versions fork≧4.     

ON THE CONSISTENCY OF REGRESSION‐BASED MONTE CARLO METHODS FOR PRICING BERMUDAN OPTIONS IN CASE OF ESTIMATED FINANCIAL MODELS

In many applications of regression‐based Monte Carlo methods for pricing, American options in discrete time parameters of the underlying financial model have to be estimated from observed data. In this paper suitably defined nonparametric regression‐based Monte Carlo methods are applied to paths of financial models where the parameters converge toward true values of the parameters. For various Black–Scholes, GARCH, and Levy models it is shown that in this case the price estimated from the approximate model converges to the true price.     

Direct density estimation as an ill-posed inverse estimation problem

A possible definition of ill-posedness in statistical estimation is the lack of qualitative robustness. In this sense direct density estimation shares ill-posedness with the more obviously ill-posed indirect density estimation models, of which it is a special case. A general construction pattern for estimators is proposed, based on suitable preconditioning, that works for both direct and indirect density estimation. Special emphasis is on its application to the direct case, where in general it yields delta-sequence estimators. More specifically both kernel and series type estimators are included depending on the choice of preconditioning operator. In particular sinc and other flattop kernel estimators emerge in a natural way.     

资本结构影响因素稳健性检验

关于资本结构影响因素的理论和实证研究存在很多相互矛盾的结论,人们通常把这个问题归咎于外部因素的影响,而没有怀疑资本结构理论自身的稳健性;本研究发现相互矛盾的研究结果并非由外部因素引起,而是由于资本结构理论本身缺乏较强的稳健性。因此,传统的资本结构理论并不适用于指导我国企业的融资实践,应该从企业外部,而不是过去理论强调的“从企业内部”去寻找影响资本结构的因素。     

供应链竞争力评价指标体系研究

供应链竞争力是指实施供应链管理的核心企业整合其合作伙伴（供应商、分销商和零售商）的组织结构和业务流程,通过对顾客多变的需求作出比竞争对手更快速、更有效的反应来获取市场竞争优势的能力。通过对影响供应链竞争力的关键因素进行分析,提出了竞争力指标体系的设计原则并建立了供应链竞争力评价指标体系,给出了各指标的含义及计算方法。     

中国地区间研发资源错配测算与影响因素分析

随着中国的研发投入总量进入世界第一梯队,研发投入(资源)的配置状况成为决定研发产出效率的关键因素之一。本文基于一个包含研发资源价格扭曲的多部门竞争均衡模型,以2001—2016年各省份规模以上工业企业数据为样本,对中国地区间研发资源错配情况及其影响因素进行全面考察。研究发现:(1)各省份之间的研发劳动错配高于研发资本错配,多数省份倾向于过度配置研发资源,省份之间研发资源配置效率总体上呈逐步改善趋势,纠正错配可以使研发产出提升约16%;(2)东部各省份研发资源配置相对较为合理,但研发劳动配置略有不足,中部、西部和东北各省均存在不同程度的研发资源过度配置现象,东部和西部的研发资源配置效率一直在改善,东北和中部则没有表现出持续的改进态势;(3)市场发育程度、偏向性政策扶持、地区创新环境是研发资源错配的主要影响因素,在研发资源过度配置地区,这些因素的作用更为显著。本文的启示是,在当前全面实施创新驱动发展战略的大背景下,政府相关部门在积极引导全社会加大研发投入力度的同时,还应以市场为导向,进一步优化不同地区间的研发资源配置,实现研发效率的提升和经济的高质量发展。