On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.     

Forecasting of electricity costs based on an enhanced gray-based learning model: A case study of renewable energy in Taiwan

This work presents a novel gray-based cost efficiency (GCE) model that integrates the gray forecasting model into a two-factor cost efficiency curve model for renewable energy (RE) technologies and identifies the optimal forecasting model for power generation cost of RE technologies. The analytical framework of proposed GCE model improves short-term prediction of power generation cost, and can be applied during the early developmental stages for RE technologies. Empirical analysis is based on wind power data for Taiwan. Time lag of knowledge stock was simulated to represent the actual relationship between R&D expenditures and cost reductions in power generation by knowledge stock. Analytical results demonstrate the GCE model is a useful tool to quantify the influences of cost reductions in power generation. The implications of analytical results are that institutional policy instruments play an important role in RE technologies achieving cost reductions and market adoption. The proposed GCE model can be applied to all high-technology cases, and particularly to RE technologies. The study concludes by outlining the limitations of the proposed GCE model and directions for further research.     

中国生物质能发电的费用分摊机制

研究中国生物质能发电费用分摊机制,对于促进可再生能源产业乃至低碳能源产业发展具有重大政策指导意义。本文将现有的生物质能发电费用分摊机制分为费用来源、费用支付和配额交易三个环节分别进行解读,并对我国自2006年以来的六个生物质能发电补贴方案的执行情况进行了系统整理,发现当前的费用分摊机制已经无法满足生物质能发电产业发展的需要。同时,在对生物质能发电费用分摊机制的三个环节的研究中,发现现行的生物质能发电费用分摊机制存在费用来源太少、支付机制不合理、配额交易机制不清晰等问题。以上问题有违《可再生能源法》中规定的有利于促进可再生能源发电利用和经济合理原则。本文针对这些问题提出了相应的对策建议:拓宽征收电价附加资金的渠道,明确电价附加收入的调配方式,规范配额证的交易秩序。     

菜籽油生物柴油技术经济评价——基于全生命周期评价方法

采用全生命周期评价方法,对菜籽油制生物柴油的二氧化碳排放量和经济性进行了评估,旨在说明用菜籽油生产生物柴油对环境的影响及其经济价值。结果表明:在用菜籽油生产生物柴油的全生命周期过程中,排放入大气中的二氧化碳量远低于从大气中吸收的二氧化碳量,油菜籽制生物柴油是一种环境友好的燃料;就经济性而言,菜籽油制生物柴油的生产成本较高,每吨约高出0#柴油3178.2元,生物柴油的商业化应用尚需等待原料成本的降低。     

福建省生物质能源政策永续发展模型建构与评价

结合生物质能源政策永续发展的目标,构建了一个由四个层次指标构成的生物质能源政策永续发展评价指标体系,以此反映生物质能源政策永续发展的本质特征、内在规律和演变趋势。福建省生物质能源政策永续发展评价结果显示:福建省生物质能源政策的整体绩效水平尚处于永续发展的起步阶段,政府在生物质能产业有效规制与激励方面应加强能源市场机制建设,努力发展绿色能源消费,这也是最优先推动的永续能源策略之一。此外,推动生物质能的教育宣传与科技研发、加大政府公共研发、强化公众参与、提高人力资本素质是未来的努力方向。     

能源可持续发展能力评价——以黑龙江省为例

构建了能源可持续发展能力评价指标体系,运用层次分析法并结合专家打分确定指标权重。利用2002—2008年黑龙江省的相关数据计算评价指标分值,进而得出黑龙江省能源可持续发展度评价值,并从能源资源开发利用、社会发展、经济发展和环境保护这4个层面探究了黑龙江省能源可持续发展态势的形成原因。     

低碳物流探析

低碳物流是物流产业在低碳经济背景下发展的新阶段,其与低碳经济的发展理念保持一致。中国物流产业存在低碳意识薄弱、装备和技术水平落后、信息化水平低、粗放经营等问题。建立低碳物流,应积极引进或开发低碳物流技术,建立低碳物流信息系统,推行共同配送、第三方物流和逆向物流的运作体系,同时还应有政府在金融、税收政策和法律法规方面的支持。     

On the Strategies to Develop Low Carbon Transport in New Circumstances

本文对低碳经济的内涵、我国实施的节能减排与低碳经济的关系、交通运输领域发展低碳经济的必要性等进行基础性的梳理和分析,对低碳交通的概念和实现途径进行尝试性的概括,同时提出我国低碳交通的发展思想以及主要发展重点     

FDI与东道国企业的能源效率——以江苏高新技术企业为例

FDI在促进东道国经济规模扩张的同时,也会对企业能源使用效率产生一定的影响。本文利用江苏省1988家高新技术企业样本数据,试图揭示FDI与企业能源效率的关系。研究结果显示,虽然FDI对企业能源效率有正向影响,但来自不同国别（地区）FDI的促进作用存在明显差异,非港澳台地区FDI较之港澳台地区FDI对企业能源效率的提升作用更为显著,这可能与不同来源地跨国公司所有权优势的差异以及FDI在中国大陆投资的不同动机有关。同时,本文还发现,研发创新、人力资本以及国有资本份额也对能源效率产生比较显著的影响,而产业集聚因素对能源效率影响不明显。     

低碳经济背景下我国农村生物质能产业发展对策研究

当今低碳背景下研究生物质能产业的发展问题是发展低碳经济的必然要求,也是缓解当前能源压力和减少环境污染的客观要求。研究生物质能产业的现状及存在的问题,制定发展生物质能产业的对策和措施。有助于国家制定合理的生物质能产业政策,充分发挥生物质能产业在国民经济发展中的重要作用。