研究生网络思想政治教育实效性的制约因素研究

研究生网络思想政治教育是一项庞杂的系统工程,追求实效性是这项系统工程的基本理念和本质要求。文章从理念、环境、技术、内容、方法、投资、制度、素质8个方面探究研究生网络思想政治教育实效性的制约因素,对于增强研究生网络思想政治教育的针对性,提升其工作的实效性,以及实现其价值目标,具有重大的理论价值和现实意义。     

用科学发展观的理论推进农场的改革发展

正确落实和实践科学发展观,必须坚持理论和实际相结合。如何运用科学发展的理论,进一步转换国有企业经营机制,是推进农场改革发展关键,也是加快农场跨越性发展的重要步伐。     

保障性住房大规模集中建设背景下房地产企业对策研究

文章基于全国大规模集中建设保障性住房的大背景,介绍了现有房地产企业参与保障性住房建设的情况,分析了房地产企业参与保障性住房建设面临5个方面的机遇和3个方面的风险,并提出了对策和建议。     

政府信息资源共享与开发利用系统工程中的高校图书馆角色

高校图书馆参与政府信息资源共享与开发利用工作将产生多赢的效果。高校图书馆可以接受政府的委托参与政府信息社会化的服务,可以为用户提供信息资源的增值服务、开展科技查新、对科研课题进行定题跟踪服务、加强高校图书馆读者（用户）的信息培训等服务。     

Backcasting for sustainability: Introduction to the special issue

In this introductory paper we introduce the special issue on “Backcasting for Sustainability”. We present briefly a historical background, and position backcasting in the wider context of future studies, in which it can be related to “normative forecasting” and normative scenarios. We reflect on the diversity and variety of backcasting studies and experiments, as presented in the ten papers for this special issue. After summarizing the papers we formulate a future research agenda.     

Privatization, water access and affordability: Evidence from Malaysian household expenditure data

The aim of this paper is to examine empirically the impact of privatization on water access and affordability in Malaysia using household expenditure data. The development of water sector in Malaysia in terms of coverage has been fairly uneven. Some states have privatized their water supply sector while others have not. The overall finding of this study is that the impact of privatization on access and affordability in the Malaysian water supply sector is ambiguous. Privatization does not seem to have improved access to treated water from network in Malaysia. A likely explanation of this is the role played by the government in the sector in terms of tariff regulation and universal service provision. Furthermore, privatization does not seem to have adversely affected affordability in the sector. In addition to political intervention in tariff regulation, this could be due to the government maintaining a significant stake in privatized water companies.     

Access to credit and informality among micro and small enterprises in Ethiopia

This paper examines the determinants of Micro and Small and Enterprises (MSEs) access to credit in Ethiopia using detailed firm‐level data collected in 2003. Its basic purpose is to identify the various attributes of a firm that determine its access to credit with an emphasis on the role of firm formality. We find that informal firms are more credit constrained compared to formal firms. A firm’s location, membership of a business association and maintaining an accounting record are found to be important determinants of access to credit. Further, we find firms whose owners have vocational training are more credit constrained than those who are not, as are firms that are exclusively male owned. There is no systematic relation between access to credit and a firm’s age, size and the sector in which it operates. The paper concludes with possible policy interventions designed to improve access to credit for MSEs in Ethiopia.     

Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles

We introduce the results of a non-parametric estimate of the US wage-Phillips Curve into a simplified version of the model of the wage-price spiral by Flaschel and Krolzig (2008). Making use of Okun’s law, the non-linearity in the wage inflation-employment relation translates into a non-linearity in the so-called ‘distributive curve’ of the economy. Exploiting the observed non-linearity in extending an otherwise standard demand-distribution model (Taylor 2004 Taylor, Lance. 2004. Reconstructing macroeconomics. structuralist proposals and critique of the mainstream, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.  [Google Scholar]), we provide a dynamical analysis both in wage-led and profit-led effective demand regimes. In a profit-led scenario, shown to be the empirically relevant case for the US economy, there are two stable equilibria of Goodwin (1967 Goodwin, R.M. 1967. “A growth cycle”. In Socialism, capitalism and economic growth, Edited by: Feinstein, C.H. Cambridge, , UK: Cambridge University Press.  [Google Scholar]) growth cycle type, identified as a stable depression and a stable boom, and a saddle-path stable equilibrium in between them. Both stable steady states are surrounded by trajectories that cycle counterclockwise around their basins of attraction. The obtained type of growth fluctuations can be verified by a long phase cycle estimation for the US economy using a method developed by Kauermann, Teuber and Flaschel (2008 Kauermann, G., Teuber, T. and Flaschel, P. 2008. “Estimating loops and cycles using penalized splines”. Bielefeld: CEM working paper.  [Google Scholar]).     

"Quicker and sicker" under Medicare's prospective payment system for hospitals: new evidence on an old issue from a national longitudinal survey

Medicare's prospective payment system for hospitals (PPS), introduced in the USA in 1983, replaced cost reimbursement with a system of fixed rates which created incentives for hospitals to control costs. Previous studies found that elderly patients were discharged from hospital "quicker and sicker" under PPS and concluded that families were coping at home. We analyse a national longitudinal survey, the first National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and its Epidemiologic Followup Study, which includes data on more outcomes over a longer period than earlier studies. We find that the rate of admission to nursing homes from the community in the first weeks after a hospital discharge more than tripled under PPS, suggesting that families were not always able to cope. As another response to sicker patients, discharges directly to nursing homes from hospitals, which jumped initially under PPS, may have risen further when payment rates were tightened in the early 1990s. Hospital readmissions fell after the first few years. Our findings are strengthened by the fact that we control for patients' health using health information collected independently of hospital admission.     

Potential ecological and economic impacts of sea lice from farmed salmon on wild salmon fisheries

This paper examines the possible ecological and economic effects of sea lice from salmon farms on wild salmon populations and fisheries. A bioeconomic model is developed incorporating an age-structured population dynamics model of wild pink and chum salmon with mortality caused by farm-derived sea lice. Our model incorporates capture fisheries under two management policy scenarios. Results suggest that the ecological and economic effects are minor when the sea lice induced mortality rate is below 20%, while they can be severe if the mortality is greater than 30%. Sea lice have greater ecological and economic impacts on pink salmon than on chum salmon. The impact of farm lice epizootics on wild salmon is greater under a fixed exploitation rate than under a target escapement policy. As a result, a precautionary principle should be adopted, and appropriate management schemes and policy strategies should be developed to minimize these effects.