我国农村居民消费水平预测的实证研究

本文介绍了自回归移动平均模型即ARIMA(p,d,q)模型的基本原理、构建及其应用方法。文章广泛搜集从1952年到2011年以来我国农村居民消费水平的相关数据,运用统计学和计量经济学原理,从时间序列的定义出发,结合统计软件E-views运用ARMA建模方法,将ARIMA模型应用于我国农村居民消费水平的分析与预测,得到较为满意的结果。     

重庆金融发展和城乡居民消费差距关联的实证分析

本文利用1985～2009年的数据对重庆市金融发展水平与城乡居民消费差距进行了实证分析,Granger检验结果表明,重庆市整体金融发展水平的提高对城乡消费差距的缩小有明显的正向作用,同时在此基础上,就缩小重庆城乡金融的发展水平提出了简要的建议。     

Residents’ attitudes on the contribution of cultural tourism in Tanzania

This study aimed at evaluating residents’ attitudes towards the contribution of cultural tourism to the social welfare of the local rural residents participating in cultural tourism activities by factoring gender and level of education as possible differentiating factors in residents’ attitudes. Based on survey of local people in northern part of Tanzania, a questionnaire was administered that yielded data that were subjected to a series of t-tests. The results indicate residents to have both positive and negative attitudes towards the contribution of cultural tourism. Gender differences are noted to relate with cultural tourism participation and attitudes towards the contribution of cultural tourism. Females benefit more from cultural tourism than males in economic terms. Having education raises the chances of locals having a more positive attitude towards cultural tourism. From the results, implications to facilitators in cultural tourism to further aid tourism contribution to the locals are derived.     

An operational method to supporting siting decisions for sustainable rural second home planning in ecotourism sites

Due to inadequate environmental assessments, many sustainable tourism destinations have not contributed to both conservation and development as expected. This paper describes an operational spatial planning method to evaluate the suitability of an ecotourism site. As using the multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) based on the understanding of all possible aspects and implications of the existing regional planning, this work presents a process to siting second home countryside in the study area, La Vera County, Spain. Accordingly, this study explores the criteria using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) with the primary screening and supporting opportunities of environmental conservation and economic growth as well. To reach a consensus criteria weight, a field survey to local residents and group discussion with a panel of experts were conducted for an analytical procedure, making them more objective. Then, it evaluated the suitability of the study area in order to optimally site a rural second home based on the previous constraints and criteria with the aid of the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator weighing functions with constant value of orness and maximum entropy. The assessment results provide a new empirical approach and valuable management tool to evaluate the existing infrastructure and environment and to predict their future improvements that can be reapplied to other destinations. These strongly emphasize benefits to the local community and effective ecotourism with its integration. Particularly, this model analysis proposes a method to demonstrate the participatory attitude of local residents in the sustainable planning assessment.     

浅析我国房地产经济的宏观调控

为规范房地产市场健康、稳定的运行,对房地产业进行宏观调控是极为必要的。通过对房地产业的调整与改革,宏观调控的手段逐渐趋于合理,但也不可否认仍存在一些问题。文章基于国家统计局公布的房地产业相关数据及统计年鉴中的相应数据,从房地产经济来源及销售情况两个方面对我国房地产经济的发展现状进行了梳理。通过货币政策、财政政策、土地政策以及金融体系安全四个角度对房地产的宏观调控进行分析,指出了现行房地产宏观调控中存在的一些问题并提出了应对策略,以期为房地产业进行合理的宏观调控提供相应指导建议,促使其健康发展。     

The development of highway nuisance perception: Experiences of residents along the Southern Ring Road in Groningen,The Netherlands

The perception of highway nuisance i.e. noises, air pollution and barrier-effects, is associated with negative effects on health and quality of life. This study aims to gain a deeper understanding of the development of highway nuisance perception among residents. Interviews were conducted with residents in 32 households living along the Southern Ring Road, a highway which crosses various neighbourhoods in the city of Groningen, the Netherlands.Various themes emerged from the interviews which were important in the development of residents’ perceptions of highway nuisance. For example, our interviews showed that residents who had not explicitly chosen to live next to a highway were more acutely affected by the negative externalities of that highway later. Perceived environmental changes, often due to governmental actions such as new/extended noise barriers, removal of trees and newly constructed buildings causing noise reflection, also played a role in the interviewees’ development of nuisance perception. In addition, the interviewees indicated that expectations about future highway developments influenced their current perception of highway nuisance, which could be described as anticipation effects. Interviewees also indicated that recent information about the potentially harmful effects of air pollution increased their concerns about living near the highway. A final theme discussed were differences in the extent to which residents were able to develop coping strategies to reduce the amount of highway nuisance perception.The participants’ experiences indicate the importance of further integration between the planning of highway infrastructure and the broader environment in order to reduce nuisance perceptions and improve residential quality near highways.     

贵州省城镇居民消费结构动态分析

本文采集了1996～2007年贵州省城镇居民各类消费支出的数据资料,通过各类消费支出比重变化、消费结构变动度及贡献率等方面的动态分析,揭示贵州城镇居民家庭消费支出结构的数量变化特征从而探讨优化其消费结构的途径。     

新疆农村居民消费状况实证分析

改革开放以来，新疆农村居民的收入水平和生活质量不断提高，农村居民的消费水平和消费结构发生了很大的变化，农村居民的消费方式已从过去的数量型转变为质量型，基本上由温饱型过渡到小康型，但消费关系日益复杂。新疆城乡间、地区间农村居民消费状况仍存在较大差别，制约新疆农村居民消费需求的因素主要表现在收入、环境、理念等方面。     

收入水平和收入风险对养老投资行为的影响——基于武汉市中心城区的调查数据

引导居民进行养老投资是缓解养老经济压力的重要途径之一,而影响养老投资的因素有很多。运用武汉市7个中心主城区753个居民的调查数据,以收入为切入点,从收入水平和收入风险两个角度考察其对居民养老投资行为的影响。研究结果显示,收入水平越高、收入风险越大,居民参与养老投资的可能性越大;收入水平与收入风险的边际效应呈倒U型,其中收入水平在6~10万的居民,养老投资的边际效应最大;异质性分析显示,女性、受教育程度较高、健康状况较差以及年龄较大的居民,收入水平和收入风险对养老投资的促进作用更大。通过用家庭收入水平代替个人收入水平、考虑风险态度与金融能力因素对养老投资的影响等方法进行稳健性检验,都证明了上述结果的可靠性。该结果不仅可以解释武汉市城镇居民养老投资的现状,而且对促进养老金融市场的发展与相关政策的制定也具有一定的启发和现实指导意义。     

中国城镇化发展与农民收入增长关系的动态计量经济分析

本文在建立向量自回归模型的基础上，运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解来刻画城镇化发展与农民收入增长之间的动态相关性。研究结论表明，我国城镇化发展与农民收入增长之间存在着较强的正向交互响应作用，而且其长期的响应作用程度更显著、更稳定。因此，在当前条件下，加速推进城镇化进程是持续增加农民收入的根本路径选择和重要途径。在采用城镇化发展促进农民收入增长的政策选择上，应采取长期政策而非短期政策。