管窥建设工程项目财务管理存在的主要问题

建设工程项目财务工作,是经济管理的重要组成部分,也是在市场经济条件下合理使用国家建设资金,保证工程质量,促进建设部门廉政建设的大问题。但是目前我国建设工程项目的财务管理工作还存在很多问题,本文拟就这方面问题的产生原因和对策进行探讨。     

Comparing the accuracy of multivariate density forecasts in selected regions of the copula support

This paper develops a testing framework for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing multivariate density forecasts with different predictive copulas, focusing on specific parts of the copula support. The tests are framed in the context of the Kullback–Leibler Information Criterion, using (out-of-sample) conditional likelihood and censored likelihood in order to focus the evaluation on the region of interest. Monte Carlo simulations document that the resulting test statistics have satisfactory size and power properties for realistic sample sizes. In an empirical application to daily changes of yields on government bonds of the G7 countries we obtain insights into why the Student-t and Clayton mixture copula outperforms the other copulas considered; mixing in the Clayton copula with the t-copula is of particular importance to obtain high forecast accuracy in periods of jointly falling yields.     

Forecasting with vector autoregressive (VAR) models subject to business cycle restrictions

In the last decade VAR models have become a widely-used tool for forecasting macroeconomic time series. To improve the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of these models, Bayesian random-walk prior restrictions are often imposed on VAR model parameters. This paper focuses on whether placing an alternative type of restriction on the parameters of unrestricted VAR models improves the out-of-sample forecasting performance of these models. The type of restriction analyzed here is based on the business cycle characteristics of U.S. macroeconomic data, and in particular, requires that the dynamic behavior of the restricted VAR model mimic the business cycle characteristics of historical data. The question posed in this paper is: would a VAR model, estimated subject to the restriction that the cyclical characteristics of simulated data from the model “match up” with the business cycle characteristics of U.S. data, generate more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than unrestricted or Bayesian VAR models?     

基于马克思主义真理观视角的证伪原则评析

波普尔的证伪理论在科学哲学界影响较大，一定程度上作为了科学哲学思想的基石。波普尔提倡以怀疑、批判和不断创新的精神对待科学研究和理论，鼓励人们向权威挑战，以促使科学处于不断创新的动态之中，由此推动科学自身不断向前发展。从马克思主义真理观的视角来看，这一理论既有它积极的哲学意义，同时也存在某些不合理的认识论因素。     

基于扎根理论的世界遗产标准vii运用 表征及演化趋势研究

世界遗产标准vii是UNESCO用以评价遗产地审美 价值的重要准则，由标准iii演化而来，从文化与自然美的混 合评价转向了仅对自然美学特征评价。选取以标准vii列入世 界遗产名录的145处项目(1978—2017年)，通过扎根理论 及分析，总结其运用特征、演化趋势和动因考辨。研究发现： 1)地区层面，不同地区运用标准vii所关注的审美价值具有差 异，如非洲关注色彩美学，欧洲和北美强调风景特质组合，亚 太地区重视强烈的自然文化关联、动态变化和组合关系，南美 和加勒比地区注重审美体验；2)词频运用层面，标准vii在各 地区的词频运用差异显著，各地区使用词频最高的为关于美的 “形容词”，除欧洲之外，其余地区代表“之最”特点的词频 次之；3)评价要点层面，欧洲和北美的风景特质评价具有很 强的特点与范式。最后解析了标准vii运用趋势与18世纪以来 的美学思想演变的内在联系；以期为标准vii的全球普世价值 与地区价值认知以及标准vii后续研究提供依据。     

An Actuarial Analysis of Participating Life Insurance

An actuarial model is developed to reveal the intrinsic nature of participating life insurance. The basic safe-side criterion is examined. It is established how the first-order prospective net premium reserve includes safety margins or bonus loadings, and it is demonstrated how the bonus loadings are currently released. It is demonstrated how surplus may be distributed and accumulated as a terminal bonus in an equitable way. The level premium is divided into a variable recurrent single premium and a variable natural premium, and an alternative to the prospective net premium reserve is examined. A capitalization of future safety margins or bonus loadings, which are related to past premiums and the paid-up benefit, may allow the insurance company a considerable increase in investment freedom. The theory is illustrated by numerical results.     

质量体系认证向2000版ISO／CD19001认证过渡初探

阐述建筑企业按照2000版ISOC/DI 9001标准的要求进行质量体系认证是发展的必然趋势,分析2000版ISO/CDI9001标准的结构,将它与1994版ISO9001标准进行比较,提出建筑企业质量体系认证如何向2000版ISO/CDl 9001标准认证顺利过渡,如何按照2000版ISO/CDl 9001标准的要求建立有效运转的质量体系的合理建议。     

大小非解禁的市场反应

本文利用事件研究方法,研究截止2010年3月31日解禁的大小非样本对二级市场股票价格的影响。结果表明,大小非解禁对市场产生了显著负面影响。在此基础上,对大小非样本进行了分类研究,发现大小非解禁后真正对二级市场产生的实质性冲击主要集中在高估值、非控股股东和自由减持三类样本,而在解禁前中低估值、控股股东和大宗交易减持三类大小非样本对二级市场存在一定的心理冲击,但幅度有限,且在解禁后市场对解禁前的心理冲击有一定的矫正。另外,值得注意的是,高估值和非控股股东两类大小非样本在解禁前存在明显人为拉高股价的操纵迹象。     

农村三大改革的效率反思

农村改革30周年之际,本文基于新福利经济学检验改革效率的标准,对其间发生的三大改革进行了反思,就未来农村改革的主线——形成城乡经济发展一体化新格局,提出了相关的几点政策建议。     

条件准入与财政体制对农民工市民化的影响

文章通过分析1999～2009年地方财政及2008年浙江省县级财政的收支数据,证明现行财政体制是城市政府对农民工实行"条件准入"的制度因素。要实现农民工市民化,应根据"非竞争"和"非排他"的程度,重新划分中央和地方财政的公共支出责任;地方财政的征税对象应由GDP转变为财产价值,因为GDP对居民数量边际递减,而财产价值对居民数量边际递增。