The real effects of credit default swaps

We examine the effect of introducing credit default swaps (CDSs) on firm value. Our model allows for dynamic investment and financing, and bondholders can trade in the CDS market. The model incorporates both negative and positive effects of CDSs. CDS markets lead to more liquidations, but they also reduce the probability of costly debt renegotiation and reduce costly equity financing. After calibrating the model, we find that firm value increases by 2.9% on average with the introduction of a CDS market. Firms also invest more and increase leverage. The effect on firm value is strongest for small, financially constrained, and low productivity firms.     

技术进步与工业结构调整关系研究——以近代天津为例

经济增长的根本动力是技术进步,经济增长过程是产业结构的变迁过程。本文以近代天津工业化进程中的技术进步为研究对象,详细分析了天津近代技术进步的层次、阶段及其与工业结构调整的关系,认为技术进步与工业结构调整具有正向相关性,并且促进了企业发展。     

哈萨克斯坦银行制度转轨研究——基于对中国的视角

银行业在经历了美国次贷危机和欧债危机以后,哈萨克斯坦通过危机对抗计划对本国的银行业进行了结构重组。该计划旨在通过银行注资方式提升银行运营系统效率,恢复信贷。许多银行业恢复措施因此计划而得以实施,其中四大银行已由政府注资。然而由此得出的教训是,通过银行注资解决存量问题虽然必要,但是不能成为全部。单纯向银行注资而缺少提高银行业务能力和刺激业绩向好的额外配套措施,银行注资可能难以奏效。相比之下,结构重组措施则使银行能够从证券投资组合中剥离掉不良资产,从而减少外国债务,促进持续发展。结构重组措施实施的重点是资产减损,着力提升公众信心,进而吸纳存款。     

Excessive risk taking and the maturity structure of debt

This paper analyses the effect of short term debt on equityholders' risk taking decisions. We show that if short term debt limits the expropriation of debtholders, it also implies a lower leverage, which prevents the firm from increasing tax shields. We then examine the incentive of equityholders to increase the firm risk when debtholders hold the option to swap a perpetual coupon bond with short term debt. We find that this option mitigates equityholders' risk shifting incentives. Compared to standard short term debt, this restructuring option deters debtholders expropriation, it increases leverage and it reduces the loss in tax shields due to asset substitution.     

非均衡博弈、央行的微观独立性与最优金融稳定政策

本文从当前金融稳定理论发展和中国金融稳定操作现实出发,构建了中央银行-金融机构-居民部门的非均衡博弈模型,试图寻找最优金融稳定规则。本文的基本结论如下:第一,在当前的金融稳定政策框架下,中央银行的货币与稳定政策组合存在多重均衡的可能;第二,基于中央银行和金融机构对于流动性的信息的不对称,金融机构具有隐藏信息和游说央行的负面激励;第三,中央银行出于对未来支付体系稳定的考虑,在与金融机构的博弈中处于被动地位,金融稳定和货币政策均因此而丧失独立性;第四,居民不具备真正的博弈参与权,而只是博弈结果的承担者,其结果是承担真实或隐性的通货膨胀税;第五,根据以上博弈分析,建立最优金融稳定政策必须在微观机制和宏观机制上实施重新设计,包括金融稳定政策的“最后”性、中央银行的监督权赋予和保持距离型制度安排、金融稳定内含于货币政策,以及稳定与改革的分离和成本的重新界定。     

机会主义资产重组与刚性管制

本文选择 1 993— 2 0 0 0年间上海证券交易所 1 2 0 2例上市公司资产重组事件为研究样本 ,考察了资产重组与政府管制之间的关系。研究发现 ,1 997年我国宏观经济由过热转向软着陆 ,而监管部门对上市公司的配股管制 ,却仍然采用经济过热时期制订的标准 ,由于管制标准偏离了实际经济情况和投资者的机会成本 ,许多上市公司采取了相应的对策———“机会主义资产重组”来规避管制。本文的发现为我国的“替代性管制”提出了新的不利的证据。     

ST公司重组的财富效应

本研究采用事件研究法对我国沪深两市的72起重组事件进行了实证研究,结果表明重组事件能给公司股东带来明显的财富效应;不同重组类型和公司股权结构的不同对股东财富影响有显著差别,股权重组类和法人股占多数类的ST公司重组财富效应相比其它重组类型和股权结构的ST公司更为显著。     

The factor income distribution in China: 1978–2007

This paper investigates changes in aggregate labor share in China during 1978 and 2007 with a particular focus on the 1995–2007 period during which official statistics report a drop of 12.45 percentage points in labor's share of national income (labor share). Our main findings are: (1) The reported fall in aggregate labor share is overstated. According to the official statistics released by the NBS (2007a), the labor share fell 5.25 percentage points from 2003 to 2004. However this dramatic decline, 42.16% of the total reported decline of the labor share from 1995 to 2007, is completely due to the changes in the way NBS break down the operating surplus state-owned and collective-owned farms and the mixed income of the owners of individual economy; (2) For the last three decades, two main forces have been driving shifts in the aggregate labor share: (i) structural transformation between the agriculture and non-agriculture sectors and (ii) shifts in the labor share within the industry sector; (3) From 1995 to 2003, these two effects are both negative and together drive down aggregate labor share by 5.48 percentage points. The structural change explains 61.31% of the decline and the remaining 38.69% of the decline is due to the changes in the labor share within sectors, primarily in the industry sector; (4) Labor share in agriculture is lower than labor share in services. Therefore, when the service sector grows relative to the agriculture sector in the economy, the aggregate labor share of income declines; and (5) Restructuring of the SOEs and expanded monopoly power are the main reasons for the decline of labor share within industry after 1998. Relative price shifts, the factor input ratio, and biased technological progress are all insignificant forces for this decline because the substitution between factors in the industry sector is nearly unit elastic.     

中国工业的结构调整、效率与劳动配置

本文利用 1 999— 2 0 0 1年最新的企业调查数据 ,分析了中国工业结构调整对其生产效率和就业吸纳的影响。研究表明 ,中国工业结构越来越符合中国的资源和要素禀赋 ,劳动力成本低廉的比较优势得到不断发挥。轻工业部门和劳动密集型产业的较快增长 ,不仅提高了中国工业的总体效率 ,而且为缓解目前日益严峻的失业问题发挥了重要作用。在振兴和改造传统的老工业基地过程中 ,应将大力发展轻工业部门和劳动密集型产业放在突出地位 ,通过深化国有企业产权制度改革和加快结构调整步伐 ,增强东部地区的工业经济活力和国际竞争力。     

"新""老"特区的对比及加快海南经济特区发展的对策建议

综合配套改革是科学发展观和构建和谐社会的必然要求,综合配套改革试验区(新特区)的设立,担负着当前国家改革的紧急任务,反映了时代的要求,也为原有的经济特区(老特区)的改革发展指明了方向.本文通过对"新""老"特区的对比分析,并结合海南经济特区现状,对海南省在新时期的改革与发展方向作一探讨.