Business model risk and uncertainty factors: Toward building and maintaining profitable and sustainable business models

Business models and business model innovation—and particularly their opportunities—have been a popular topic recently, but we find the extant literature on the subject lacking. The risk and uncertainty aspect typical of business models has not been sufficiently addressed. We draw upon the existing literature and triangulate results with an extensive expert group interview to identify 28 risk and uncertainty factor groups, creating a checklist that can be used as the first step in an integrative business model risk management process for existing and new iterations. With an established process for managing and identifying risk in business models, managers can make more conscious and well-informed decisions.     

Size and value effects in high-tech industries: The role of R&D investment

We use monthly US stock data over 55 years from 1962 to 2017 to show that the R&D intensity at firms adds another important dimension to the size and value effects in describing stock returns, especially for small high-tech firms. A trading strategy that double sorts on R&D intensity and size or book-to-market ratio outperforms a simple small-minus-big (SMB) or high-minus-low (HML) strategy in producing higher and more significant portfolio returns. The most profitable schemes involve triple sorts by size, BM, and R&D intensity: the payoffs of buying high-BM/R&D-Active portfolio and selling low-BM/R&D-Inactive portfolio in the small-size/high-tech group and that of buying high-tech/high-BM and selling low-tech/low-BM in the small-size/R&D-active group generate a return of more than 2% on a monthly basis. Our results are robust to alternative classification method of assigning stocks in portfolios.     

影响客运车辆交通安全的因素及其对策

客运车辆安全管理工作是减少交通事故发生和降低人员伤亡及经济损失的有效手段。本文通过分析影响客运车辆安全运行的各种因素,以及部分实际发生的客运车辆交通事故案例,提出了加强和改善客运车辆安全管理的对策和技术措施,对防止或减少客运车辆运营安全事故,提高客运企业安全生产技术和管理水平具有重要意义。     

On the predictability of the distribution of excess returns in currency markets

This paper investigates the predictability of foreign exchange (FX) volatility and liquidity risk factors on returns to the carry trade, an investment strategy that borrows in currencies with low interest rates and invests in currencies with high interest rates. Previous studies have suggested that this predictability could have been spuriously accounted for due to the persistence of the predictors. The analysis uses a predictive quantile regression model developed by Lee (2016) that allows for persistent predictors. We find that predictability changes remarkably across the entire distribution of currency excess returns. Predictability weakens substantially in the left tail once persistence is accounted for, implying a moderate negative predictive relation between FX volatility risk and carry trade returns. By contrast, it becomes stronger in the right tail. Furthermore, we provide evidence that FX volatility risk still dominates liquidity risk after controlling for persistence. These findings suggest that the persistence of the predictors needs to be taken into account when one measures predictability in currency markets. Finally, out-of-sample forecast performance is also presented.     

Optimal portfolios under worst-case scenarios

In standard portfolio theories such as Mean–Variance optimization, expected utility theory, rank dependent utility heory, Yaari’s dual theory and cumulative prospect theory, the worst outcomes for optimal strategies occur when the market declines (e.g. during crises), which is at odds with the needs of many investors. Hence, we depart from the traditional settings and study optimal strategies for investors who impose additional constraints on their final wealth in the states corresponding to a stressed financial market. We provide a framework that maintains the stylized features of the SP/A theory while dealing with the goal of security in a more flexible way. Preferences become state-dependent, and we assess the impact of these preferences on trading decisions. We construct optimal strategies explicitly and show how they outperform traditional diversified strategies under worst-case scenarios.     

信用担保机构内部风险控制——基于COSO框架

我国中小企业信用担保机构是专门经营和管理信用风险的机构,其对资金的倍数放大作用同时也是对风险的放大。担保风险能否被有效地防范与控制关系到信用担保机构的可持续发展。信用担保机构的内部风险控制是防范担保风险的重要途径之一,文章结合COS0风险管理框架探讨了我国信用担保机构内部风险控制。     

顾客视角城市品牌概念模型探析

指出城市也可以像产品一样通过品牌来提升竞争力和吸引力,建设城市品牌的关键是明确城市顾客的需求,找到顾客期望的价值点;分析了顾客视角城市品牌概念模型的功能体验和象征性这两个维度,并讨论了影响城市顾客城市品牌感知的要素。     

Stochastic productivity measurement

Stochastic productivity indicators are defined, and superlative measures of these indicators are derived. It is shown that, in the presence of complete markets or a common-expectations equilibrium, differences in the market values of firms are superlative indicators of cross-sectional productivity differences. Exactness results are used to decompose nonstochastic productivity indicators into a measure of true productivity change and a measure of ‘luck’. The decomposition is illustrated empirically.

电子商务环境下我国现代物流的发展研究

首先对电子商务与现代物流之间的联系进行介绍,然后分析电子商务对现代物流产生的影响,进而指出我国电子商务条件下现代物流存在的主要问题,最后对电子商务环境下建立与之适应的现代物流系统提出对策与建议。     

信用担保机构内部风险控制——基于COSO框架

我国中小企业信用担保机构是专门经营和管理信用风险的机构,其对资金的倍数放大作用同时也是对风险的放大。担保风险能否被有效地防范与控制关系到信用担保机构的可持续发展。信用担保机构的内部风险控制是防范担保风险的重要途径之一,文章结合COSO风险管理框架探讨了我国信用担保机构内部风险控制。