Time-varying beta in functional factor models: Evidence from China

In this paper, we introduce a functional method to investigate how betas change over time in factor models. Based on the China A-share data, we drop the constant beta assumption in the CAPM and multi-factor models to estimate the time-varying betas directly from the functional data regression. The empirical results show that exposures to all risk factors have certain time-varying patterns in the Chinese A-share stock market.     

刍议民事案件缺席审判之规范——从程序与实体的维度出发

民事案件缺席审判是弥补一方缺席而导致的非常态化审理模式的有益补充。缺席审判的功能在于保障审判权正常行使,实现诉讼制度所追求的公正与效益两大价值内核。现阶段,缺席审判遭遇诸多困境,制约了缺席审判制度功效之发挥。实践中,需进一步规范民事案件缺席审判,从程序与实体方面人手,确保缺席审判的正当性、公正性、高效性,实现法律效果与社会效果的统一。     

复杂技术网络化布局三维风险及其规避策略研究

复杂技术如同一个多元技术网络系统,其网络化布局存在潜在的横向风险、纵向风险及结构风险。对应三维度风险分析,从网络合作规则设计、技术网络治理与技术网络资金支撑体系构建以及产权制度创新3个方面,提出了应对复杂技术网络化布局风险的规避策略与制度设计,对了解我国复杂技术创新网络以及加强网络风险治理具有一定的借鉴意义。     

A mixture model for credit card exposure at default using the GAMLSS framework

The Basel II and III Accords propose estimating the credit conversion factor (CCF) to model exposure at default (EAD) for credit cards and other forms of revolving credit. Alternatively, recent work has suggested it may be beneficial to predict the EAD directly, i.e.modelling the balance as a function of a series of risk drivers. In this paper, we propose a novel approach combining two ideas proposed in the literature and test its effectiveness using a large dataset of credit card defaults not previously used in the EAD literature. We predict EAD by fitting a regression model using the generalised additive model for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) framework. We conjecture that the EAD level and risk drivers of its mean and dispersion parameters could substantially differ between the debtors who hit the credit limit (i.e.“maxed out” their cards) prior to default and those who did not, and thus implement a mixture model conditioning on these two respective scenarios. In addition to identifying the most significant explanatory variables for each model component, our analysis suggests that predictive accuracy is improved, both by using GAMLSS (and its ability to incorporate non-linear effects) as well as by introducing the mixture component.     

Identifying risk issues and research advancements in supply chain risk management

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the research development in supply chain risk management (SCRM), which has shown an increasing global attention in recent years. Literature survey and citation/co-citation analysis are used to fulfil the research task. Literature survey has undertaken a thorough search of articles on selected journals relevant to supply chain operations management. Meanwhile, citation/co-citation analysis uses Web of Sciences database to disclose SCRM development between 1995 and 2009. Both the approaches show similar trends of rising publications over the past 15 years. This review has piloted us to identify and classify the potential risk associated with different flows, namely material, cash and information flows. Consequently, we identify some research gaps. Even though there is a pressing need and awareness of SCRM from industrial aspect, quantitative models in the field are relatively lacking and information flow risk has received less attention. It is also interesting to observe the evolutions and advancements of SCRM discipline. One finding is that the intellectual structure of the field made statistically significant increase during 2000-2005 and evolved from passively reacting to vague general issues of disruptions towards more proactively managing supply chain risk from system perspectives.     

Entrepreneurial team's risk-based decision-making: A dynamic game analysis

It is well-known that some cognitive factors such as opportunity perception and risk perception influence entrepreneurial risk-based decision-making (RBDM). This paper proposes some rules of entrepreneur's risk decision-learning to address this RBDM taking cognitive factors into consideration. The learning mechanisms of entrepreneurial team's RBDM is derived based on entrepreneur's perception evolution. The paper employs a system dynamics model to analyze the entrepreneurial team's risk decision-learning. A case study is conducted to demonstrate the entrepreneurial RBDM process with cognitive factors.     

Pure meat – Public perceptions of risk reduction strategies in meat production

Experience has shown that both the assessment and implementation of new technologies in food production are challenged by negative assessments of the technologies by the public. This article seeks to deepen our understanding of the concerns that may underlie negative attitudes to various kinds of risk reduction strategy in meat production, with the aim of distinguishing between forms of risk reduction in terms of their acceptability. The paper reports the result of a focus-group study. Six focus groups with Danish citizens (N: 5–9) were conducted during May 2006. The design of the groups took a bottom-up approach and included elements of meat quality, meat safety and risk reduction strategies. The study shows the dilemma risk reduction presents to members of the public. On the one hand, people want safe meat; on the other, the study showed that with the exception of hygiene practices, people generally have an aversion to risk reduction strategies. Some variation was found, however, in the rejection of the strategies. Thus, more acceptable strategies are characterised by a low degree of technological interference, and by being close to the consumer’s experience in everyday life and/or familiar to the participants’ picture of meat production. It is also important that the strategy does not alter the quality of the end-product (meat) in an unfavourable way. The implications of the results and the inherent dilemma for meat safety policy formation are discussed.     

互助担保基金的创新模式——ESMGF模式、运作机制

中小企业的不断发展,使其对资金的需求也越来越大,仅凭自身积累已远远不能解决问题。然而,由于中小企业自身及金融系统等多方面的原因,融资难的问题日益显现,成为阻碍中小企业发展的主要因素。为解决上述问题,设计了一种以产业集群为单位,由地方政府、协作银行、集群中小企业三方共同出资,共同承担风险,联合再担保机构的互助担保基金创新模式——嵌入再担保的互助担保基金(Embedded Se-curity Mutual Guaranteed Fund,ESMGF)。     

旅游伦理道德判断与结构性分析

旅游伦理道德是旅游业,也是整个社会顺利运转的润滑剂和粘合剂。伦理道德涵盖了许多方面。本文讨论了旅游企业伦理道德、旅游者消费伦理道德、生产伦理道德、政府伦理道德和生态伦理道德,并将其贯穿于旅游经营活动的始终,进而推动旅游伦理理论和道德观的发展。     

新巴塞尔资本协议与商业银行操作风险管理

操作风险正日益成为全球银行业风险管理的研究焦点。新巴塞尔协议将操作风险纳入风险管理框架，为其设定新的资本要求。目前我国的商业银行缺乏风险意识，尤其是在操作风险方面基本没有什么量化操作风险的科学方法，不能正确反映所承受的风险，操作风险的管理水平亟待提高。本文首先对操作风险进行界定，分析其主要特点，之后从国际和国内两方面对操作风险现状进行考察，阐述了新巴塞尔协议中操作风险的计量方法并对其进行评述，最后介绍了操作风险管理流程，并对我国商业银行操作风险管理的策略选择提出建议。