保险业完善风险管理、提高偿付能力的演进研究

2008年金融危机袭击全球,影响着各国的经济发展。专门从事风险集中与分散的保险业也难以独善其身,加强保险业的风险防范和控制能力,已经刻不容缓。本文介绍了我国保险业风险管理的演进历程及现阶段的风险趋势,并论述了加强风险管理、提高偿付能力的路径前瞻。     

Forecasting risk attitudes: An experimental study using actual and forecast gamble choices

We develop and evaluate a simple gamble-choice task to measure attitudes toward risk, and apply this measure to examine differences in risk attitudes of male and female university students. In addition, we examine stereotyping by asking whether a person's sex is read as a signal of risk preference. Subjects choose which of five 50/50 gambles they wish to play. The gambles include one sure thing; the remaining four increase (linearly) in expected payoff and risk. Each subject also is asked to guess which of the five gambles each of the other subjects chose, and is paid for correct guesses. The experiment is conducted under three different frames: an abstract frame where the two highest-payoff gambles carry the possibility of losses, an abstract frame with no losses, and an investment frame that mirrors the payoff structure of the former. We find that women are significantly more risk averse than men in all three settings, and predictions of both women and men tend to confirm this difference. While average guesses reflect the average difference in choices, only 27 percent of guesses are accurate, which is slightly higher than chance.     

Cephalon, Inc. Taking risk management theory seriously

Cephalon Inc., a biotech firm, bought call options on its own stock to meet its conditional cash flow needs. We analyze this decision by using the cash flow hedging concepts of Froot et al., (1993. Journal of Finance 5, 1629–1658). We identify the managerial analyses necessary to apply this theory and discuss managerial considerations absent from the theory. We find that managers consider deadweight costs of risk management, which theory tends to ignore. Theory provides little guidance in how to measure these and other deadweight costs. Finally, uncertainty about the availability of external financing and accounting considerations are critical considerations by managers.     

基于产权视角的企业风险管理本质分析

企业风险的产生与企业内部产权价值运动过程中不同阶段的产权价值形态之间的转换关系密切。本文运用产权理论,结合企业的不完全契约的性质,对企业风险形成的机理、本质和相应的风险管理措施进行了系统探讨。     

金融体系风险分担机制比较研究

金融体系风险分担机制分为金融市场的横向风险分担机制与银行中介的跨期风险分担机制。横向风险分担机制在规避非系统性风险方面占有优势,而跨期风险分担在规避系统性风险方面占有优势。两种风险分担机制是一种互补关系,适度结合才能更好地发挥金融体系的风险分担功能。在经济全球化的过程中,金融体系的两种风险分担机制都会受到损害,对经济稳定形成威胁,因此我们在金融改革和对外开放的过程中应该从风险分担的视角来进行金融体系设计,保持一个健全的风险分担机制。     

我国责任保险市场发展问题研究

本文系统研究中国责任保险市场发展基本状况,分别从我国责任保险的保费情况、市场份额、保险深度和密度等角度,分析责任保险市场发展现状及存在的问题,指出违法成本低、法律外部环境不健全、国家与保险公司重视程度不够是当前责任保险发展不足的主要原因。随后本文总结了发达国家责任保险的发展经验,并结合国内实际,提出了扩大责任保险的有效供给、增加责任保险的有效需求、因地制宜发展责任保险、完善与责任保险相关的法律法规以及部分责任保险需强制实施等在内的五条建议。     

Intertemporal substitution, risk aversion and ambiguity aversion

Summary. This paper axiomatizes a form of recursive utility on consumption processes that permits a role for ambiguity as well as risk. The model has two prominent special cases: (i) the recursive model of risk preference due to Kreps and Porteus [18]; and (ii) an intertemporal version of multiple-priors utility due to Epstein and Schneider [8]. The generalization presented here permits a three-way separation of intertemporal substitution, risk aversion and ambiguity aversion.Received: 5 August 2003, Revised: 12 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D80, D81, D90.I am grateful to Larry Epstein for his guidance and invaluable advice, and to a referee for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Pricing and hedging European options with discrete-time coherent risk

The aim of the paper is to provide as explicit as possible expressions for upper/lower prices and for superhedging/subhedging strategies based on discrete-time coherent risk measures. This is done on three levels of generality. For a general infinite-dimensional model, we prove the fundamental theorem of asset pricing. For a general multidimensional model, we provide expressions for prices and hedges. For a wide class of models, in particular, including GARCH, we give more concrete formulas, a sufficient condition for the uniqueness of a hedging strategy, and a numerical algorithm.      

Credit portfolios: What defines risk horizons and risk measurement?

The strong autocorrelation between economic cycles demands that we analyze credit portfolio risk in a multiperiod setup. We embed a standard one-factor model in such a setup. We discuss the calibration of the model to Standard & Poor’s ratings data in detail. But because single-period risk measures cannot capture the cumulative effects of systematic shocks over several periods, we define an alternative risk measure, which we call the time-conditional expected shortfall (TES), to quantify credit portfolio risk over a multiperiod horizon.