Modelling demand for lotto using a novel method of correcting for endogeneity

Modelling lottery sales as a function of the mean, standard deviation and skewness of the probability distribution of returns potentially gives insights into how the design of a game could be modified to maximise net revenue. But use of OLS is problematic because the level of sales itself affects values of the moments (and insufficient instruments are available for IV regression). We draw on the concept of a rational expectations equilibrium, developing a new regression model which corrects for endogeneity where the causal impact of the dependent variable on the right-hand side variables is deterministic. We apply the model to data on lotto sales from Spain. Using the Spanish data, we show that results provide more reliable guidance to lottery agencies because accounting for endogeneity leads to significantly different results from OLS and these results have superior performance in out-of-sample forecasting of sales. More generally, results prove consistent with the Friedman-Savage explanation of why people buy lottery tickets and with evidence from racetrack data that ‘bettors love skewness’.     

长三角一体化背景下,“金融+科技”政策研究及产业培育路径分析

以长三角一体化发展为契机,区域内各个城市均在积极推进区域金融中心城市建设,着力打造金融聚集区、金融商务区试点,提升金融资源的集聚能力,完善金融服务功能和创新能力,形成特色鲜明、功能互补的金融产业集群。2019年8月,中共合肥市委、合肥市人民政府正式印发了《合肥市推动长三角地区更高质量一体化发展重点工作推进方案》,其中明文提到要"加快金融一体化",依托滨湖金融小镇等一批金融产业项目,积极引进长三角银行、保险、基金、期货、证券公司等金融机构在合肥设立区域分中心,为基础设施建设、科技创新升级、实体经济发展提供支持。立足合肥的科创及人才优势,安徽省级特色小镇--合肥滨湖金融小镇从设立之初,就确立了"金融+科技"的特色产业定位,本文通过案例分析及共词分析研究,梳理出滨湖金融小镇应重点推进"确立人才优先的产业集聚核心逻辑""实现科创中心与金融中心良性互动""释放金融基础设施项目,助推金融科技落地""监管科技与金融科技齐头并进""构建产业生态圈与金融品牌"等五大特色产业培育路径。     

风险层级决策体系下的财务共享中心权责研究

由共享思想衍生的财务共享服务在当前的我国大型企业中已经得到较广泛的运用,当企业的业务线撤销财务权力后,所带来的财务共享中心的权责问题成为了阻碍财务共享服务提升流程处理效率的因素之一。通过对决策事件进行影响度以及风险性的划分并形成决策矩阵,探析在不同组织层级下财务共享中心的具体决策权之所在以及财务共享中心对于企业应急事件信息处理的反应系统,以期为财务共享中心的权责问题决策提供参考。     

Risk aversion,public disclosure,and partially informed outsiders

In this paper, we examine the impact of public disclosure and partially informed outsiders on a risk-averse insider’s trading behavior, market efficiency, and market depth. In our model, under disclosure requirements, except for the final auction, market depth is the same at every auction. When informed outsiders are risk-neutral, in contrast to the case of a risk-averse insider with no informed outsiders, the insider is more concerned about the uncertainty about future price risk. When the number of informed outsiders increases, market liquidity improves, and the insider increases the variance of her random component to conceal her trading strategy. However, since the insider is relatively more risk-averse, she pays less attention to doing this on her own. Besides, the order flow provided by informed outsiders and randomly added by the insider injects additional liquidity into the market. When informed outsiders are risk-averse, compared to risk-neutral informed outsiders, an insider is most concerned about trading risks brought by informed outsiders at the beginning of trading. Furthermore, whether the trader is an insider or informed outsider, the more risk-averse trader has lower expected profits. Moreover, outsiders’ greater risk aversion leads to a smaller market depth.     

Measuring extreme risk spillovers across international stock markets: A quantile variance decomposition analysis

This paper proposes a quantile variance decomposition framework for measuring extreme risk spillover effects across international stock markets. The framework extends the spillover index approach suggested by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) using a quantile regression analysis instead of the ordinary least squares estimation. Thus, the framework provides a new tool for further study into the extreme risk spillover effects. The model is applied to G7 and BRICS stock markets, from which new insights emerged as to the extreme risk spillovers across G7 and BRICS stock markets, and revealed how extreme risk spillover across developed and emerging stock markets. These findings have important implications for market regulators.     

‘Real without being concrete’: the ontology of public concern and its significance for the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF)

Abstract

Public concern is a pivotal notion in the risk perception, communication and management literature. It is, for example, a central concept with regard to the social amplification of risk, and as a justification for policy attention. Despite its ubiquity, the notion of public concern remains a ‘black box’ presenting a poorly understood state of affairs as a reified matter-of-fact. Paying attention to the deployment and metrics of public concern, and the work it is required to do, will enhance the power of approaches to understanding risk, and policymaking. Thus, the broad purpose of this paper is to unpack the notion of public concern by adopting an ontological yet critical perspective, drawing on a range of literature that considers ontology. We reflect on how publics and public concern have been conceptualised with regard to the dichotomies of individual/social and private/public, given that they imply different levels and dimensions of concern. We draw on empirical work that illuminates the assessment and measurement of public concern and how the public have responded to risk events. Considering public concern through an ontological lens affords a means of drawing renewed critical attention to objects that might otherwise appear finished or ready-made.     

Leader Emergence in Nascent Venture Teams: The Critical Roles of Individual Emotion Regulation and Team Emotions

This study advances a theory of how different aspects of emotion regulation influence individual leader emergence in the intensely emotional context of nascent venture teams. Despite the growing amount of research on the role of leadership in the entrepreneurial process, the emergence of leaders in nascent venture teams has rarely been explored. Drawing on theories and research on leadership emergence and emotion regulation, we argue that the two aspects of emotion regulation (i.e., reappraisal and suppression) exert opposite effects on the degree to which nascent venture team members come to perceive an individual as a leader. We also theorize that team emotions arising from affective events moderate the relationship between reappraisal and leader emergence in such teams. Data from 103 nascent venture teams without prior leaders show a negative relationship between individuals’ trait disposition to suppress emotions and their emergence as leaders, and a positive relationship between their trait disposition to reappraise emotions and their emergence as leaders. Moreover, we find that negative team emotions magnify the positive association between reappraisal and leader emergence, while positive team emotions mitigate it. We discuss the implications of our findings for the literature on entrepreneurial leadership, entrepreneurial emotions, and leadership in general.     

Short-sale constraints and informational efficiency to private information: A natural experiment

Exploiting a regulatory change in short-sale constraints (Regulation SHO) as a natural experiment, this paper examines the effect of short-sale constraints on informational efficiency of stock prices to private information. I find that short-sellers act as informed traders prior to forthcoming analyst news and trade on negative private information. When short-sale constraints are relaxed for pilot stocks (treatment group), both trading volume and stock price sensitivity increase prior to the analyst announcement for bad news but not for good news, relative to that of nonpilot stocks (control group). The findings are consistent with the Diamond and Verrecchia model that predicts that short-selling increases the speed of adjustment of stock prices to private negative information. In the cross-section, the effect of Reg SHO is stronger in stocks of firms with weak and uncertain information environments (i.e., small firms and firms with high analyst forecast dispersion).     

Business model risk and uncertainty factors: Toward building and maintaining profitable and sustainable business models

Business models and business model innovation—and particularly their opportunities—have been a popular topic recently, but we find the extant literature on the subject lacking. The risk and uncertainty aspect typical of business models has not been sufficiently addressed. We draw upon the existing literature and triangulate results with an extensive expert group interview to identify 28 risk and uncertainty factor groups, creating a checklist that can be used as the first step in an integrative business model risk management process for existing and new iterations. With an established process for managing and identifying risk in business models, managers can make more conscious and well-informed decisions.     

Stabilizing Endogenous Instability: Proposals for An Institutionalist Reform of Financial Regulation

A major and persistent question behind economic theories and related policies is whether the market can self-regulate without any restrictive exogenous intervention or whether regular and binding public regulation is necessary for ensuring the reproduction of the economic system in a sustainable way over time. This article considers this question with regard to the working of financial markets in a liberalized environment. Drawing upon an institutionalist stance, the article shows why the operation of a financialized capitalist economy usually leads to systemic imbalances and crises. The article then suggests an alternative framework for a consistent financial regulation that could prevent market actors from developing short-sighted strategies and gambling on macro stability.