基于KMV模型的市政债券融资风险问题研究

城市基础设施是城市发展水平和文明程度的重要支撑,是城市经济和社会协调发展的物质条件,也是一个地区乃至一个国家经济和社会协调发展的基础。市政债券在国外特别是发达国家已经被广泛地运用于城市基础设施建设。对湖北省的市政债券的信用风险问题进行实证分析得出:应从市级债券的风险控制入手,严格控制其发行规模,从而将风险控制在可接受的范围内。运用KMV模型的实证债券信用风险测度模型。     

外国商会在中国的发展与治理模式比较

进入新世纪以来,外国商会在中国发展迅速,1989年的《外国商会管理暂行条例》已明显不能满足现实之需。文章对以美国商会为代表的英美模式、以德国商会为代表的欧洲大陆模式以及以日韩商会为代表的混合模式进行描述和分析,发现不仅中国政府的监管乏力,外国商会的健康发展也遇到了挑战。文章认为,更新现有条例以及建立分级管理、登记与备案等新的规范机制成为当务之急。     

Machine learning for regularized survey forecast combination: Partially-egalitarian LASSO and its derivatives

Despite the clear success of forecast combination in many economic environments, several important issues remain incompletely resolved. The issues relate to the selection of the set of forecasts to combine, and whether some form of additional regularization (e.g., shrinkage) is desirable. Against this background, and also considering the frequently-found good performance of simple-average combinations, we propose a LASSO-based procedure that sets some combining weights to zero and shrinks the survivors toward equality (“partially-egalitarian LASSO”). Ex post analysis reveals that the optimal solution has a very simple form: the vast majority of forecasters should be discarded, and the remainder should be averaged. We therefore propose and explore direct subset-averaging procedures that are motivated by the structure of partially-egalitarian LASSO and the lessons learned, which, unlike LASSO, do not require the choice of a tuning parameter. Intriguingly, in an application to the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters, our procedures outperform simple average and median forecasts; indeed, they perform approximately as well as the ex post best forecaster.     

西三角经济圈的合理性分析——基于空间经济学基本原理

通过运用Walter Christaller提出的中心—地方理论,以及空间经济学的基本原理,建立了一个以重庆、成都、西安三地区为支撑点的空间区域经济模型。通过模型分析西三角经济圈的合理性,并为西三角经济的进一步健康发展提出有利建议。     

Adaptive learning forecasting,with applications in forecasting agricultural prices

We introduce a new forecasting methodology, referred to as adaptive learning forecasting, that allows for both forecast averaging and forecast error learning. We analyze its theoretical properties and demonstrate that it provides a priori MSE improvements under certain conditions. The learning rate based on past forecast errors is shown to be non-linear. This methodology is of wide applicability and can provide MSE improvements even for the simplest benchmark models. We illustrate the method’s application using data on agricultural prices for several agricultural products, as well as on real GDP growth for several of the corresponding countries. The time series of agricultural prices are short and show an irregular cyclicality that can be linked to economic performance and productivity, and we consider a variety of forecasting models, both univariate and bivariate, that are linked to output and productivity. Our results support both the efficacy of the new method and the forecastability of agricultural prices.     

Cost effectiveness of duloxetine in the treatment of fibromyalgia in the United States

Abstract

Objective:

To evaluate the cost effectiveness of duloxetine when considered as an alternative treatment for patients in the United States (US) being treated for fibromyalgia pain.

Research design and methods:

A Markov model was used to evaluate the economic and clinical advantages of duloxetine in controlling fibromyalgia pain symptoms over a 2-year time horizon. A base-case treatment sequence was adopted from clinical guidelines, based on tricyclic antidepressants, serotonin-norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors, anticonvulsants, and opioids. Treatment response was modeled using changes from baseline in pain severity, and response thresholds: full response (at least a 50% change), response (30–49% change), and no response (less than a 30% change). Clinical efficacy and discontinuation data were taken from placebo- and active-controlled trials identified in a systematic literature review and mixed-treatment comparison. Utility data were based on EQ-5D data.

Main outcome measures:

Additional symptom-control months (SCMs), defined as the amount of time at a response level of 30% or less, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over a 2-year time horizon.

Results:

For every 1000 patients, first-line duloxetine resulted in an additional 665 SCMs and 12.3 QALYs, at a cost of $582,911 (equivalent to incremental cost-effectiveness ratios [ICERs] of $877 per SCM and $47,560 per QALY). Second-line duloxetine resulted in an additional 460 SCMs and 8.7 QALYs, at a cost of $143,752 (equivalent to ICERs of $312 per SMC and $16,565 per QALY).

Limitations:

Response data for TCAs are limited to 30% improvement levels, reported trials are small, and have low placebo response rates. The model necessarily assumes that response rates are independent of placement in the treatment sequence.

Conclusions:

The results suggest that the introduction of duloxetine into the standard treatment sequence for fibromyalgia not only provides additional patient benefits, reflected by time spent in pain control, but also is cost effective when compared with commonly adopted thresholds.     

中国服务贸易的出口潜力估计及国际比较——基于截面数据引力模型的实证分析

本文在借鉴文献引力模型基础上,结合中国与其主要的服务贸易伙伴国的实际情况建立截面数据模型,分别得到人均GDP、人口数量、国内产品市场管制、多边市场开放度、服务贸易结构和服务开放度等变量对服务出口贸易的影响大小,预测了中国对世界的服务贸易总额及结构的出口潜力,并与美、日、韩三国作了相应比较,结果表明：我国服务贸易总额较大,传统的服务部门（如旅游、建筑服务）已经充分发挥了潜力,而新兴的服务部门尤其是金融服务出口潜力的开发仍然有很大的空间,这种贸易的不足不是由于国家的管制措施引起的,而主要是由服务行业结构特征导致的.因而促进服务出口的措施应充分考虑行业发展的均衡性以及出口额与出口效益的关系。

Abstract：

Based on the gravity model and combination of the actual situation of China with that of its major trade partners,this article creates cross-sectional data model,and obtains that the impacts of GDP per capita,population,Domestic Product Market Regulation,multilateral market openness,service trade structure,services openness et al on services exports,forecasts China,s export potential of total and structure in services trade and compares it with that of the America,Japan and Korea,the result shows that：China,s total trade in services is over-performance, traditional service sectors such as tourism and construction services have reachedtheir potential,however,the emerging sectors especially the financial services still have a lot of space for export potential. This lack of exploiting the potential arises not from our country regula-tion,but from structural characteristics of the service sector. Therefore,the measures to promote services export should be fully considered the balanced development of the industries and the relationship between export values and effectiveness.     

高职院校创新创业理论知识教育改革研究

文章着力于提高高职学生综合素质,分析了创新创业理论知识教育的重要性,提出了目前在培养目标、课程体系、师资队伍三个方面存在的问题,并分析了原因,探讨了高职院校创新创业理论知识教育改革的具体策略:优化人才培养方案、完善创新创业理论知识教育课程体系、加强创新创业师资队伍建设和改革创新创业教学管理等四个方面.     

Accept–reject Metropolis–Hastings sampling and marginal likelihood estimation

We describe a method for estimating the marginal likelihood, based on Chib (1995) and C hib and Jeliazkov (2001) , when simulation from the posterior distribution of the model parameters is by the accept–reject Metropolis–Hastings (ARMH) algorithm. The method is developed for one-block and multiple-block ARMH algorithms and does not require the (typically) unknown normalizing constant of the proposal density. The problem of calculating the numerical standard error of the estimates is also considered and a procedure based on batch means is developed. Two examples, dealing with a multinomial logit model and a Gaussian regression model with non-conjugate priors, are provided to illustrate the efficiency and applicability of the method.     

江苏省城市化与服务业发展的动态计量分析

利用1990—2008年江苏省的相关数据,对城市化与服务业发展的动态关系进行了分析,结果表明：城市化和服务业发展之间存在一定的Granger因果关系和长期均衡关系,服务业发展是城市化水平提高的Granger原因;服务业发展与城市化任何一个的变动都会对另一个和自身产生影响,其中,服务业发展的变动对城市化和自身会产生较强的正向冲击;城市化的变动对服务业发展在短期和长期内均产生正向冲击,但是作用均不显著。