考虑违约距离的上市公司危机预警模型研究

在上市公司财务危机预警中,违约距离起着重要的不可替代的作用,仅考虑财务指标并不足以完全解释企业财务危机发生的原因.文章应用Merton模型对2002～2004年ST公司和相应配对公司的危机发生之前的违约距离进行了研究,发现危机公司违约距离在危机发生前第三年明显低于正常公司的相应值,违约距离比传统财务指标能更早地预警到企业财务危机的发生.结合违约距离因素的危机预警模型能更明显地提高模型的危机判断正确率.     

构建我国个人信用体系保障机制--韩国"坏银行"重整制度考察之思考

我国个人消费信贷近几年的发展十分迅速，但是在个人消费信贷的快速发展中，银行由于个人不良信贷所引发的不良债权比重逐年上升，而且信用环境不良有恶化这一问题的趋势。个人信用制度的建设、个人不良信贷资产的处置和我国个人信用安全体系的构建，已经成为摆在我们面前的现实问题。韩国资产管理公司在处置信用卡公司不良债权中的“坏银行”重整制度，构成了韩国金融安全网络的重要组成部分，这一制度设计值得我们借鉴。     

科技信用制度建设的回顾与展望

科技信用缺失给国家和社会带来了极大危害.我国自20世纪90年代以来,从加强国家科技计划项目和科学基金的管理入手,制定了一系列规范科技人员行为的政策法规,为科技信用制度建设奠定了基础.今后,这项工作的重点是：制定科技人员信用规范,建立信用信息评价指标体系,提高指标量化评价的科学性,完善信用数据库和信用信息共享平台系统,构建失信行为惩戒机制.     

Environmental tax policy in a model of growth cycles

Summary. The purpose of this paper is to consider environmental taxation which would control emissions of firms in a model of growth cycles. In the model presented below, the economy may experience two phases of growth and environmental quality: “the no-innovation growth regime” and “the innovation-led growth regime”. Aggregate capital and environmental quality remain constant in the no-innovation growth regime, while they perpetually increase in the innovation-led growth regime. The paper shows that the tax plays a key role in determining whether the economy stably converges to one of the two regimes or fluctuates permanently between them. It also shows that there is a critical level of the tax and that the economy obtains higher growth rates of capital and environmental quality by raising (or reducing) the tax if the initial tax is below (or above) the critical level. Received: April 2, 2001; revised version: March 21, 2002 RID="*" ID="*" This research reported here was conducted within the research project “Project on Intergenerational Equity” at Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. I am deeply grateful to an anonymous referee for his or her insightful comments, which greatly improved the paper. I also thank Hiroshi Honda, Yasuo Maeda, Yuji Nakayama, and participants in workshops at Hitotsubashi University, Kyoto University, Nagoya University, Osaka University, University of Tsukuba, Yokohama National University, and University of Tokyo for their valuable comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors are mine.     

谈我国信用标准的方案设计

信用标准为征信机构的设施建设、技术和操作提供了规范,对征信产品质量提出了明确的要求,必将对我国征信行业的发展产生重要影响。借鉴国际经验,加快信用标准化工作并把握好标准的设计是当前的一项重要任务。     

The role of banks in CESEE countries: exploring non-standard determinants of economic growth

This paper explores the finance–growth nexus in 14 countries from Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe (CESEE) over the 1995–2015 period. It investigates whether including two ‘non-standard’ variables, i.e. a credit cycle dummy and foreign bank relevance, deepens our understanding of the role of a typical financial determinant of economic growth, i.e. bank credit. We find evidence of a negative impact of bank credit on economic growth and the significance of cyclical fluctuations of bank credit. In contrast, a higher market share of loans granted by foreign-owned banks in a cyclical upswing and stock market capitalisation are found to have a proactive effect on growth.     

Business cycles in Italy: A statistical investigation

This paper conducts a statistical analysis of post-war economic fluctuations in Italy. It is argued that business cycles in this country qualitatively conform to the general character of the phenomenon, a result which confirms existing evidence. A temporal stability analysis of stylized facts shows that some statistically significant changes in the empirical regularities occurred after 1973, but they did not alter the main qualitative features of the business cycle. The evidence thus supports interpretative models of the Italian business cycle which incorporate a stable propagation mechanism.     

大学生旅游市场营销误区浅析

大学生旅游市场因其蕴含的巨大潜力已成为业内商家关注的亮点,但在经历了几年的研究与开发之后,大学生旅游市场并没有发生显著的变化,反而似乎已变为让商家望市兴叹的“鸡肋”。文章对这一现象进行了重点分析,找出关键的营销误区,并提出相应的改进建议。     

Schumpeter's circular flow,learning by doing and cyclical growth

A two-sector growth model with endogenous technical change is presented. Concerning technical change, we assume that it is reflected by increases in the stock of human capital which are acquired through learning by doing. As a result, it turns out that transitory or, using the Hopf bifurcation theorem, persistent oscillations of the economic variables may be the outcome. Thus we are able to show that learning mechanisms alone may be sufficient to destroy the circular flow as described by Schumpeter.     

金融生态建设与信贷风险控制——一个基于破产金融机构信贷风险的实证分析

金融生态建设是一项长期的、复杂的系统工程,金融生态环境与银行信贷风险息息相关。本文通过对破产金融机构信贷风险的实证分析,指出我国县域金融机构金融生态的劣质性主要是制度性欠缺导致的,其中的关键是管理制度不规范,包括行政制度、信贷制度、法律制度与信用制度的缺失,从而导致信贷风险等一系列问题的发生。最后,本文提出金融生态的改良必须彻底转换政府理念,实施金融机构战略转型,并在全社会推进信用工程建设。