分组无线网分群后的隐藏终端问题分析

出口代理业务目前已经成为外贸企业进出口业务的重要组成部分。外贸企业在接受委托开展业务中,有可能遇到各种业务风险。作者根据多年从事代理业务的实践体会,归纳出外贸企业出口代理业务中的一些操作规范。同时,针对外贸企业出口代理业务中的业务风险,笔者介绍了行之有效的具体防范方法。     

The emergence of humanity’s self-awareness

A fundamental difference between humans and other animals is that humans are highly self-aware while other complex animals are less so; and simple creatures like mosquitos are not self-aware at all. Some researchers believe that self-awareness is an emergent property of a complex neural network. If this is so, then high self-awareness should appear when a neural network approaches the complexity of the human brain (∼90 billion neurons and 10¹⁴ synapses). If one takes a much broader view and considers all of humanity as a neural network, then today there are ∼7 billion individual human elements, of whom ∼3 billion are interconnected via computers, smart phones, tablets, and the Internet. By morphological analogy, as human interconnectivity continues to grow and strengthen, eventually humanity will approach ∼70 billion interconnected humans, at which point we will become highly self-aware as a single human super-organism. This organismal self-awareness may manifest itself as the elimination of wars, hunger, and strife, and as the collaboration of all individual elements working together for the greater good of humanity. It is projected that this organismal self-awareness will occur between the years 2400 and 2600.     

外资研发与国家创新系统的自组织演化

任何一个开放的国家创新系统的发展都是一个自组织演化的过程,是这个系统不断发展、不断成熟和不断进化的动态过程。外资研发活动对东道国国家创新系统自组织演化的作用,在于强化了这个过程的前提基础、动力机制和涨落作用。目前,外资在华从事的研发活动越来越多,而且从量和质上都发生了变化。但是,这是否有利于我国国家创新系统的演化,还取决于我国吸收先进技术的能力、外资研发机构与我国企业和研究机构的关联性、创新市场的竞争性以及技术人力资源情况等条件。     

企业知识创新系统自组织特性及演进机理研究

以系统观的视角研究了企业知识创新系统,深入分析了企业知识创新的动态过程。将企业知识创新过程、创新模式与创新环境联合起来进行考察,提出了企业知识创新系统的一般模型。阐述了创新系统的运行模式,并针对企业知识创新系统的特点,探讨了企业知识创新系统自组织演进的过程。     

基于自组织视角的区域金融发展研究—以江苏为例

从自组织理论视角来分析演化机制,本文在此基础上分析了区域金融发展的自组织过程和自组织趋向。研究表明,区域金融发展自组织过程是以区域人文地理为背景,金融在社会经济系统演化选择中的历史变迁过程;区域金融发展自组织趋向是经济发展引导下的在集中和扩散金融资源、参与地方风险管理和定价以及促进实体经济结构调整等方面增强服务功能;江苏金融发展对此做了极好的印证。     

Circulation of autonomous agents in production and service networks

The inherent complexity characterizing production and/or service networks strongly favors decentralized and self-organizing mechanisms to regulate the flows of matter and information in circulation. This basic observation motivates us to study the flow dynamics in queueing networks roamed by autonomous agents which, at a given time and at a given vertex location, select their routing according to (individual) historical data (such as waiting times) collected during their past progression in the network. For several simple network configurations and despite the intrinsically non-Markovian character of the dynamics, we are able to discuss analytically the emerging collective dynamics that such a circulation of autonomous agents generates. Feedback loops in the network topology coupled with the presence of delays in the routing selection mechanisms produce a wealth of dynamical phenomena like self-sustained generically stable oscillations, spatio-temporal patterns, stabilization by noise phenomena and oscillator synchronization that are explicitly discussed in this paper.     

基于自组织的河西走廊新能源产业集群成长演化

基于自组织理论,从产业集群成长演化视角探讨我国新能源产业发展,选取典型地区新能源产业集群进行集聚度分析,探索新能源产业集群成长规律,分析河西走廊新能源产业集群成长演化。研究发现：我国新能源产业于2004年进入集群成长自放大阶段,2013年前集聚水平稳定上升,现阶段产业发展面临升级与衰退两种极端;结合产业集聚水平变化,基于自组织理论,可将我国新能源产业集群成长演化划分为4个阶段;河西走廊新能源产业集群在政府外生力量的推动下,已完成资源要素自增强阶段,形成了空间集聚,目前处于企业集聚能力自放大向集群系统自调整的过渡阶段。最后,提出了加快河西走廊新能源产业集群发展的对策。     

基于自组织方法的税收收入组合预测模型

自组织理论是基于神经网络和计算机科学的迅速发展而产生和发展起来的。它将黑箱思想、生物神经元方法、归纳法、概率论、数理逻辑等方法有机地组合起来。其主要思想是通过简单的初始输入（局部变量）的交叉组合产生第一代中间候选模型,再从第一代中间候选模型中选出最优的若干项组合而产生第二代中间候选模型,重复这样一个产生、选择和遗传进化过程,使模型复杂度不断增加,直到选出最优复杂度模型为止。本文利用自组织方法进行数据筛选和建立税收预测模型,并在数据筛选基础上建立线性回归预测模型和BP神经网络预测模型,然后结合时间序列的预测模型,利用自组织方法建立组合预测模型。通过预测结果比较得出了组合预测模型比其它单个模型具有更高的预测精度。     

生态工业园持续发展的关键:自组织机制的培育与发展

生态工业园承载着可持续发展目标,但从当前园区系统的发展情况来看,生态工业园本身的持续发展面临诸多问题;以自组织理论为基础,阐释了生态工业园的持续发展与园区系统自组织机制培育与发展的辩证关系;最后,提出了培育与发展园区系统自组织机制的策略。     

Seven tools for creating adaptive policies

Experience demonstrates that policies crafted to operate within a certain range of conditions are often faced with unexpected challenges outside of that range. The result is that many policies have unintended impacts and do not accomplish their goals. Adaptive policies are designed to function more effectively in complex, dynamic, and uncertain conditions. Based on over a dozen case studies on public policies relating to agriculture and water resources management in Canada and India, we conclude that there are seven tools policymakers should follow to create adaptive policies. Adaptive policies anticipate and plan for the array of conditions that lie ahead: (#1) using integrated and forward-looking analysis; (#2) monitoring key performance indicators to trigger built-in policy adjustments; (#3) undertaking formal policy review and continuous learning; and (#4) using multi-stakeholder deliberation. But not all situations can be anticipated. Unknown unknowns and deep uncertainty will always be part of policymaking. Adaptive policies are able to navigate toward successful outcomes in settings that cannot be anticipated in advance. This can be done by working in concert with certain characteristics of complex adaptive systems and thereby facilitating autonomous actions among stakeholders on the ground. To a degree, adaptive policy tools #3 and #4 can be used toward this purpose, but most directly, such autonomous tools include: (#5) enabling self-organization and social networking; (#6) decentralizing decisionmaking to the lowest and most effective jurisdictional level; and (#7) promoting variation in policy responses. This paper elaborates on these seven tools as a pragmatic guide for policymakers who find themselves working in highly complex, dynamic, and uncertain settings.