重推原油期货对我国的影响及完善建议

摘要：中国重新推出原油期货,是经济发展的必然结果。目前原油期货上市意义重大,上市时机已经成熟。重推原油期货,需要：打破石油市场的垄断,吸引广泛的市场参与主体;建立更具开放性、操作性的交易机制;建立并完善石油战略储备体系;大力发展资本市场,构建多层次金融市场体系,推进石油金融一体化;多视角择机推动“石油人民币”体系的建立,促进人民币的崛起。     

上海市居民收入差距研究

近十几年来,上海市居民收呈现上升趋势,同时,上海居民收入的差距在不断扩大,中等收入家庭持续萎缩。造成这种状况的原因主要包括分配原则的改变、收入结构的变化、失业率上升、社会保障体系的不完善、制度政策不到位、调控乏力等。针对上述原因,政府应该采取相应措施,控制上海居民收入差距拉大的趋势。     

投资者情绪与沪深300股指期货定价偏差关系研究

股指期货已发展成为全球金融衍生品主流品种,股指期货定价问题事关市场套利行为,一直备受投资者关注。本文基于投资者情绪视角,运用VAR模型、脉冲响应、方差分解等方法,深入探讨沪深300股指期货定价偏差与投资者情绪的关系。研究发现:投资者情绪与沪深300股指期货定价偏差之间构成因果关系,且呈现正向影响;股指期货定价偏差受投资者情绪影响而长期存在,其对投资者情绪的影响短期效果显著。     

Liquidity,information, strategic trading in an electronic order book: New insights from the European carbon markets

The electronic limit order book (LOB hereafter) has rapidly become the primary way of trading European carbon assets over the 4 years of the EU ETS programme (2008–2012). In this first attempt of examining the informational content of an electronic order book, we evidence that order flow imbalances have a moderate capacity to predict short term price changes. However, we find that both LOB slope and immediacy costs help to forecast quote improvements and volatility in the next 30 min. Further, we explain why informed trading is highly influential and show that it consists in mixing order splitting strategies and posting fleeting orders once the asymmetric information is reduced (Rosu, 2009). Overall, the consolidated status of the order book mirrors a high level of market uncertainty and a low degree of informational efficiency. In this way, strategic trading can in itself explain some of order book properties, independently of the degree of traders’ sophistication and market competition.     

新国际经济背景下的上海自由贸易区

以国际经济视角解读上海自由贸易区建立的时代背景、历史使命,阐述上海自贸区的制度创新点以及由此可能带来的连锁反应,并对相关社会、经济问题该如何解决提出建议.     

上海市总部集群建设与区域创新发展

上海依托其金融、贸易、航运的中心地位,吸引大量的跨国公司总部进驻。近10来年,上海的总部经济规模迅速扩大,形成几个特大规模的总部经济集聚区,但其总部经济的发展也存在较大的问题,总部集群的要素集聚度低,总部集群的创新水平低,总部集群创新环境较差等问题。建设好上海的总部经济有其重要的现实意义,我们应大力提高总部经济的自主创新能力、促进创新环境的建设、构建创新要素的网络结构等。     

EXPORT AND HEDGING DECISIONS UNDER CORRELATED REVENUE AND EXCHANGE RATE RISK

This paper examines the behaviour of a competitive exporting firm under joint revenue and exchange rate risk. The firm can trade unbiased currency futures contracts for hedging purposes. We show that neither the separation theorem nor the full‐hedging theorem holds when the revenue shock prevails. If the correlation between the revenue shock and the random spot exchange rate is non‐positive, the firm optimally produces less than the benchmark level when the revenue shock is absent. If, in addition, the firm is prudent, the optimal futures position is an under‐hedge. Finally, we derive sufficient conditions under which the firm's optimal output level is higher in the presence than in the absence of the revenue shock. Operational hedging and financial hedging as such interact in a complicated way to better cope with the multiple sources of uncertainty faced by the firm.     

Policy and politics behind Shanghai’s Free Trade Zone Program

China launched the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) Program on September 29, 2013 in a bid to reduce administrative interventions, ease restrictions on investments, further open up its financial system, and internationalize its currency to booster shipping, logistics, and commerce. This article aims to present a background of the Shanghai FTZ and some reflections on it. China’s economic reconstruction has made a major impact on its port cities. Competitions between ports are gradually evolving into competitions between supply chains, with ports no longer considered as isolated links in the transport chain but rather as integral links in the supply chain. Ports are transitioning into fourth-generation ports with the establishment of logistics and value-added activities, which are developed in conjunction with local industrial and service businesses. In this trend, China’s port cities can provide a wide range of value-added services and become centers of commodity flow, capital flow, and information flow. Specifically, the combined effects of driving the development of peripheral industries and actively coordinating the activities of relevant parties help regulate the operations of the entire supply chain to obtain potential value-added benefits. The implementation of the Shanghai FTZ will not only stimulate trade but will also bring increased shipping and finance opportunities to the city. With free trade as the new direction and focus of the country’s economic initiatives, the Shanghai FTZ will hopefully lay the groundwork for a new round of reforms and restructuring of the Chinese economy.     

How about selling commodity futures losers?

This paper explores the benefits of extending the investment universe to commodity futures, from the perspective of momentum traders. We find that the growth-optimal portfolio includes negative (positive) weights on commodity futures losers (stock winners). Motivated by this finding, we construct a joint momentum strategy, buying stock winners and selling commodity futures losers, and show that it generates an average monthly return of up to 1.91% and provides much lower skewness (0.04) and kurtosis (1.27) than a traditional stock momentum strategy. It also greatly improves profitability, especially in unfavorable market states, and thus effectively manages tail risk.     

上海合作组织命运共同体:一项研究议题

构建上海合作组织命运共同体是中国政府提出的关于促进上海合作组织长远发展的重大倡议。由于上海合作组织命运共同体理念的提出时日尚短,学术界关于该理念的研究尚未全面启动。要使上海合作组织命运共同体理念成为一个有效的研究议题,不仅需要明晰上海合作组织命运共同体的具体内涵,而且需要将其纳入国际共同体、国际组织和大国外交等议题的研究,提炼出一些具有普遍性的理论命题。就攸关上海合作组织命运共同体构建的重大问题而言,至少需要回答上海合作组织命运共同体提出的理论与实践意义、上海合作组织命运共同体构建应遵循的基本路径、上海合作组织命运共同体构建的基础和条件、上海合作组织命运共同体构建面临的挑战与障碍、学术界能为上海合作组织命运共同体构建提供的对策建议等重大问题。在此过程中,学术界还需将其与周边命运共同体、人类命运共同体等家族相似性的概念纳入同一研究视域,以澄清上海合作组织命运共同体的内涵与外延,辨识上海合作组织命运共同体演变的动力与机制,并从理论层面提炼上海合作组织发展经验的特殊性与普遍性。