Backcasting energy futures using industrial ecology

Backcasting has been widely used for developing energy futures. This paper explores the potential for using industrial ecology to guide the development of energy futures within a backcasting framework. Building on the backcasting work of Robinson [1], a seven step method is presented to embed industrial ecology principles within the development and assessment of future scenarios and transition paths toward them. The approach is applied to the case of backcasting regional energy futures in the Latrobe Valley, near Melbourne, Australia. This region has substantial brown coal deposits which are currently mined and used in coal-fired power stations to generate electricity. Bounded by a sustainability vision for the region in a carbon-constrained world, regional industrial ecologies in 2050 were backcast around three themes: bio-industries and renewables (no coal usage); electricity from coal with carbon capture and storage (low to high coal usage); and coal to products such as hydrogen, ammonia, diesel, methanol, plastics and char (demonstrating medium to high overall coal use relative to current levels). Potential environmental, technological, socio-political and economic impacts of each scenario across various life cycle stages were characterised. Results offer a platform for regional policy development to underpin deliberation on a preferred future by the community, industry and other stakeholders. Industrial ecology principles were found to be useful in backcasting for creatively articulating alternative futures featuring industrial symbiosis. However, enabling the approach to guide implementation of sustainable transition pathways requires further development and would benefit from integration within the Strategic Sustainable Development framework of Robèrt et al. [2].     

Suspending disbelief: Influencing engagement in scenarios of forest futures

Scenario analysis is an approach to long-term planning that informs decision-making in contexts of highly uncertain future conditions. Scenario-based studies are rapidly growing in popularity, yet many aspects of the method are not fully understood. Participants' willingness to suspend disbelief in possible futures is an integral component of scenario-based studies, essential for considering alternative future scenarios, yet little is known about the factors that affect it. Participation in a scenario project does not necessarily imply willingness or ability to suspend disbelief; participants may not suspend disbelief simply upon request. However, the scenario literature says little about the aspects of scenario-based studies that influence suspension of disbelief.This article explores the factors that influenced the suspension of disbelief in one scenario exercise about the future of Canada's forests. Participants differed in their abilities to suspend disbelief in the scenarios in part because of their past experiences and expertise in particular areas, and their assessments of probable and desired future outcomes. Elements of the project design and implementation influenced participants' abilities to engage the scenarios. The results have implications for those interested in using scenarios for helping people and communities envision possible - and sustainable - futures.     

商品期货对资产配置的风险分散价值研究

基于BEKK-GARCH模型,本文考察了我国部分商品期货品种与股价指数收益率之间条件相关系数的动态变化特征,结果表明:商品期货与股价指数收益率之间存在较低的相关性;一些商品期货品种价格与股价指数的市场相关性呈长期减弱的趋势;而且,两者之间的相关性随股票市场波动率的增大而下降,股市波动幅度越大,商品期货与股价指数之间的相关性越低;这些都意味着商品期货对于资产配置有较好的风险分散价值。     

我国商品期货市场节约社会试错成本研究

随着市场经济的发展,对期货市场功能的认识不断深化。文章在总结已有研究的基础上提出了价格发现是期货市场基本功能的观点,并将价格发现功能归结到微观上的套期保值、投机、套利和宏观上的节约社会试错成本。文章通过南华期货商品综合指数与PPI的关系检验,证实我国商品期货市场起到了节约社会试错成本的作用。为更好地发挥这一功能,应大力推进期货市场建设,完善商品期货体系,推出权威合理的商品期货指数。     

期货市场价格操纵行为与监管——基于演化博弈理论

从演化博弈理论的视角,基于微分方程的稳定性理论,通过分析中间参数的变化对博弈系统的最终演化均衡的影响,论证了期货市场联合操纵行为演化的方向和路径,并结合"有限理性"个体的假设进行模拟。最后,对期货市场价格操纵行为的监管提出了相关建议。     

中美大豆期货市场价格发现功能比较研究

借助于Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量分析方法对中关两国大豆期货市场价格发现功能进行了实证研究,研究结果表明：中国大豆期货市场在一定程度上具有了价格发现功能,但与期货市场发展相对成熟和完善的美国相比,这一功能的发挥要明显落后于美国。本文提出了增强中国大豆期货市场价格发现功能的相关政策建议。     

上海世博园区后续开发框架——国家、上海和园区周边需求的视角

5.28平方公里上海世博园区拥有丰富而且独特的资源优势。世博园区后续开发是举办＂成功、精彩、难忘＂世博会的重要组成部分,构建科学的世博园区后续开发框架决定了世博园区后续开发的效果。国家、上海以及园区周边需求为界定园区开发框架的＂园区开发管理主体、园区产业选择与园区开发方式＂三个核心主题提供了三维分析视角。     

上海国际贸易中心与国际航运中心建设互动关系实证研究

现有研究定性地认为,上海国际贸易中心与国际航运中心互为前提、相互影响,但是鲜有定量研究。本文为弥补这一缺憾,以上海市20世纪90年代以来的经济数据为基础,从国际贸易中心建设的必备条件入手,运用协整检验、VEC模型和Granger因果检验方法考察上海国际贸易中心和国际航运中心建设之间的互动关系。研究表明,国际贸易中心建设的必备条件,如经济实力、国际航运条件、科技水平、金融服务体系和政策法规环境等与其存在长期影响。同时,无论是在长期内还是短期内,上海国际航运中心建设对国际贸易中心建设都有着显著的促进作用,而且短期影响力超过长期影响。经Granger检验发现,国际航运中心与国际贸易中心建设之间存在双向因果关系,这一发现同样适用于国际金融中心和国际贸易中心建设之间的关系,从而定量地验证了三个中心相互依赖的不可分割关系。     

人民币汇率对国际原油定价的影响和机制

本文基于动态条件相关混频数据抽样模型,研究人民币汇率收益率与国际原油收益率的相关性.结果表明:人民币收益率与国际原油收益率存在一定程度负相关关系,但负相关程度不高;中国原油进口量和制造业采购经理指数上升能提升人民币和原油收益率的负相关程度,面额效应的作用机制存在;国际期货市场投机活跃程度增强能提升人民币和原油收益率的负...     

上海城市历史遗产保护项目投资管理初探

历史遗产保护是中国实践科学发展观,走可持续发展道路的重要组成部分。上海实施最严格的保护制度,开展试点工作。以试点项目中74号街坊为例,从房地产投资商的角度,对这类特殊项目的投资和成本管理所应关注的几个关键问题进行了探讨,提出自己的观点,为同类项目提供参考和借鉴。