居民金融资产结构变化与国债认购空间分析

国债是居民持有的重要金融资产,居民对其金融资产结构的调整会影响国债的发行规模,本文通过国际比较分析总结了居民金融资产结构变化的规律。并考察了我国居民金融资产流量结构的变化趋势和国债在居民金融资产结构中的地位,为此为基础,对“十五”期间政府面向居民可以发生国债的规模进行了预测。     

论日本商业银行进入债券承销市场的效应

日本商业银行进入债券承销市场乃至日本金融业混业经营改革采取的都是一种渐进的方式,而包括金融业混业经营在内的日本金融改革对我国来讲具有较好的借鉴意义。从债券承销佣金、承销商选择和债券收益率价差等3个方面来看,日本商业银行进入债券承销市场是成功的,促进了债券承销市场的竞争,降低了企业发行债券的成本,提高了整体金融效率。就我国的具体情况来看,应在借鉴日本混业经营经验的基础上加快金融业混业经营的步伐。     

Ownership, institutions, and capital structure: Evidence from China

We employ a unique data set to explore the role of ownership structure and institutional development in debt financing of non-publicly traded Chinese firms. We show that state ownership is positively associated with leverage and firms’ access to long-term debt, while foreign ownership is negatively associated with all measures of leverage. Surprisingly, firms in better developed regions are associated with reduced access to long-term debt, suggesting the availability of alternative financing channels and the tightening of the lending standards under the on-going banking reform. The combination of ownership structures and institutions explains up to 6% of the total variation in firms’ leverage decisions, while firm characteristics alone explain no more than 8% of the variation. Further, we show that non-state-owned firms tend to have lower total and short-term debt than their state-owned counterparts in less developed regions. Finally, we show that state-owned firms’ easy access to long-term debt is positively associated with long-term investment and negatively associated with firm performance.     

中国开行地方政府债券的先决条件研究

是否允许地方政府发行债券是一个颇具争议的话题。本文通过运用宪政经济学和新公共管理理论的分析方法,对开行地方政府债券发行权利的先决条件进行了论述。结合目前中国实际,文章认为目前开行地方政府债券的条件尚不完全具备,并建议下一步推进政府债券的关键在于可行性建设。     

Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? New evidence

Kraay [Kraay, A., 2003. Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks? Journal of International Economics 59, 297-321.] documents the lack of any systematic association between monetary policy and the outcome of a speculative attack. This paper revisits Kraay's work and modifies it by introducing an improved measure of monetary policy and an additional country-specific fundamental, short-term corporate debt, to capture balance sheet vulnerabilities emphasized by the recent currency crises literature. The results show that for low levels of short-term corporate debt, raising interest rates lowers the probability of a successful attack. This effect decreases and eventually reverses for higher levels of debt. These findings contrast earlier empirical evidence and imply a fundamental reconsideration of the role of monetary policy during currency crises.     

金融发展与经济增长:中国的经验研究

本文采用GMM估计量,把影响中国经济增长的重要变量(投资、出口、进口、人力资本、制度质量和通货膨胀)作为条件信息集,对金融发展(债券市场、股票市场和银行发展)与中国经济增长的关系及其作用机制进行了实证研究。文章发现:债券市场规模发展、银行对私人信贷扩张和股票市场流动性提高显著地促进经济增长,而股票市场规模发展和波动性扩大对经济增长具有显著的负面影响。金融发展对中国经济增长的作用机制主要是通过促进投资规模扩张,进而驱动经济增长。     

信息披露、公司规模与债券市场发展困境

我国债券市场面临着缺乏规模效益、发展不均衡等发展困境。通过实证结果表明：我国债券市场准入的门槛限制与公司信息披露质量不高是造成其发展困境的主要原因;在公司规模一定时,信息披露质量越高,债券融资比例越高;信息披露质量一定时,公司规模越小,债券融资比例越高。因此,降低债券市场准入的门槛限制,提高公司信息披露质量是促使我国债券市场走出发展困境的两个关键措施。     

对我国国债市场流动性的实证研究

本文从流动性的宽度和深度两个角度,对上海交易所和银行间债券市场的流动性进行量化分析,分析中使用一阶序列自协方差模拟估计有效价差(宽度),用换手率和Amivest流动性比率估计深度及宽度.经研究发现:两个市场的流动性具有结构性特征,不能简单比较,得出孰高孰低的结论;在回购交易品种中,银行间市场的7天回购流动性最佳,其价格可以作为基准利率;债券市场存在新券和旧券之间的流动性替代效应.     

The public bond offering of Petróleos de Venezuela S.A.

In April 2007, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) issued debt for USD 7.5 billion, the largest debt offering to date by a Latin American company. The conditions surrounding this issue, which was denominated and tradable in dollars, but payable in bolivars, were quite special, particularly when considering the strict foreign exchange control system put into place by the Venezuelan government in 2003. The fact that the bond issue attempted to fulfill the dual purpose of offering dollars to local companies and investors in the midst of prevailing exchange rate controls, while helping to finance PDVSA as a company, creates a unique dilemma that is ideal for class discussion. This teaching case provides the information necessary for estimating and proposing a price for PDVSA's bond offer.     

Do real estate investors trade on momentum?

Real estate markets are known to be less-than-efficient for many reasons, but what roles short-term trading plays are unclear. Do short-term investors bring additional risk to the market and cause prices to deviate from fundamental values? Based on an extensive dataset of property transactions and a policy shock that substantially raised the cost of short-term trading in Hong Kong, we estimate ‘real estate risk’ with and without short-term trading based on return predictability, return volatility, and price dispersion. Our results show that as short-term investors exit the market, market returns are less predictable and less volatile, while prices are less dispersed cross-sectionally. Consistent with herding models in behavioral finance, the findings suggest that short-term investors are momentum traders who do not enhance price efficiency.