The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: Lessons from a parametric term structure model

Parametric term structure models have been successfully applied to numerous problems in fixed income markets, including pricing, hedging, managing risk, as well as to the study of monetary policy implications. In turn, dynamic term structure models, equipped with stronger economic structure, have been mainly adopted to price derivatives and explain empirical stylized facts. In this paper, we combine flavors of those two classes of models to test whether no-arbitrage affects forecasting. We construct cross-sectional (allowing arbitrages) and arbitrage-free versions of a parametric polynomial model to analyze how well they predict out-of-sample interest rates. Based on US Treasury yield data, we find that no-arbitrage restrictions significantly improve forecasts. Arbitrage-free versions achieve overall smaller biases and root mean square errors for most maturities and forecasting horizons. Furthermore, a decomposition of forecasts into forward-rates and holding return premia indicates that the superior performance of no-arbitrage versions is due to a better identification of bond risk premium.     

Risk factors in Australian bond returns

This study examines the risk factors in Australian bond returns. The study quantifies bond liquidity and estimates a liquidity risk factor in the Australian setting. We develop a three‐factor asset pricing framework that uses term, default and liquidity risk factors to explain the variation of Australian bond returns. Our findings corroborate the US evidence on the pervasiveness of these risk factors faced by bond investors. The three‐factor model developed in this study has practical applications when calculating the cost of debt, evaluating the performance of an active bond fund manager and hedging underlying risk in a bond portfolio.     

利用债券市场工具解决小微企业融资困境的研究

小微企业作为我国市场经济的微观基础,长期以来一直面临着渠道受限、成本高等一系列融资困境。文章从小微企业自身发展与外部融资方式等多个角度入手,归纳总结了造成小微企业融资困境的主要原因,提出利用债券市场工具解决小微企业融资困境的可行性;结合对目前几种专门针对小微企业融资的债券市场工具的比较分析,提出信用增信、风险缓释措施和融资结构设计等三个方面是解决小微企业融资困境的核心关键。     

Security design,market risk and round quotes in the treasury bond market

Prior literature finds that the tendency of price-endings to cluster on rounder fractions increases with price volatility. We estimate the separate influences and relative importance of the determinants of price volatility, security design and market risks. Our data is from a market setting that is ideal for isolating and studying the relations of interest. Results for both quote and trade prices indicate that the tendency to use round price-endings increases with both a security’s inherent risk, attributable to security design, and variation over time in market risks. Security design influences clustering more than market risks, but market risks are influential in determining clustering once security design is fixed. The estimated effects are strongest in the on-the-run market segment where liquidity facilitates the aggregation of information into price.     

IPO performance and the size effect: Evidence for the US and Canada

This study provides new evidence on the interaction between firm size and IPO underpricing in the US and Canadian markets. We find a size effect on IPO underpricing in both Canada and the US, which is larger for Canadian firms. Canadian small firms show more underpricing than US small firms (19.32% vs. 13.87%). Large Canadian firms also exhibit more underpricing than their US counterparts over the sample period (12.83% vs. 10.09%). A size effect on performance is not apparent for holding periods beyond six months from the IPO in both countries, consistent with seasoning effects that reduce information asymmetries across firms over longer investment horizons.     

Bond risk premia and realized jump risk

We find that augmenting a regression of excess bond returns on the term structure of forward rates with an estimate of the mean realized jump size almost doubles the R² of the forecasting regression. The return predictability from augmenting with the jump mean easily dominates that offered by augmenting with options-implied volatility and realized volatility from high-frequency data. In out-of-sample forecasting exercises, inclusion of the jump mean can reduce the root mean square prediction error by up to 40%. The incremental return predictability captured by the realized jump mean largely accounts for the countercyclical movements in bond risk premia. This result is consistent with the setting of an incomplete market in which the conditional distribution of excess bond returns is affected by a jump risk factor that does not lie in the span of the term structure of yields.     

国际金融视角下美国两次金融危机的比较及对中国的启示

随着金融危机的不断深化,国际金融形势的变化越来越引人注目,金融危机背景下的中国经济也面临着巨大考验。本文从虚拟经济与实体经济的关系、国际短期资本流动、国际间政策协调三个方面对美国历史上两次世界性金融危机的情况进行比较分析,得出相应结论及对我国的启示。     

中国债券市场发展存在的问题与改进建议

本文从银行融资和证券融资这两种配置资源的角度出发,通过比较研究美、英、日等国家融资方式在经济发展不同阶段的特点、原因,指出各国融资方式运用的特定条件和世界上目前的发展趋势,最后,针对中国目前债券市场发展存在的问题进行分析,提出发展中国债券市场的相应对策。     

国际债券二级市场监管框架比较研究

在债券二级市场中,政府监管和行业自律监管缺一不可,却又扮演着不同的角色。文章从政府监管和行业自律监管两个角度,对美、英、日、印等国家债券二级市场的监管框架进行了总结分析,为国内债券市场的监管提供了借鉴。     

地方债发行能否推动实体企业高质量发展？——基于中国A股和新三板制造业上市公司数据的实证研究

对中国2015—2021年制造业上市公司财务报表和地方债数据的关系研究表明：地方债水平的提高能显著提升中国制造业企业全要素生产率。机制分析发现,地方债发行通过缓解融资约束、刺激企业加大研发投入,促进了制造业企业全要素生产率提升,但也减缓了高素质人才的积累。异质性分析发现,专项债比一般债更能显著提升制造业企业全要素生产率,并且地方债发行对提高大中型企业、国有企业、非劳动密集型企业、经济发达地区、低债务水平地区企业的全要素生产率的作用更加显著,进一步研究发现,地方债发行规模与企业高质量发展存在倒U型关系,地方债水平超过0.0773极值后,地方债发行会不利于企业全要素生产率提高,抑制企业高质量发展。研究结论对坚持通过地方债发行促进经济发展和企业高质量发展的政策具有重要现实意义。