On the Relationship between Domestic Saving and the Current Account: Evidence and Theory for Developing Countries

We examine the relationship between domestic saving and the current account in developing countries. Our three main findings are that: (i) domestic saving has a small effect on the current account; (ii) domestic saving has a significant positive effect on the trade balance—this effect is much larger than the effect that domestic saving has on the current account; and (iii) domestic saving has a significant negative effect on net-current transfers. We use countries in the SSA region during the period 1980-2009 as a laboratory for an instrumental variables (IV) approach. The IV approach enables to obtain estimates of causal effects. Underlying the IV approach is the significant positive first-stage response of domestic saving to plausibly exogenous annual rainfall: an unanticipated, transitory supply-side shock. We construct a small open-economy DSGE model with debt adjustment costs and endogenous current transfers to match the empirical findings. The model enables to examine the relationship between domestic saving and the current account for different types of shocks. An important message of our paper is that, for developing countries, estimates of the relationship between domestic saving and domestic investment are not informative for answering the question how domestic saving affects a country's accumulation of net foreign assets.     

Inflation targeting and the forward bias puzzle in emerging countries

Based on quarterly data on 31 emerging countries (among which 16 are inflation targeting countries) from 1990Q1 to 2014Q3, we obtain a strong support for the conjecture that the implementation of inflation targeting weakens the Fisherian relation between expected depreciation and the interest rate differential (uncovered interest parity condition) and thus is conducive to the appearance of the forward bias puzzle in emerging countries. We show that this reflects the performance of inflation targeting regimes in lowering the level and volatility of inflation. Our finding holds when controlling for country-specific effects, time-specific effects, global disinflation, exchange rate management, crises, and using different econometric techniques.     

A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions

Deteriorating economic conditions in late 2008 led the Federal Reserve to lower the target federal funds rate to near zero, inject liquidity through novel facilities, and engage in large‐scale asset purchases. The combination of conventional and unconventional policy measures prevents using the effective federal funds rate to assess the effects of monetary policy beyond 2008. We employ a broad monetary aggregate to elicit the effects of monetary policy shocks both before and after 2008. Our estimates align well with major changes in the Fed's asset purchase programs and yield responses that are free from price, output, and liquidity puzzles that plague other approaches.     

分工理论的社会基础及其演化逻辑--一个思想史的考察

分工理论本身经历了一个不断递进的过程，从而形成了多样化学说，如古希腊的外生绝对优势说、斯密的内生绝对优势说、李嘉图的外在相对优势说、马克思的协作收益说以及以马歇尔为代表的规模收益说。这些学说都与特定的时代背景相适应，如外生绝对优势说适应于个体差异主要由天生决定的古代社会，内生绝对优势说主要适应于个体技能差异源于经验性学习的家庭手工作坊时期，外在相对优势说适应于以既定外生资源为主要生产要素的工业革命时期，协作收益说适应于机器化大生产迅速发展时期。然而，由于分工思想于自由竞争主张不相容，马歇尔就从外部经济来解释规模经济，从而导致了分工理论的转向和式微。显然，结合时代背景的演变，就可以更好地理解分工理论的演化。     

Modeling Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Armenia

This paper applies stochastic discount factor methodology to modeling the foreign exchange risk premium in Armenia. We use weekly data on foreign and domestic currency deposits, which coexist in the Armenian banking system. This coexistence implies elimination of the cross-country risks and transaction costs, leaving the pure foreign exchange risk. It is shown that there exists a systematic time-varying risk premium that increases with maturity. Using two-currency affine term structure and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-in-mean models, we find that the central bank's foreign exchange market interventions and ratio-of-deposit volumes significantly affect public expectations about foreign exchange fluctuations. We also find that the foreign exchange risk premium accounts for the largest part of the interest differential. When accounting for economic and institutional differences, our results can be extended to other countries.     

Smith,Marshall and Young on division of labour and economic growth

The aim of this paper is to reconstruct the theory of division of labour and economic growth proposed by Adam Smith and developed by Alfred Marshall and Allyn Young. In their approach division of labour is the main engine of growth and plays a central role in capital accumulation and technological progress. We suggest that, according to their theory: 1) economic growth is endogenous; 2) it has the nature of a cumulative, path-dependent process; and 3) it can be described as a disequilibrium process, supported by competitive forces. We argue that these aspects make the contributions of Smith, Marshall and Young still insightful for the development of growth theory, even in the light of the modern approach of endogenous growth theory.     

Oman's monetary policy transmission process under the fixed peg: some empirical puzzles

This paper highlights that an open economy, like Oman, could often enjoy partial monetary policy independence despite operating with a fixed peg, which may appear as a clear violation of the ‘macroeconomic trilemma'. While explaining the country-specific factors that create the scope for partial monetary policy independence, the paper underscores that for meaningful use of this partial monetary policy independence to attain domestic goals of inflation and output, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy must work effectively. Empirical analyses presented in this paper for Oman, however, suggest the presence of not only the ‘interest rate puzzle’ but also the ‘IS puzzle’ and the ‘Phillips curve puzzle’, which together signal the presence of significant transmission weaknesses. The paper, thus, concludes that costs stemming from loss of any monetary policy independence because of the fixed peg may not be very significant for Oman, and hence, any alternative exchange rate regime cannot be viewed as appropriate just on the grounds that an alternative regime could deliver greater monetary policy independence.     

How to build market societies: The paradoxes of neoliberal revolution

Neil Smith's Uneven Development has had profound impacts on the way geographers have come to understand questions related to space and nature. In this short piece I explain what UD brings to a longstanding literature and set of debates that is commonly named ‘the Agrarian Question’ and revolves around agriculture's unique relationship to capitalist relations of production. Smith's distinctive approach that sees nature and space as produced by capitalist relations of production helps resolve some of the longstanding debates within the study of agriculture. While this piece applies the production of nature thesis to one particular social scientific field, I hope it points to the currency and significance of this understanding for many other academic fields and for political economy more generally.