马克思转形理论的一个数理证明--兼评鲍特凯维兹关于转形问题的研究

转形问题被称作"经济学的世界难题",争论了一百多年至今没有定论.本文在全世界首次成功地证明了马克思的平均利润总额等于剩余价值总额、生产价格总额等于价值总额这两个等式同时成立这一所谓"转形问题"是完全正确的,我们的证明方法是建立在对马克思经济学的辨证本质的理解和领悟之上的.本文还对鲍特凯维兹关于马克思转形问题的研究方法进行了批评.     

中国股权溢价之谜的检验--Hansen-Jagannathan方法的应用

本文估计的中国投资者的相对风险回避系数远远大于10,远大于Mehra和Prescott(1985)所认可的最高水平,证实了中国股市存在股权溢价之谜,并指出了解释中国股权溢价之谜的潜在研究途径。     

基于Smith预估的神经网络循环流化床锅炉床温控制

料床温度是循环流化床锅炉正常运行的一个重要指标,它影响着锅炉的燃烧效率和污染物排放速率。在燃烧过程中,它具有时变性、大惯性和大滞后的特点。针对这一问题,将BP-Smith预估控制算法应用于循环流化床锅炉床温控制,该算法基于BP整定的PID控制,提高对被控对象参数变化的自适应能力和Smith预估控制能够克服对象的大迟延特性,并对BP-Smith预估控制进行了仿真。仿真结果表明,所设计的控制系统性能均优于常规PID控制和Smith预估补偿PID控制系统。     

Predictability in Consumption Growth and Equity Returns: A Bayesian Investigation

We use a Bayesian method to estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model featuring long-run risks. Although the model is generally consistent with consumption and dividend growth moments in annual data, the conditional mean of consumption growth (a latent process) is not persistent enough to satisfy the restriction that the price-dividend ratio be an affine function of the latent process. The model also requires relatively high intertemporal elasticity of substitution to match the low volatility of the risk-free return. These two restrictions lead to the equity volatility puzzle. The model accounts for only 50% of the total variation in asset returns.     

Re-examining the risk–return relationship in banks using quantile regression

Financial data for the US banks listed during 2001–2007 are analysed to re-examine the risk–return relationship in the banking industry. A key feature of this study is the analysis of the changing distribution of return on equity across banks and over time by the quantile regression (hereafter QR) model and a meaningful comparative analysis with the results of the ordinary least squares estimates is examined. The following conclusions are drawn from the empirical results. First, while a positive risk–return relationship is presented for the profitable banks, the risk–return relationship is negative for the profitless banks. Second, the ‘V’ shape relationship between bank risk and profitability identified by this study could satisfactorily explain the existing risk–return puzzle among the prior empirical studies.     

我国A股市场中的波动性之谜与市场情绪

本文使用Campbell和Shiller(1988)基于对数线性RVF的VAR非线性Wald检验方法对我国A股1994-2009期间的数据进行实证研究,结果表明样本期间我国A股股价相对其基础价值表现出"过度波动"的迹象,无论是常数超额收益率模型还是V-CAPM模型都无法对此进行解释。通过进一步定义市场情绪指数来分析这种"波动性之谜"现象的原因,结果发现市场情绪和股市"过度波动"之间存在相互作用机制,市场情绪能够对股价波动提供额外的解释。     

公司购并利益相关者的利益均衡吗?——基于公司购并动因的风险溢价套利分析

本文利用信息经济学与博弈论理论 ,从公司利益相关者的利益均衡角度对公司购并进行动态博弈分析。为刻画行为主体利益动态均衡过程 ,论文应用Rubinstein讨价还价模型 ,揭示公司购并过程中利益均衡及其对公司购并的推动作用。为解开“购并公司股东损益之谜” ,论文引进购并公司信息占优条件下的风险套利模型 ,分析购并公司溢价购并损失在市场背后的风险套利补偿。在此基础上 ,采用市场分析法对上市公司购并利益分配进行实证 ,检验结果显示中国证券市场同样存在“购并公司股东损益之谜”。     

Finance theory: A house without windows

In this paper we aim to build on the existing critical finance literature by exploring how finance theory maintains both its momentum and hegemony. More specifically, by using an example at the core of finance theory (namely, portfolio asset allocation) we illustrate how finance keeps itself artificially alive by taking data from the outside world, often ignoring the rich complexities of the context which has given rise to the data, and using these ‘new facts’ to create puzzles which then lead onto more activity to see how the accepted core can or cannot be extended to incorporate the ‘new facts’. Against this process the paper then shows how the more obvious approach of engaging with the various participants can lead to greater insight and understanding. Given this approach, facts are not just anomalies which need to be explained away but part of the environment which help us to understand the various activities of individuals and organisations. The paper concludes by outlining a research agenda which develops a number of streams of research in critical finance and needs to be addressed in an open manner if traditional finance is to move from being closed and increasingly moribund to a subject which captures the vibrancy and dynamism of financial activities/markets across the globe.     

亚当·斯密税收原则的重新解读

作为最被推崇的亚当.斯密的税收原则体系并不完备,一些其他原则,诸如不侵害公民的自由权、以国情为原则、避免使资本外逃及引导公民行为等也是构成税收原则体系不可或缺的部分;另外,各税收原则一般很难兼容。在税制改革时并不必然需要,也不可能符合所有原则。因而税种的设置要依据不同时期的经济和社会发展目标以及各税种的具体情况,对各原则有所取舍。     

浙江中小企业的现状、问题及发展对策

沐浴着新世纪的阳光 ,新一代的思想政治工作者接受着瞬息万变的政治、经济、科技、道德、文化辐射 ,该怎样面对新实际、新情况 ,探索工作新思路、新途径成为现实课题。本文试图提出学习型思想政治工作者概念 ,以研究新时期思想政治工作者如何跨越“老政工”干部形象光环 ,塑造