The communication in the actual socio-economic environment

The communication, joined with all its problems, became the topic for interesting studies during the mid of 90s. This attention was due to the publication of＂Being Digital＂, wrote by Nicholas Negroponte, the first book that analyzed the communication environment in a comprehensive way. The novelty of this original book, which was immediately perceived by both the scientific and socio-economic environment, was twofold： The forecast of the revolutionary impact of digital technologies applied to the communication and the subsequent modified scenario. Nevertheless, the described scenario was contradicted or confirmed several times during last years.
The linkage between communication and socio-economic environment, after the publication of that book, represented a special focus for the scientific society since the beginning of the new millennium. The evolution of technologies involved several structural components in many different phases during last years and generated a lot of deep changes in a short time. These developing conditions made really difficult any forecasting attempt about the evolution of each technological component and, consequently, any reliable scenario for the communication environment.
The functional update of existing technologies leaded to the appearance of a new medium： Internet. This medium started with revolutionary peculiarities： low access and operating costs, multimediality, bidirectional way of usage and, above all, planetary target. The new communication tool seems to be a good candidate to substitute many of the former media or, at least, to reduce their usage in a meaningful way. Vice versa, the socio-economic effect of Internet was very weak： The new medium appears as simply added to the previous shape without meaningful influences on the diffusion of traditional media.
Nevertheless, the advantages offered by the technological innovation was not reserved only to Internet, but deeply changed all the media influencing particularly their way of supplying service. The most meaningful effects of these innovations involved both the diffusion systems and trading approach so generating a special attention also by politic environments.
The final objective of this paper is to analyze the evolution of the communication environment due to the innovation and to depict the actual communication offer. This approach will be useful to verify the conditions for reliable definition of scenarios.     

Conditions and intervention strategies for the deliberate acceleration of socio-technical transitions: lessons from a comparative multi-level analysis of two historical case studies in Dutch and Danish heating

ABSTRACT

Policy-oriented transition frameworks such as Strategic Niche Management, Transition Management, and Technological Innovation Systems offer limited analytical traction on deliberately accelerated socio-technical transitions. Using the Multi-Level Perspective as guiding framework, we therefore inductively explore the political acceleration of socio-technical transitions by investigating two deliberately accelerated heating transitions: the transition from coal and oil to natural gas in the Netherlands (1948–1973), and the transition from oil to district heating in Denmark (1945–1990), to draw lessons about the conditions and intervention strategies that facilitate rapid socio-technical change. We find that both cases were characterised by weakened regimes, stabilised niche-innovations, focusing events, and consensus between policymakers and business actors. User resistance was also low in both cases, partly because of public policies. Different focusing events in each case produced problem-driven versus opportunity-driven transition pathways; the former destabilised existing regimes but generated future-oriented uncertainty, while the latter facilitated rapid closure.     

Socio-technical challenges in the development of digital multimedia broadcasting: A survey of Korean mobile television development

This paper examines the prospectus of Digital Multimedia Broadcasting from the technical, economic and regulatory issues. This paper attempts to gain a better understanding of how DMB will evolve and stabilize in next generation network environments. Two research questions guide this study: (1) How does DMB trigger a change in policy, market and industry structure? (2) What are the driving forces of the rapid DMB development in Korea? As these questions involve socio-technical issues, this study uses a socio-technical perspective to investigate the complex relations between the social and technical aspects of DMB by highlighting the co-evolving nature, diversity, and interface between different driving forces and policy. The finding is that Korean DMB is the outcome of a proactive strategy of a telecom carrier and the Korean government's industrial policy to support such strategy. Among the push-oriented trajectory, however, non-technical issues such as users, market and regulation are left behind, which reveals the disjunction of the DMB development in terms of the socio-technical system perspective. The development of DMB sheds light on the growing challenges in the dynamics of industry, regulation, and technology.     

Robust min–max portfolio strategies for rival forecast and risk scenarios

We consider an extension of the Markowitz mean–variance optimization framework to multiple return and risk scenarios. It is well known that asset return forecasts and risk estimates are inherently inaccurate. The method proposed provides a means for considering rival representations of the future. The optimal portfolio is computed, simultaneously with the worst case, to take account of all rival scenarios. This is a min-max strategy which is essentially equivalent to a robust pooling of the scenarios. Robustness is ensured by the noninferiority of min–max. For example, a basic worst-case optimal return is guaranteed in view of multiple return scenarios. If robustness happens to have too high a cost, guided by the min–max pooling, it is also possible to explore other pooling alternatives. A min–max algorithm is used to solve the problem and illustrate the robust character of min–max with return and risk scenarios. We study the properties of the min–max risk–return frontier and compare with the potentially suboptimal worst-case where the investment strategy and the worst case are computed separately.     

基于情景的操作风险计量方法研究

《巴塞尔资本协议II》鼓励金融机构使用高级计量法计算监管资本,以此更加准确地反映金融机构的操作风险水平。其中,基于情景的计量法融合损失分布法、记分卡法的优势,能够更加前瞻性地计量操作风险资本。本文深入研究基于情景的计量法的流程、建模技术以及实际应用情况,提出应重视SBA在我国的应用和实践、建立完整的基于隋景的计量法体系、注重克服基于SBA可能存在的问题等建议,有利于国内银行根据实际情况考虑使用SBA计量操作风险监管资本和经济资本。     

Bounded socio-technical experiments as agents of systemic change: The case of a zero-energy residential building

Large-scale shifts in dominant technologies are the necessary components of a transition toward sustainability. Such shifts are difficult because, in addition to technological innovation, they require changes in the existing institutions, professional norms, belief systems and, in some cases, also lifestyles. In the languages of cognitive and policy sciences, higher order learning on a scale ranging from individuals to professional and business communities, to the society at large, is needed. Higher order learning is especially crucial in the types of innovations that depend mainly on synthesis of existing technologies and know-how to achieve radical reductions in energy and material consumption, as is the case with high performance buildings. One way to facilitate this type of learning is through experimentation with new technologies and services.Drawing on our earlier concept of a Bounded Socio-Technical Experiment, in this paper we propose a four-level conceptual framework for mapping and monitoring the learning processes taking place in a BSTE, and apply it to an empirical case study of a zero-fossil-fuel residential building in Boston. Three major conclusions are that: learning took place both on the individual and team level, that individual learning primarily (but not exclusively) involved changes in problem definitions; and that team learning consisted of participant turnover until congruence in worldviews and interpretive frames was achieved. This case study also shows that we must think of innovating in building design as both a process and a product, and that both must be considered in the future efforts to replicate this building.This study highlights that technological innovation about technology as much as about people, their perceptions, and their interactions with each other and with the material world. Sustainability will not be reached by technology alone, but by deep learning by individuals, groups, professional societies and other institutions.     

Future S&T management policy issues—2025 global scenarios

This article presents four scenarios depicting science and technology (S&T) management dilemmas of the next two decades. The scenarios concern the balance between risk and promise, between the need to steer the directions of S&T, to minimize risk, and the need to maintain a free and unconstrained S&T agenda. These scenarios were constructed in the third year of the Millennium Project's study of this topic. The scenarios were formed in an interactive process with the project's international participants. The key policies that were found to be useful in all of the scenarios include (1) when considering the possibility of the misuse of weapons of mass destruction by terrorists, include the possibility of misuse by a single individual, acting alone; (2) establish mechanisms and techniques for making possible the explicit unintended consequences of scientific research and technology, including malicious uses; (3) for desirable technologies, where it may not be possible to avoid significant risks, develop mitigation strategies in parallel; (4) teach science ethics.     

Predicting multi-faceted activity-travel adjustment strategies in response to possible congestion pricing scenarios using an Internet-based stated adaptation experiment

This paper reports the estimation of several discrete choice models describing reactions of individuals to congestion pricing scenarios. The models were estimated on data obtained in a stated adaptation experiment that was administered through the Internet and designed to examine how individuals adjust their activity-travel patterns. An activity-based approach is used meaning that all choice facets of activity patterns are taken into account as well as a complete set of activities. Estimates of price elasticities of travel demand are in line with other findings reported in the literature. Results of the stated adaptation experiment suggest that changing route or departure time is the most important way of adapting work trips, whereas public transport and working at home play a more limited role. For non-work activities changing route and switching to bike are the dominant responses.     

5G+物联网环境下智能金融场景应用的分析与建议

数字化的金融与数字化的物品有机集成与整合,可以使物联网中物品的物品属性与价值属性有机融合,革新现有业务体系,重构物联网金融业务生态体系。基于智能金融场景应用的发展思路和关键技术分析对银行实现金融科技生态圈建设、打造数字化银行至关重要。为此,结合商业银行物联网金融场景生态进程发展情况,提出具体建议,为我国商业银行物联网环境下金融场景创新应用提供决策参考。