交互设计初探

交互设计这门新学科的诞生归功于人们对交互体验的日益关注。作为一种让产品易用、有效并让使用者愉悦的技术，交互设计以用户为中心，采用人物角色（persona）、脚本提纲（scenarios）等方法，真正从用户角度出发来设计产品。     

Exploring sustainability transitions in the electricity sector with socio-technical pathways

This paper analyses sustainability transitions in the electricity system, using recent theories on socio-technical pathways. The paper describes three possible transition pathways and indicates the implications for (grid) infrastructures. The ‘transformation pathway’ is characterised by a further hybridization of the infrastructure; in the ‘reconfiguration pathway’, internationalisation and scale increase in renewable generation lead to the emergence of a ‘Supergrid’. The ‘de-alignment and re-alignment pathway’ is dominated by distributed generation and a focus on more local infrastructures. We suggest that this pathway, which involves a major restructuring of the electricity system, is less likely than the other two. The de-alignment and re-alignment pathway is therefore more dependent on external developments and/or strong policy interventions. All pathways, however, require major investments in infrastructure and innovative technologies.     

可达性因子影响下城市土地利用动态模拟——以瑞典J6nkoping市为例

城市交通布局对城市形态具有重大影响,也对城市的发展方向起着重大的引导作用。以瑞典Jonkoping市为例,采用CLUE—S模型模拟不同交通情景下的城市发展动态变化。首先,基于2000年土地利用数据,选择影响土地利用变化的驱动因子构建Logistic回归方程。然后利用CLUE—S模型,在模型检验和参数验证的基础上,模拟未来25年不同交通情景下城市形态空间格局的变化。结果表明：可达性因子的选择对于改善用地类型的回归结果具有显著影响;不同的道路类型和交通设施等级对各用地类型转换概率有不同程度的影响。对两种不同的交通规划情景下的土地利用空间分布格局的动态模拟发现,在未来交通规划情景下,土地利用动态度增加,且在城市中心区交通发达的区域,城市呈现填空式拓展,新增加的城市用地分布比较集中;城市外围表现出较强的沿交通线的拓展趋势,城市空间结构与城市交通互动关系明显。     

Ecological response to urban development in a changing socio-economic and climate context: Policy implications for balancing regional development and habitat conservation

Rapid land use/cover changes (LUCC) have triggered severe habitat degradation over recent decades. Existing studies mainly focus on how LUCC per se affects habitat quality, while less attention is paid to the integration of LUCC, socio-economic development and climate change as a land use system, and to investigate their synergistic impacts on habitat quality. This study addresses this issue by incorporating a top-down system dynamic model, a bottom-up cellular automata and a habitat quality assessment model. The potential impacts of urban growth, socio-economic development and climate change on habitat quality of Hubei Province, China, were predicted under the four IPCC RCP scenarios. Overall, construction land was predicted to expand fast whereas forested land and cultivated land to shrink significantly from 2015 to 2030, but RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios may maintain higher habitat quality compared with RCP 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Severe habitat degradation is likely to occur in the megacity’s surrounding ecosystems under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, while the degradation is more likely to occur in middle-sized and small cities under RCP 4.5 and 6.0 scenarios. Further, our findings suggest that fixed asset investments and technology innovation play important roles in mitigating the negative impacts of urban and socio-economic development on habitat quality. This study should provide a useful approach for decision makers to design alternative development scenarios and to strike a balance between regional development and habitat conservation.     

常见空气压缩机工作原理及适用场景研究

我国经济在近年来发展迅速,人们生活水平不断提高,对各类物品需求广泛.为满足物品增长需求,工业领域也在高速发展.在工业领域,无论是重工业,还是轻工业,空气压缩机的应用都十分广泛.当前市场上的空气压缩机类型主要有三种,分别适应不同的工作场景.本文对其工艺流程、参数、工作原理进行一一分析,而后分别以使用用途、设备类型进行分类...     

颠覆性技术创新的政策需求分析——以智能交通为例

由于颠覆性技术创新具有科学突破性、长周期性、替代性、产业爆发性、价值跃迁性等特点,需要在不同的发展阶段进行不同的政策支持,特别是对于政府导向的重大颠覆性技术创新,更需要在关键技术研发和应用场景创造方面给与大力支持。智能交通作为政府导向的颠覆性技术创新,随着智能交通技术由基础技术体系、关键技术向技术融合发展转变,其政策支持也经历了由支持基础研发为主的供给型政策到以支持应用示范为主的需求型政策,再到以财税优惠和产业规制为主的环境型政策的转变。同时,本文认为应该注重颠覆性技术的阶段识别和应用场景开放,完善早期的培育政策和后期的市场引导政策,才能更好的促进我国颠覆性技术的产生和发展。     

The futures of genetically-modified foods: Global threat or panacea?

Genetically-modified foods represent a potential solution of the world food crises, but they are also feared as potential dangers for human health, environment and biodiversity. Considering the history of genetically-modified foods and their present situation, this study develops and validates three complex scenarios regarding the future evolution of genetically-modified foods. The plausibility of these scenarios is tested using five food experts, as well as two demographically-representative groups of French and U.K. respondents. The present situation and potential evolution of genetically-modified foodsis also analyzed using the Innovation Diffusion Theory, as well as a Value-based Perspective.     

二元技术能力、制度环境与创业绩效

社会技术能力是共享经济下企业适应动态环境的一种有效策略，具有挣脱自身资源束缚，赢得外部支撑力的作用。明确提出物理技术能力与社会技术能力是导致企业创业绩效差异的关键，并根据权变理论提出制度环境（正式制度约束与非正式制度约束）对二者关系的调节作用，进而通过层次回归进行实证检验。研究结果显示：①物理技术能力与社会技术能力均能促进创业绩效提升；②正式制度约束能够有效促进物理技术能力和社会技术能力对创业绩效的影响，非正式制度约束会减弱物理技术能力对创业绩效的影响，但会增强社会技术能力对创业绩效的影响。     

Seismic vulnerability assessment of historical urban centres: case study of the old city centre of Faro,Portugal

The necessity of implementing seismic vulnerability assessment procedures to the Portuguese building stock has become urgent as recent predictions indicate the possibility of the occurrence of an earthquake similar to the well-known 1755 Lisbon earthquake within the next 50 years. Obviously, at first instance, large-scale procedures should be used rather than more extensive and accurate methodologies suited for individual buildings assessment. Moreover, it is fundamental to operate in the most vulnerable areas in our built environment, typically, the historical urban centres. As it is recognised, it is within these areas, that old masonry buildings are generally concentrated, being both the most representative and vulnerable constructive typology. Comprising 354 buildings, the case study of the old city centre of Faro is herein presented aiming at analysing and evaluating the seismic vulnerability of its old masonry building stock. In order to achieve these objectives, a vulnerability-index-based methodology was used for the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the old masonry buildings belonging to the historical centre of Faro (Ribeirinha area) carried out through detailed inspection and survey. The results obtained were analysed using a geographical information system tool. The integration of such vulnerability and loss results represents a valuable tool for city councils and/or regional authorities to plan interventions, on the basis of a global view of the site under analysis, leading this way to more accurate and comprehensive risk mitigation strategies which comply with the requirements of safety and emergency planning. The application of this large-scale scoring methodology has confirmed moderate-to-high values for the vulnerability of this particular area, which combined with its high seismicity, may be quite alarming.     

Technology roadmap through fuzzy cognitive map-based scenarios: the case of wind energy sector of a developing country

In this research, a national-level wind energy roadmap is developed through scenario planning. Multiple future scenarios are developed using the fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) approach. This research has extended technology roadmapping (TRM) through FCM-based scenario analysis. Building scenarios with FCM is a new approach, and for the first time, to the best of our knowledge, FCM-based scenarios are developed for the wind energy sector of a developing country. Based on these multiple scenarios, a TRM has been developed. Scenario planning and TRM techniques are combined in this study. This research approach is applied to the wind energy sector of Pakistan as a research case. The TRM has four layers: strategic objectives, targets, barriers, and action items. Expert judgement is used to develop scenarios and TRMs.