21世纪初人口场景预测研究回顾

人口预测方法可以分为场景预测和概率预测两大类,虽然场景预测方法由来已久,但仍然有很强的生命力。进入21世纪,一些西方学者采用该方法在人口迁移预测、人口动量预测以及人口生育率预测等方面成果显著。由于场景预测方法在中、长期预测上更为准确,因此进入新世纪,国内一些学者也运用该方法主要进行了人口总量预测。     

21世纪初人口场景预测研究回顾

人口预测方法可以分为场景预测和概率预测两大类,虽然场景预测方法由来已久,但仍然有很强的生命力。进入21世纪,一些西方学者采用该方法在人口迁移预测、人口动量预测以及人口生育率预测等方面成果显著。由于场景预测方法在中、长期预测上更为准确,因此进入新世纪,国内一些学者也运用该方法主要进行了人口总量预测。     

Early evidence on balloon performance

Balloon loans have become increasingly popular in recent years. For this reason, it is important to understand their features, assess their potential risks, and monitor their early performance. This article focuses on these topics. The first section discusses balloon characteristics and mortgage choice. The second section discusses expected balloon performance. The third section provides an econometric model for monitoring current performance. The fourth and fifth sections describe the data and results, respectively. The final section summarizes the article and offers some concluding remarks. The fundamental conclusions are that (1) early balloon performance is slightly worse than expected (i.e., balloons are not matching fixed-rate performance prior to balloon reset dates); (2) balloon performance is, however, within the range expected over the full term of the loans (i.e., performance worse than fixed-rate performance, but better than ARM performance); and (3) balloons have important characteristics that help mitigate systematic risk.     

区块链技术在市场监管中创新性应用与挑战

区块链技术在市场监管中的应用可以实现监管手段的创新,提升监管效能。论文从区块链技术特点和市场监管部门职能出发,归类阐述了追溯、政务服务、信用监管、网络交易监管和知识产权监管五大创新性应用场景和一些成熟案例,进一步指出了区块链在市场监管中应用的挑战,为区块链技术在市场监管领域深入应用指明了方向。     

Management strategies for tropical rain forests: Results of ecological models and requirements for ecological-economic modelling

In this study, we use two ecological forest models, namely FORMIX3 and FORREG, to analyse the impact of logging on tropical rain forests and to discuss needs for and problems of an economic extension of these models. The FORMIX3 model simulates spatial-temporal dynamics of tropical forests using an individual and process based approach. The main processes included are growth, mortality, competition, and regeneration of trees. The FORREG model simulates wood growth of tropical forests at landscape scale based on differential equations. Regeneration capabilities of logged forests are analysed and compared for different logging strategies. While conventional management strategies with a short logging cycle (here 20 years) produce low yields and cause severe changes in tree species composition, a reduced impact logging strategy with a longer cycle (here 60 years) leads to relatively high yields and causes moderate changes in species composition. Thus, longer logging cycles are preferable from an ecological point of view. However, also economic aspects influence logging decisions, thus a closer analysis of additional economic aspects of forest management is inevitable. We discuss which economic shortcomings of present rain forest models should be dealt with in the future and which additional data is needed as a consequence.     

“蓝箱”政策改革对中国总体扭曲性支持的影响

利用"假设削减方案"的研究方法,模拟了"蓝箱"政策改革对中国总体扭曲性支持(OTDS)的影响,并与主要的利益相关者美国、欧盟、日本、加拿大和巴西进行了对比,结果表明:"新蓝箱"将不会给中国国内支持带来较大冲击;而欧盟和美国将会受到较大冲击,但执行期结束时他们仍然能保留较大的扭曲性支持空间;"蓝箱"政策改革可能导致欧盟和美国调整国内支持政策,这将给中国等发展中国家的农业生产和贸易带来不确定性。     

Developing Moral Principles and Scenarios in the Light of Diversity: An Extension to the Multidimensional Ethics Scale

The purpose of this article is to develop the multidimensional ethics scale and moral scenarios that allow or even support diversity in managers’ reactions when measuring their moral decision-making. This means that we expand the multidimensional ethics scale with a female ethics dimension and take a critical look at the previously used scenarios in the light of diversity. Furthermore, we develop two new scenarios in order to better attain diversity in managers’ moral decision-making. Diversity is primarily looked at from a gender perspective, meaning that we pay attention to the femininities and masculinities of the scale items and scenarios. In addition, we use the concept of social desirability to assess diversity as we presume that social desirability works against diversity. Our article builds on previous research using the multidimensional ethics scale. First, we present a summary of the theoretical dimensions of the original multidimensional ethics scale and extend the scale with female ethics principles to foster diversity. Second, we analyse and assess previously used moral scenarios in order to see how they permit the expression of diversity. Third, we develop two new scenarios based on the interviews conducted with female managers.     

不同土地利用情景下农村景观生态格局优化

景观格局优化是实现有限土地资源优化利用的有效途径。文章以重庆市江津区龙华镇为样区,设置4种不同土地利用情景,通过8个景观格局指数与生态阻力对各情景设置进行分析,在此基础上采用最小累积阻力模型,构建不同景观组分别对4种不同土地利用情景(基准情景、生态情景、发展情景、综合情景)的景观格局进行优化,遴选最佳优化路径。结果表明:样区耕地景观占比最大,这有助于促进景观生态功能的开发与利用;样区较高程度的景观破碎化与较差的景观连通性对景观生态功能的开发与利用产生较大的阻碍作用;比较4种土地利用情景,综合情景的生态源面积大于其它3种情景,且生态源的分布情况也较其它3种情景均匀;在构建生态廊道体系时,综合情景下的物质、能量及物种的流通性也较其它3种情景强;而且,综合情景下的生态节点跟其它3种情景相比,无论是在功能数量上还是在空间分布上,均具有更强的合理性。     

油库区火灾应急过程风险因素-事故情景结构方程模型研究

为了探讨油库区火灾应急过程中风险因素与事故情景间的量化作用关系，揭示事故发展演化的基本规律，通过对近50年来国内外240例油库区典型火灾爆炸事故的统计分析，从人-物-环境-管理4个方面，建立了二者间的结构方程模型。结果表明：各因素与情景间影响关系显著，其中人的因素影响系数最大，为0.46，且对火灾扩大的情景影响更大，而“误判断”这一具体因素事件最易发生。所构建的结构方程模型能较清晰地量化应急过程风险因素与情景间的作用关系，可为揭示事故发生发展的作用机理提供一定的科学依据，同时为油库区火灾事故应急安全管理提供参考。     

Navigating the socio-technical impacts of purchasing digitalisation: A multiple-case study

The wave of digitalisation is impacting companies at multiple levels. Beside the most researched impacts on manufacturing, also other business functions are subjected to the change. Among them, purchasing is expected to greatly benefit from digitalisation, if properly managed. This research analyses the digitalisation of the purchasing process, in terms of how and why it happens, and the co-evolution which is triggered on the social dimension. A multiple-case study approach is adopted, analysing eight companies from industries characterized by different digital intensity levels but all at a relatively advanced stage of digitalisation of the purchasing department. The results show how different technological innovation approaches (i.e., automation and/or augmentation) impact the evolution of the purchasing department's social dimension in terms of autonomy, job enlargement, competences, internal and external collaboration. A new framework describing how automation and augmentation impact on purchasing social dimension, as well as purchasing efficiency and effectiveness, is proposed as main theoretical contribution. The study combines the socio-technical systems perspective with the automation-augmentation paradox and describe the strong relationship between purchasing departments' social and technical dimensions, offering managers insights on handling a purchasing digitalisation process, simultaneously managing the technical and social dimensions impacted along the process.