Bringing the sharing-sparing debate down to the ground—Lessons learnt for participatory scenario development

The concepts of Land Sharing (LSH) and Land Sparing (LSP) shall help to manage trade-offs between land use and biodiversity conservation but applications in real world contexts are scarce. We review the literature on scenario and stakeholder processes and present a participatory approach to translate the LSH/LSP concept into practice. It is based on a scenario definition process harmonized across five case studies in Europe and resulted in semi-quantitative participative LSH and LSP scenarios. Harmonization eases comparability among case studies despite fundamentally different scenarios due to heterogeneous conditions across the regions. A key challenge was the right level of standardization for the scenario process to reach a common understanding across case study regions while acknowledging regional peculiarities. The resulting scenarios support for regional specific planning recommendations and can be input to quantitative ecosystem service and biodiversity models.     

How attachment affects user stickiness on live streaming platforms: A socio-technical approach perspective

User stickiness is an important factor in the development of live streaming shopping platforms, which describes the degree of users' attention to the platforms. Although some e-commerce websites have provided live streaming services to improve the purchase experience of consumers, few people know how the services affect user stickiness. Building upon attachment theory and socio-technical approach, we developed a theoretical model to understand how live streaming service affects the user stickiness through users' attachment, which is tested by using 425 live streaming shopping platform's users. The results showed that technical factors (synchronicity and vicarious expression) and social factors (interaction and identification) positively affect emotional attachment to streamers and platform attachment respectively, which in turn increase the user stickiness.     

WIND-FLEX--一种新型的高速无线网络接口技术

WIND-FLEX是一种新型的 17GHz无线网络接口技术,具有高数据速率、高空间效率、灵活的设计、动态自适应和可配置等特点,能在时变信道条件下动态优化系统性能、有效载荷和QoS需求。文中首先介绍了 17GHz频带的管理状况和信道特点,然后分析了WIND-FLEX系统结构和网络结构,最后探讨了它的应用实例。     

Scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions reduction from tourism: an extended tourism satellite account approach in a regional setting

Tourism results in the emission of climate-changing greenhouse gases. There has been limited destination-focused quantitative analysis of how tourism might be reshaped to reduce these emissions. This paper uses an extended tourism environmental satellite account methodology to examine the case of tourism in Wales, a United Kingdom region. It shows how an estimate of the emissions associated with trips to, and in, the region – internally, from the rest of the UK and from abroad – can contribute to regional aspirations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis suggests that substantial emissions cuts are dependent upon technical developments outside of tourism itself. Four potential scenarios are devised and analysed. Scenario 1 shows the value of low carbon electricity production in cutting tourism-related emissions. Scenario 2 analyses a possible 50% fall in international arrivals and 10% increase in UK domestic arrivals – maintaining employment but reducing emissions. Scenario 3 shows the effects of switch from private to public transport modes for 50% of UK resident arrivals. Scenario 4 examines the outcomes of reducing ground transport emissions by using electric, biofuel and hybrid technologies. All scenarios cut emissions, none are highly effective and most are dependent on changes in society and governance.     

Regional integration,international liberalisation and the dynamics of industrial agglomeration

This paper presents a 3-region footloose-entrepreneur new economic geography model. Two symmetric regions are part of an economically integrated area (the Union), while the third region represents an outside trade partner. We explore how the spatial allocation of industrial production and employment within the Union is affected by changes in two aspects of trade liberalisation, regional integration and globalisation, conditional to the skill endowment and the market size of the outside region. Our main contribution pertains to the analysis of the local and global dynamics of the specified factor mobility process. We show that significant parameter ranges exist for which an asymmetric distribution of economic activities is one of the possible long-run outcomes which may allow a smooth transition to agglomeration (in contrast to the NEG typical catastrophic scenario). In addition, we show that multistability is pervasive and that some attractors are Milnor attractors. Both results reinforce the NEG narrative on the importance of initial conditions for the long-run location of industrial activity.     

Modelling the urban heat island effect of smart growth policy scenarios in Brisbane

Smart growth policy has been identified as a panacea to tackle a range of undesirable outcomes of sprawl development. Various neighbourhood planning concepts have been developed following smart growth principles such as transit oriented development, and infill development. Existing empirical studies, however, do not answer to a key policy question: can smart growth policies reduce the urban heat island (UHI) effect? If so, what type of smart growth policy would be most effective? This research examined the questions by deriving five alternative neighbourhood planning scenarios for Brisbane for 2023: a) business as usual, b) transit oriented development (TOD), c) infill development, d) motorway corridor oriented development, and e) sprawl development. The research utilises Landsat remote sensing images of 1991, 2004, and 2013 to: first, estimate and validate a Geographically Weighted Regression model in order to identify statistically significant factors influencing the UHI intensities in Brisbane; and second, predict the UHI intensities of the five policy scenarios. Two factors were identified to have significant influence on the UHI intensities in Brisbane: population density, and porosity. Results show that compared to the 2004 and 2013 levels, Brisbane will respectively experience a higher and lower levels of UHI effect in 2023, irrespective of the policy scenarios. On average, the infill development scenario, as a smart growth policy, has a marginally better potential to mitigate the UHI effect in Brisbane in 2023 compared to the sprawl development scenario conditional on the definition applied in this research. The UHI effect would be more equitably balanced spatially under the sprawl development scenario.     

Dynamic simulation of forest management normative scenarios: the case of timber plantations in the southern Chile

Accounting for spatial issues (spatially explicit simulation, geographical amenities and advantages of land use and cover changes, etc.) to build prospective scenarios is a crucial issue for better assessment of possible impacts on the environment. Such spatialized scenarios and their implications allow societies to reduce the uncertainty of the future by exploring various strategies for land use changes. Despite the wide diversity in existing scenario-building techniques, two different approaches can be distinguished (exploratory vs. normative) for their methodological implications. The originality in this study comes from the use of a relevant exploratory (dynamic) approach to map normative scenarios which, in most cases, are represented throughout the combination of narratives and synchronic land use and cover maps. The objective of the article is to apply this dynamic exploratory simulation approach to spatialize normative scenarios within the framework of forest management in southern Chile. In the results, two contrasting images of the future are compared, with the preservation of native forests on one hand and the spread of exotic timber plantations on the other.     

SCENARIO GENERATION FOR OPERATIONAL RISK

Operational risk is an increasingly important area of risk management. Scenarios are an important modelling tool in operational risk management as alternative viable methods may not exist. This can be due to challenging modelling, data and implementation issues, and other methods fail to take into account expert information. The use of scenarios has been recommended by regulators; however, scenarios can be unreliable, unrealistic and fail to take into account quantitative data. These problems have also been identified by regulators such as Basel, and presently little literature exists on addressing the problem of generating scenarios for operational risk. In this paper we propose a method for generating operational risk scenarios. We employ the method of cluster analysis to generate scenarios that enable one to combine expert opinion scenarios with quantitative operational risk data. We show that this scenario generation method leads to significantly improved scenarios and significant advantages for operational risk applications. In particular for operational risk modelling, our method leads to resolving the key problem of combining two sources of information without eliminating the information content gained from expert opinions, tractable computational implementation for operational risk modelling, improved stress testing, what‐if analyses and the ability to apply our method to a wide range of quantitative operational risk data (including multivariate distributions). We conduct numerical experiments on our method to demonstrate and validate its performance and compare it against scenarios generated from statistical property matching for comparison. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于时间维度的组织学习理论——组织从未来可能的情景中学习的模型

基于组织学习时空理论的时间维度,提出了组织从未来可能的情景中学习的模型。该模型包含四个方面:"知",通过情景构建,从未来可能的情景中获取知识;"行",将从未来可能的情景中学习到的知识运用于实践;"知"到"行"的转化;评估从未来可能的情景中学习的有效性。该模型详细阐述了这四个方面的方法和步骤,并提出了相应的管理措施。最后,总结了理论和实践贡献,并指出了存在的不足和未来的研究方向。